FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories this week

[FiveThirtyEight]( Popular in Politics Thursday, May, 23, 2024 [1. Will RFK Jr. qualify for the June presidential debate?]( [Will RFK Jr. qualify for the June presidential debate?]( The 2024 election is already positioned to make history — Donald Trump is a convention away from becoming the [first former president since 1892]( to win a party’s nomination after leaving office, while his contest against President Joe Biden is the [first presidential rematch since 1956](. And now the debates, too, have broken with the past: Last week, CNN announced that Biden and Trump [had agreed to meet on June 27]( which, should it happen, [would mark the earliest-ever general election debate]( in a presidential race. CNN’s event and a Sept. 10 debate [announced by ABC News]( also circumvent the Commission on Presidential Debates, which [has managed the process]( since 1988. This was something of a rare bipartisan move: The Republican National Committee [had quit the CPD in 2022]( Biden’s team wanted [no audience]( and [both campaigns desired an earlier debate]( than the [CPD’s 2024 proposal called for](. [Read more]( [2. Many Haley voters won't back Trump. They weren't going to anyway.]( [Many Haley voters won't back Trump. They weren't going to anyway.]( UPDATE (May 23, 2024, 11:04 a.m. Eastern): On Wednesday, May 22, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley [offered her tacit endorsement]( of former President Donald Trump in the 2024 general election, saying that she “will be voting for Trump” against President Joe Biden. As discussed below, however, most of her Republican supporters were likely to vote for Trump anyway. [Read more]( [3. Don’t write off Lauren Boebert just yet]( [Don’t write off Lauren Boebert just yet]( A thin trickle of sweat slid from Beto O'Rourke's temple down his cheek. It was a warm, sunny afternoon in 2019 in Aurora, Colorado, and the then-presidential candidate stood on the steps of city hall [talking to voters about gun control](. As the crowd shared stories and fears about the state of gun culture in the U.S., O'Rourke pledged to pursue aggressive gun control measures. Then a petite woman in the front row was handed the mic. [Read more]( [4. Biden’s path to winning the Electoral College runs through the Midwest]( [Biden’s path to winning the Electoral College runs through the Midwest]( With 174 days — fewer than six months — left until Election Day, we're now within the window where general-election polling has [some predictive value]( — although it is still subject to plenty of change. And according to [538's newly released polling averages]( former President Donald Trump narrowly leads President Joe Biden, 41.2 percent to 40.5 percent, in [national polls]( (as of Wednesday at 1:30 p.m. Eastern). [Read more]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe](