FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, November 20, 2022 [1. How A Data Processing Error Changed Our Deluxe Forecast]( Soon after the midterm elections, we began our regular process of evaluating how FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts performed. We quickly discovered an error: We were using out-of-date data for one important source used in the Deluxe version of our forecast. Although this had little impact on the topline numbers for each party’s chance of controlling a chamber of Congress, it had modest-to-medium-sized effects on some individual races in the Deluxe forecast. It had no effect on the Lite or Classic forecasts. [Read more]( [2. So You Think You Can Explain The Election]( [EXPLAIN-ELEX-4×3]( The election is over. The results are (mostly) in. Time to decide what it all means.​ That’s a particularly popular activity in a year when Democrats pulled off something of an upset — their successes going against historical expectations and the popular narrative that suggested Republicans were set to sweep the House and Senate in the midterms. [Read more]( [3. The New Jersey Devils Are Scorching The NHL Again]( [Ottawa Senators v New Jersey Devils]( As the wise philosopher David Puddy once said: “Don’t mess with the Devils, buddy. We’re number one, we beat anybody!” [Read more]( [4. Election Denialism Lives On, Even As Candidates Who Support It Concede]( [1118_POLLA-4×3]( Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. [Read more]( [5. Kyrie Irving’s Stats Aren’t Worth The Drama]( [Indiana Pacers v Brooklyn Nets]( Throughout Kyrie Irving’s many basketball hiatuses over the years — whether due to injuries, refusal to take the COVID-19 vaccine or, most recently, suspension for promoting an anti-Semitic documentary — the mercurial star’s on-court brilliance has rarely been questioned. Contemporaries have often called him the most skilled player in the history of the NBA, with some going as far to say he ranks among the league’s 75 best players ever. And watching Irving certainly leaves you dazzled: You’d be hard-pressed to find a more maddening cover on defense, equipped with an arsenal of how-did-he-think-of-that moves and the slipperiness to evade even the rangiest and most committed of stoppers. [Read more]( [6. Why Lauren Boebert Didn’t Cruise To Victory]( [Congresswoman Lauren Boebert]( UPDATE (Nov. 18, 2022, 4:21 p.m.): On Friday, Adam Frisch conceded the race in Colorado’s 3rd District to Rep. Lauren Boebert. Though she leads by just 0.16 percentage points — which means the race is set to go to an automatic recount — Frisch’s concession indicates that Boebert is likely to just hold on in this reliably red district. [Read more]( [7. The Midterms Made State Governments Bluer]( [Former U.S. President Obama attends a rally with Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer]( Abortion bans, right-to-work laws, voting restrictions — for years, a lot of the major legislation coming out of state capitols has been conservative. But after Democrats’ clear victory in state-level elections last week, landmark liberal policies could be coming to a state near you.  [Read more]( [8. Abortion Was Always Going To Impact The Midterms]( [Women’s Wave March 2022]( Abortion turned out to be a driving force in midterm races across the country, helping Democrats maintain control of the Senate and limit their losses in the House. But if you were following news coverage in the lead-up to the election, the impact of abortion may have come as quite a surprise. In the month before the election, multiple major media outlets reported that voters’ outrage over the Supreme Court’s June decision overruling Roe v. Wade was fading. Inflation, not abortion, seemed to be rising in importance, making Democrats’ focus on abortion look like a risky gamble. “The debate over abortion rights has not emerged as a political silver bullet for Democrats,” reporters for The New York Times wrote on Nov. 4. [Read more]( [9. The Bengals Are Following Last Year’s Script. But Will Their Turnaround Be The Same?]( [Carolina Panthers v Cincinnati Bengals]( Following a season in which the Cincinnati Bengals made a magical playoff run to the franchise’s first Super Bowl appearance since 1988, the team didn’t get off to the fast start many experts anticipated in 2022. The Bengals dropped their first two games and have struggled to get above .500 for most of the year so far. But after its worst loss of the season, a 32-13 road defeat to the Cleveland Browns in Week 8, Cincinnati got a bounce-back win over the rebuilding Carolina Panthers to go into its bye week with a 5-4 record. [Read more]( [10. Republicans Won The House — Barely]( [2022-REAX-HOUSE-4×3]( As expected, Republicans have taken control of the U.S. House of Representatives, ending two years of Democratic rule in Washington, D.C. But what wasn’t expected was how narrow the Republicans’ majority would be. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Emergency Podcast: Will Trump Win The GOP Nomination?]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.