FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, July 9, 2023 [1. The Supreme Court Had A Few Surprises This Year. That Doesn’t Make It Moderate.]( [538_4x3_SupremeCourtWrapUp_v01_ks]( The second full term under the most conservative Supreme Court in modern history concluded last week, with major rulings on affirmative action, President Biden’s student debt forgiveness program and anti-discrimination law. [Read more]( [2. Extremist-Related Mass Killings Have Been On The Rise]( [ExtremistShootings_v03_DG]( Just days after a gunman opened fire in a suburban outlet mall in Texas in May, killing eight people, his far-right extremist views became apparent. His online posts and profile, the symbols on the clothing he wore and even his tattoos revealed white-supremacist, neo-Nazi and misogynistic incel ties. While these views are shocking, the fact that the shooting was committed by someone who held them was not. Data on mass killings in the U.S. shows a growing share of violent attacks, as well as attempted or planned attacks, have ties to extremism. [Read more]( [3. Why Biden Probably Won’t Get A Serious Primary Challenger]( [US President Joe Biden]( It’s July in the year before a presidential election, and a first-term president is running for reelection. Most of the time, nothing about this situation would merit more than a passing acknowledgment: The incumbent would face little intraparty opposition, and the media would be almost entirely focused on the other party’s presidential primary. [Read more]( [4. What Happened In This Year’s Supreme Court Term?]( [SlackChat-AmeliaThomsonDeVeaux-JohnRobertsCushyGig-4×3-v01-ks]( Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. [Read more]( [5. The Supreme Court Killed Biden’s Student Loan Forgiveness Plan. What Does That Mean For 2024?]( [Biggest Cases Loom As Supreme Court Hits Homestretch]( On Friday, the last day of this year’s term, the Supreme Court struck down President Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan. The court concluded in a 6-to-3 ruling that the president overstepped his executive authority by making such a large-scale change to the program via a waiver, as laid out in a 2003 law. Chief Justice John Roberts was joined by the five other Republican appointees to the court. “The [2003 law] provides no authorization for the Secretary’s plan even when examined using the ordinary tools of statutory interpretation — let alone ‘clear congressional authorization’ for such a program,” Roberts wrote. [Read more]( [6. No Labels Is Chasing A Fantasy]( [NoLabelsBidMainImage_4x3_v01_DG]( There’s not a lot of love for the two-party system. Over the past decade, a majority of Americans have repeatedly told Gallup that the Republican and Democratic parties do such a poor job representing the American people that the country needs a third party. [Read more]( [7. Most Americans Wanted The Supreme Court To End Affirmative Action — Kind Of]( [The US Supreme Court building]( In a ruling on two related cases on Thursday written by Chief Justice John Roberts, the Supreme Court just ended affirmative action in higher education as we know it. [Read more]( [8. Nonreligious Americans Are The New Abortion Voters]( [US-politics-abortion-RALLY]( When Roe v. Wade was overturned last year, many white evangelical Protestants didn’t just see the Supreme Court’s ruling as a political win — it was a spiritual victory. For decades, religious conservatives have been singularly focused on ending the constitutional right to abortion, a priority that few other demographic groups shared. White evangelical Protestants — a group that has, since the 1980s, voted overwhelmingly for Republicans — were much more likely than other religious groups to say that abortion was a high priority. [Read more]( [9. Introducing Our Brand-New Polling Averages]( [538_Main_PollAverage_v02_agArtboard-USE]( As you may have heard, there have been some changes at FiveThirtyEight recently. While it will be strange around here without our founder Nate Silver, his models and his oddly strong opinions about states, there are also some things that aren’t going away: namely, our commitment to rigorous data journalism and our mountains of polling data and trackers. [Read more]( [10. What The Supreme Court’s New Ruling Does — And Doesn’t — Mean For 2024]( [The Supreme Court has ruled that state legislatures do not have unilateral authority over election law, but left the door open for future challenges against state court overreach.]( For the second time this month, the Supreme Court has preserved the legal status quo on election law — causing liberals to breathe a huge sigh of relief. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: How The Supreme Court Will Shape The 2024 Election]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.