FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular In Politics] Thursday, August 3, 2023 [1. Which Republican Will Drop Out Of The 2024 Primary First?]( [SlackChat_7_25_23_v01_DG]( Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. [Read more]( [2. Six Republican Candidates Appear To Have Qualified For The August Debate]( [University Of Colorado Prepares To Host Third GOP Presidental Primary Debate]( And they’re off! Six Republican presidential candidates appear to have qualified for their party’s first primary debate on Aug. 23, thanks to a pair of polls from Beacon Research/Shaw & Company/Fox Business released on Sunday that measured the preferences of likely GOP voters in Iowa and South Carolina. Based on FiveThirtyEight’s analysis, the two surveys increased the number of total polls that can, according to the Republican National Committee’s guidelines, qualify a candidate for the stage to five. [Read more]( [3. A Growing Share Of Americans Think States Shouldn’t Be Able To Put Any Limits On Abortion]( [abortion-thumb-4×3]( The Supreme Court’s 2022 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization transformed the politics of abortion, turning an issue that once mattered mostly to conservative Christians into a powerful voting issue on the left. But new polling suggests that the decision could also be reshaping the way abortion-rights supporters think about the issue — specifically, whether abortion is something that should be regulated by the government at all. [Read more]( [4. What’s Going On With House Retirements This Cycle?]( [House Judiciary Committee Hears Testimony From Special Counsel John Durham]( With a presidential election on the docket in 2024, much of the political spotlight right now is shining on the race for the White House. But all over the country, there will also be a bevy of critical down-ballot contests, including all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Republicans took control of the chamber in the 2022 midterms, but hold only a 222-to-213 edge over the Democrats, meaning that Democrats would only need to flip five Republican-held seats to recapture the House. [Read more]( [5. 16 States Made It Harder To Vote This Year. But 26 Made It Easier.]( [A demonstrator sits beside a sign that reads "Don't Mess With Texas Voters"]( Two years ago, the biggest battles in state legislatures were over voting rights. Democrats loudly — and sometimes literally — protested as Republicans passed new voting restrictions in states like Georgia, Florida and Texas. This year, attention has shifted to other hot-button issues, but the fight over the franchise has continued. Republicans have enacted dozens of laws this year that will make it harder for some people to vote in future elections. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Emergency Podcast: Trump Charged In Jan. 6 Investigation]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.