FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories this week

[FiveThirtyEight]( Popular in Politics Thursday, May, 16, 2024 [1. Biden’s path to winning the Electoral College runs through the Midwest]( [Biden’s path to winning the Electoral College runs through the Midwest]( With 174 days — fewer than six months — left until Election Day, we're now within the window where general-election polling has [some predictive value]( — although it is still subject to plenty of change. And according to [538's newly released polling averages]( former President Donald Trump narrowly leads President Joe Biden, 41.2 percent to 40.5 percent, in [national polls]( (as of Wednesday at 1:30 p.m. Eastern). [Read more]( [2. See how demographic swings could impact the 2024 election]( [See how demographic swings could impact the 2024 election]( Early polling and special election results have [raised many questions]( about how the electorate might vote come November. Will younger voters [swing sharply to the right]( Might President Joe Biden [gain more ground]( among white college-educated voters? Has former President Donald Trump [made significant inroads with voters of color]( Could turnout plummet [because of unhappiness]( with a Biden-Trump rematch? Any of these developments could potentially change who wins the election. [Read more]( [3. Why Noem blaming shooting her dog on the realities of rural life doesn’t add up]( [Why Noem blaming shooting her dog on the realities of rural life doesn’t add up]( For most of my life, I've owned an endless parade of dogs and cats. At various times, I've had aquariums full of fish, two rabbits, a guinea pig, and at least a dozen hamsters. For about a decade, my family had a rescue cockatiel named Alfred. I grew up in rural Arkansas, and between extended family, friends and neighbors, I encountered many more critters: horses, cows, pigs, pet goats, chickens kept for eggs, a donkey who brayed too long into the night and two ostriches who regularly escaped their corral. [Read more]( [4. Don’t write off Lauren Boebert just yet]( [Don’t write off Lauren Boebert just yet]( A thin trickle of sweat slid from Beto O'Rourke's temple down his cheek. It was a warm, sunny afternoon in 2019 in Aurora, Colorado, and the then-presidential candidate stood on the steps of city hall [talking to voters about gun control](. As the crowd shared stories and fears about the state of gun culture in the U.S., O'Rourke pledged to pursue aggressive gun control measures. Then a petite woman in the front row was handed the mic. [Read more]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe](