Time For Some Great Game Theory

Time For Some Great Game Theory Read about how Putin’s war on Ukraine is playing out in India. Received this from a friend? [SUBSCRIBE]( CRITICAL STATE Your weekly foreign policy fix. [The World]( [INKSTICK]( If you read just one thing… … read about how Putin’s war on Ukraine is playing out in India. While people on social media understandably worry about a third World War spilling over from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there’s an older kind of political maneuvering under way. For nations like China and India, which have both claims at regional hegemony and interest in balancing neighbors against one another, the massive shift of Russian forces, combined with the US- and EU-led efforts to sanction and isolate the Russian economy, mean a rethinking of existing power dynamics and longstanding partner relationships. At The New Statesman, [Emily Tamkin describes]( the predicament for India after decades of tacit support for Soviet and then Russian imperial projects. Tamkin writes “In more recent years, however, China’s threatening rise has pushed India closer to the US. Still, the Indian leadership has not wanted to align itself with the US completely, out of a fear of alienating Russia and losing it to China or pushing it closer to Pakistan. In either case Russia could further empower a more immediate Indian adversary.” Much of the posturing is about conventional military concerns, like tanks and anti-aircraft systems. Before the first World War, the jockeying over alliances and allies in Central and South Asia was dismissively referred to as “The Great Game.” This time, however, the countries playing are Russia, China, India, Pakistan, and the United States, and each one has a nuclear arsenal. What Russians Lost From the outside, it can be hard to parse the slide from a [managed autocracy to despotism](. There are degrees of unfreedom, felt keenly by some and less so by others, which can shift until they are felt by everyone at once. Writing at UnHerd, [Ben Judah describes]( the Russia he knew as open to cosmopolitan travelers, and how abruptly that world has been shut off. “Friends are booking flights to Tashkent. The FSB are interrogating them at the border. Others are panicking; there are hardly any flights left: they’re all booked up, everything’s grounded, sanctions have closed allied airspace in every direction,” writes Judah. In his telling, Judah compares the plight of the Russians he knew, who had dreamed and marched for a country free from autocracy and corruption, to that of other lost generations of reformers. This includes the failed Decemberists of 19th century Tsarist Russia, and it includes the same dreamers in Aleppo and Hong Kong, who saw hope ground away by war and repression, respectively. [FORWARD TO A FRIEND]( Lost Futures In Coal Presents Since May 2011, Brazilian coal mining company VALE has operated in Mozambique’s Tete province. Journalist Estacio Valoi, in partnership with Mozambican NGO Justiça Ambiental, [reports]( that more than 1,300 people have been displaced by the mines, many into homes that have cracked and crumbled from the explosives used in mining. The water and air around the mine, and around the new homes of the relocated people, is dangerously high, with possible risk of nervous system damage. This harm is on top of the disruption of livelihoods dating back to 2008, when the mines were first planned, and from which promised compensation is still yet to come. VALE has expressed an interest in selling the mine to a firm in India, once the government of Mozambique approves, but the investigation suggests that regardless of ownership, the mine has tremendous unmet obligations to the health and well being of the people whose lives it uprooted. [FORWARD TO A FRIEND]( [ ] DEEP DIVE Archetypes of Autocracy: Part II Last week on Deep Dive, we looked at how leadership transitions within autocracies can shift the balance between managed hybrid autocracy and concentrated personalist rule. This week, we’ll talk about how the degree and style of repression by an autocrat can signal strength or weakness to internal security forces that may otherwise orchestrate a coup. Autocrats often feel immovable until they aren’t. The forces that keep a single leader in play can, as we saw last week, be subject to a delicate balance of power by other elites. They can also, instead, be the result of a single leader using loyalists to successfully undermine and purge rivals. These strategies of court politics, which appear opaque to outsiders, shape the court of nations and governments. They can also influence the flow of information to a central autocrat, which must then act on internal information in the absence of external and public assessments. In “[Tenure through Tyranny? Repression, Dissent, and Leader Removal in Africa and Latin America, 1990–2006](,” authors Christian Davenport, Babak Rezaee Daryakenari, Reed M Wood argue that “incumbents are vulnerable to coup d’ état when government repression is perceived as weaker than would normally be expected for a given challenge. By contrast, removal via revolution becomes increasingly likely when repression dramatically exceeds the levels that would normally be warranted given the extant challenge.” In other words, when an autocrat is focused on staying in power, they have to calibrate repression in a way that mitigates both a risk of popular overthrow and prevents being ousted by the coordinated action of other elites, most especially those responsible for the military and other state security forces. For their research, Davenport et. al. looked at 69 African and Latin American states between 1990 and 2006. (Notably, a group that excludes any nations with nuclear arsenals). In their work, the authors found that harsh repression of public protest is a tactic used by autocrats to keep the support of military leaders, noting instances when militaries have gone out of their way to crack down on protest beyond what political leaders ordered. Conversely, when the repression is heavier than anticipated, it can motivate stronger showings by protesting masses, who interpret the repression as a sign that the regime is insecure and desperate to hold on to power. “We argue and demonstrate that overresponding to dissent is useful for preventing coups but can backfire and produce moral outrage that leads to revolution,” write Davenport et. al. “Consequently, leaders exist between a proverbial rock and a hard place: too much repression against dissent leads to ouster by the people; insufficient repression leads to removal by the military.” One limitation noted by the authors is that their work is limited to an era of only minimal internet penetration, and largely predates modern social media. The way protests and information about them can spread through social media can spur greater mobilization, unless those narratives too can be countered by the state apparatus. Firewalling in a population can further tip the hands in favor of repression, as it not only limits the reach of protestors and media outside state control, it also leaves organizers used to online communication scrambling to adopt pre-internet tactics. [LEARN MORE]( [FORWARD TO A FRIEND]( [• • •] SHOW US THE RECEIPTS Kate Kizer [implored]( Americans to look beyond the immediate military struggle in Ukraine, and toward one where the work of building democracy at home and abroad is undertaken seriously as a bulwark against future wars. Autocracy thrives not just on kleptocratic wealth, but also on imperialist dreams and xenophobic nationalism, used to build a broader base than just a narrow wealthy elite. “Let’s expand on current [models]( of peacebuilding [trust funds]( and create one for Ukrainian and Eastern European to not only support civil society capacity expansion, protection, and powerbuilding in the long-term, but also investing in addressing fragility and conflict before it turns into violence,” wrote Kizer. Durrie Bouscaren [reported]( on the Romanians taking in Ukrainian refugees. “One man from a nearby village, Ilut Gherghe, handed out warm hamburgers from a paper bag in his arms,” writes Bouscaren. Romania’s government has offered transport, schooling, and medical services, while the refugees are met by the new arrivals with food, toys, and support. The report, which is beautifully photographed, highlights the solidarity of the people with newly displaced friends, even as promised government aid isn’t always visible. Many refugees are passing through, en route to elsewhere in Europe, but for some invariably this will be where they wait out the war, and possibly longer. Halima Gikandi [observed]( the ongoing recovery in Ethiopia’s Amhara region. The war, which has stalled but not formally ended, disrupted the harvest season, leaving people dependent on aid shipments for grains that could not be farmed and gathered as normal. The trampled fields are but one scar in the area, as people learn to live with the aftermath of fighting visited upon them. Fighting wounded and killed civilians with stray bombs, and the possibility remains that armies will once again march forth into the region. Living in the wake of war is hard. Harder still, when it’s unclear that the war has fully passed. [FORWARD TO A FRIEND]( [ ] WELL PLAYED When it comes to American foreign policy, there’s a [time to reaper and a time to sow](. The interpretation of this [pictogramic Russian anti-war poster]( that I can print is “нет войне,” or “no war.” The meaning I can’t is also a fun [bit of wordplay](. Sometimes, it’s a terrible idea when the boys are [back in town](. Other times, it’s an [absolute banger](. Much as people decry war becoming like a video game, it still hasn’t come close to its [full carcinization]( as a skinner box that eats currency and makes number go bigger. Finally, if everything does go south in an atomic way during Women’s History Month, it’ll at least be [the end of Herstory as we know it.]( [FORWARD TO A FRIEND]( Follow The World: [fb]( [tw]( [ig]( [www]( [DONATE TO THE WORLD]( Follow Inkstick: [fb]( [tw]( [ig]( [www]( [DONATE TO INKSTICK]( Critical State is written by Sam Ratner with Inkstick Media. The World is a weekday public radio show and podcast on global issues, news and insights from PRX and GBH. With an online magazine and podcast featuring a diversity of expert voices, Inkstick Media is “foreign policy for the rest of us.” Critical State is made possible in part by the Carnegie Corporation of New York. [Preferences]( | [Web Version]( [Unsubscribe](