FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, January 9, 2022 [1. The Ben Simmons-Less Sixers Are Still A Work In Progress]( [Joel Embiid, Georges Niang, Tobias Harris, Matisse Thybulle, and Seth Curry of the Philadelphia 76ers celebrate defeating the Toronto Raptors]( As the NBA’s March 25 trade deadline approaches, the rumor mill churns ever faster around the Philadelphia 76ers and erstwhile star Ben Simmons. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski and Zach Lowe reported last month that trade talks involving Simmons were “gathering momentum,” while Sam Amick of The Athletic wrote this week that Philadelphia was still actively looking for a huge haul in return for Simmons (to the frustration of prospective trade partners). Michele Roberts, the outgoing executive director of the players association, weighed in Wednesday: “I think what’s happening in Philadelphia frankly is ridiculous, and I don’t know why we’re playing chicken with each other,” she said. “It just strikes [me] that this is something that could be worked out.” [Read more]( [2. The Buffalo Bills Got The Least Bang For Their Schedule’s Buck This Season]( [Carolina Panthers v Buffalo Bills]( Perhaps the easiest way to start a fight with NFL fans is to assert that their favorite franchise hasn’t beaten anyone. In one fell swoop you’ve devalued a season’s worth of victories and also cast substantial doubt on the team’s postseason prospects. Accusations of a cupcake schedule make for sensitive discourse because a handful of teams each year actually do get lucky and face a slate of pushovers. And the idea of winning with a soft schedule is a kind of fraudulent, stolen glory that is almost too terrible for fans to contemplate. But if there are charlatan teams out there, how can we best identify them? [Read more]( [3. Why Republicans Take Jan. 6 Less Seriously Than Other Americans]( [A photo illustration of the US Capitol building during the January 6th insurrection against a gridded background]( Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. [Read more]( [4. Biden’s Vaccine Mandates Could Be In Trouble At The Supreme Court]( [A photo illustration of the Supreme Court building with coronavirus vaccine bottles replacing the columns.]( This has not been a quiet term for the Supreme Court, to put it mildly. But shortly before Christmas, the justices added yet another set of high-profile cases to their docket: two cases that deal with the legality of President Biden’s COVID-19 vaccine mandates. Oral arguments in the cases, which involve a vaccination requirement for some health care workers and a vaccine-or-testing requirement for large employers, will take place on Friday. [Read more]( [5. Michigan’s Naz Hillmon Plays Bigger Than Her Size]( [Ohio State v Michigan]( In the latter stages of the first half of a matchup between Michigan and Baylor last month, Wolverines guard Leigha Brown fed the ball inside to Naz Hillmon. [Read more]( [6. Why More Republicans Aren’t Outraged By Jan. 6]( [J6-REP-REAX-4×3]( For more coverage of the Jan. 6 attack, read our collection of essays and reflections examining where we are as a country one year later, including what has — and hasn’t — changed since a violent mob of Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol. [Read more]( [7. We’re Misunderstanding What Caused Jan. 6]( [J6-CAUSE-4×3]( For more coverage of the Jan. 6 attack, read our collection of essays and reflections examining where we are as a country one year later, including what has — and hasn’t — changed since a violent mob of Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol. [Read more]( [8. How Jan. 6 Enabled Greater Interference In Our Elections]( [J6-ELECT-INTERFERENCE-4×3]( For more coverage of the Jan. 6 attack, read our collection of essays and reflections examining where we are as a country one year later, including what has — and hasn’t — changed since a violent mob of Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol. [Read more]( [9. Why Many Americans Might Be Increasingly Accepting Of Political Violence]( [J6-POLIT-VIOLENCE-4×3]( For more coverage of the Jan. 6 attack, read our collection of essays and reflections examining where we are as a country one year later, including what has — and hasn’t — changed since a violent mob of Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol. [Read more]( [10. How Omicron Has Reshaped Sports]( [San Antonio Spurs guard Joshua Primo stands on the court in front of a crowd-less Toronto Raptors arena]( Just when the sports world was putting the finishing touches on a year of greater normalcy than 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic struck back with a vengeance. Since Dec. 13 alone, the NHL has postponed 93 games (and counting) over the virus, while the NBA postponed 11 games and the NFL rescheduled three games. Five college football bowls were canceled, and numerous college basketball games were shelved as well. In just a matter of weeks, the hyper-transmissible omicron variant has completely upended the protocols that sports leagues had been using to navigate their way through the pandemic. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: Why Jan. 6 Was Not A Turning Point]( Lastly, The Riddler By [Zach Wissner-Gross]( [riddler_4x3_default]( From Leonard Cohen comes a timely matter of touchdowns: In the Riddler Football League, you are coaching the Arizona Ordinals against your opponent, the Detroit Lines, and your team is down by 14 points. You can assume that you have exactly two remaining possessions (i.e., opportunities to score), and that Detroit will score no more points. For those unfamiliar with American football, a touchdown is worth 6 points. After each touchdown, you can decide whether to go for 1 extra point or 2 extra points. You happen to have a great kicker on your team, and your chances of scoring 1 extra point (should you go for it) are 100 percent. Meanwhile, scoring 2 extra points is no sure thing — suppose that your team’s probability of success is some value p. If the teams are tied at the end of regulation, the game proceeds to overtime, which you have a 50 percent chance of winning. (Assuming [ties]( are not allowed.) What is the minimum value of p such that you’d go for 2 extra points after your team’s first touchdown (i.e., when you’re down 8 points)? [Solve it!]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.