FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories this week

[FiveThirtyEight]( Popular in Politics Thursday, May, 30, 2024 [1. Polling isn't broken, but pollsters still face Trump-era challenges]( [Polling isn't broken, but pollsters still face Trump-era challenges]( Every election presents different challenges to pollsters. In the past few years, such obstacles have included declining response rates to [phone polling]( and among [some Republican]( or [conservative respondents]( — a sampling issue — and [trouble identifying the likely electorate]( in the face of high turnout — a weighting issue. These difficulties helped contribute to [larger-than-average polling errors]( in the 2020 presidential election, four years after pollsters also had [a worse-than-typical year]( in 2016 ([although for primarily different reasons](. Despite enjoying [notably more accurate results]( in the 2018 and 2022 midterms, pollsters this year are once again contending with a common denominator of the 2016 and 2020 cycles: now-former President Donald Trump, who is this year's presumptive GOP presidential nominee. [Read more]( [2. How will Trump's hush money trial impact the 2024 election?]( [How will Trump's hush money trial impact the 2024 election?]( Welcome to 538's politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. [Read more]( [3. Senate Democrats are polling well. That could help Biden.]( [Senate Democrats are polling well. That could help Biden.]( As Democrats wring their hands over [their poor polling numbers in the presidential race]( there is one spot of good news for them: U.S. Senate races. Democratic candidates have led in most recent polls of key Senate races like [Arizona]( [Michigan]( [Nevada]( [Pennsylvania]( and [Wisconsin]( even as President Joe Biden trails former President Donald Trump in the very same polls. [Read more]( [4. Republicans are ramping up election fraud claims ahead of November]( [Republicans are ramping up election fraud claims ahead of November]( Forget election season; election denial season has officially kicked off. [Read more]( [5. Will RFK Jr. qualify for the June presidential debate?]( [Will RFK Jr. qualify for the June presidential debate?]( The 2024 election is already positioned to make history — Donald Trump is a convention away from becoming the [first former president since 1892]( to win a party’s nomination after leaving office, while his contest against President Joe Biden is the [first presidential rematch since 1956](. And now the debates, too, have broken with the past: Last week, CNN announced that Biden and Trump [had agreed to meet on June 27]( which, should it happen, [would mark the earliest-ever general election debate]( in a presidential race. CNN’s event and a Sept. 10 debate [announced by ABC News]( also circumvent the Commission on Presidential Debates, which [has managed the process]( since 1988. This was something of a rare bipartisan move: The Republican National Committee [had quit the CPD in 2022]( Biden’s team wanted [no audience]( and [both campaigns desired an earlier debate]( than the [CPD’s 2024 proposal called for](. [Read more]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe](