Morning Distribution for Friday, July 28, 2023

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Morning Distribution]( Friday, July 28, 2023 Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight --------------------------------------------------------------- The Morning Story [House Judiciary Committee Hears Testimony From Special Counsel John Durham]( [What’s Going On With House Retirements This Cycle?]( By [Geoffrey Skelley]( With a presidential election on the docket in 2024, much of the political spotlight right now is shining on the race for the White House. But all over the country, there will also be a bevy of critical down-ballot contests, including all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Republicans took control of the chamber in the 2022 midterms, but hold only a 222-to-213 edge over the Democrats, meaning that Democrats would only need to flip five Republican-held seats to recapture the House. Given how thin the margin is, we’re closely watching which House seats might become open due to the officeholder’s retirement or decision to seek another office. Despite a [weaker incumbency advantage in recent elections]( parties still [tend to be more vulnerable]( to losing control of competitive seats if they aren’t fielding incumbents to defend them. Additionally, a disproportionate number of retirements by one party — especially “pure retirements,” when politicians decide to leave office without seeking another one — can sometimes [signal a belief]( among that party’s officeholders that the coming election will go poorly for them. If you’ve made it this far in the hopes of seeing which way the political winds are blowing, well, sorry. So far this cycle, House departures haven’t revealed much of anything about how things might go next November. Just two representatives have announced they won’t run for reelection or another office — one from each party — while 10 House members are [running for the Senate]( instead of seeking reelection. With 12 overall exits as we reach the end of July, the 2024 cycle ranks in the lower half of election cycles over the past two decades when it comes to the number of announced House departures at this point in time. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: Who’d Win A Trump-less GOP Primary?]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.