Morning Distribution for Tuesday, May 9, 2023

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Morning Distribution]( Tuesday, May 9, 2023 Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight --------------------------------------------------------------- The Morning Story [TxSenate_v02_DG]( [Does Colin Allred Have What It Takes To Beat Ted Cruz?]( By [Nathaniel Rakich]( Is Rep. Colin Allred the next Beto O’Rourke? Last week, Allred [announced he was running for U.S. Senate]( in Texas against Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, the [conservative firebrand]( whom liberals [love to hate](. Democrats are hoping that Allred can finish what O’Rourke started in 2018, when he electrified the Democratic grassroots and came within 3 percentage points of [unseating Cruz](. But it won’t be easy: Texas is still a Republican-leaning state that will probably require a candidate even stronger than O’Rourke for Democrats to win, and it’s not clear that Allred is that candidate. If Democrats want to pick up any Senate seats in 2024, they might have to beat Cruz. The Senate battleground next year is [extremely favorable to Republicans](. There are no Republican-held Senate seats on the ballot in states that President Biden carried in 2020, meaning that Democrats will have to compete in enemy territory if they want to defend against possible losses in [states like West Virginia or Montana](. And of the 11 Republican-held Senate seats up for election, only Florida and Texas are even remotely vulnerable. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: Does It Matter If King Charles Is Popular?]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.