FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories this week

[FiveThirtyEight]( Popular in Politics Thursday, March, 14, 2024 [1. Trump is leading the polls, but there's plenty of time for Biden to catch up]( [Trump is leading the polls, but there's plenty of time for Biden to catch up]( If the 2024 general election were held tomorrow, President Joe Biden would probably lose to former President Donald Trump. That's because, by 538's averaging, Biden trails in every major swing state — not to mention in national polls, too. Things only get worse for him the closer you look: The incumbent president is currently [viewed more unfavorably]( than [his predecessor]( for instance, and polls show few voters are [giving Biden credit]( for an improving economy. They [trust Trump more]( to handle several issues Americans rate as the [most important to their vote]( including immigration, jobs/the economy and foreign policy. Voters are likelier to say conditions were better under the previous president and that [the current executive has made their lives worse](. [Read more]( [2. How Sinema's retirement changes the Arizona Senate race]( [How Sinema's retirement changes the Arizona Senate race]( Not with a bang but a whimper. [Read more]( [3. LGBTQ+ voters look a lot like swing voters]( [LGBTQ+ voters look a lot like swing voters]( There is a voting bloc in America that is a [growing share of the population]( is reliably [overrepresented in the electorate]( identifies mostly as centrist or moderate, and says in recent polls that the economy is its top concern. You might think this is a cohort that both parties would be trying to woo, but it’s actually one the GOP has actively antagonized: LGBTQ+ Americans. [Read more]( [4. Americans think democracy is in peril in the 2024 election]( [Americans think democracy is in peril in the 2024 election]( Americans are worried about their democracy to an unprecedented degree. Only 28 percent of adults said they were satisfied with the way democracy is working in the U.S. in [a December Gallup survey](. That's lower even than the 35 percent in a survey right after the Jan. 6 insurrection, which came amid former President Donald Trump's repeated and ongoing claims that the 2020 election was "stolen" from him. [In an AP-NORC]( poll from Nov. 30 to Dec. 4, 67 percent said the outcome of the 2024 election will be extremely or very important for the future of democracy in the country. It's a message both Trump and President Joe Biden are echoing as they gear up for a likely rematch in November. [Read more]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe](