FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, November 28, 2021 [1. Neither Grandmaster Yields In A Chess Tug Of War]( [2021-CHESS-CHAMPS-1128-4×3]( A game, the philosopher Bernard Suits wrote, is “the voluntary attempt to overcome unnecessary obstacles.” It’s one thing to shove a fistful of chess pieces across the board to surround the enemy king. It’s quite another to get them there in accordance with the ancient game’s intricate rules, and while your grandmaster opponent tries to do the same. [Read more]( [2. A Chess Player Almost Won A Chess Game]( [2021-CHESS-CHAMPS-1127-4×3]( The auditorium in Dubai hosting the 2021 World Chess Championship is reminiscent of the American Museum of Natural History in New York City. Each features a grand, darkened room with a glowing diorama, filled with motionless drama. And in both, a squid and a whale remain deadlocked in their boxes, caught in the middle of a grueling battle. [Read more]( [3. The World Chess Championship Opens With An Endless Knight-Rook Dance]( [2021-CHESS-CHAMPS-1126-4×3]( With a tense draw lasting four hours and 45 moves, Magnus Carlsen on Friday began the latest defense of his World Chess Championship title. The Norwegian grandmaster has been No. 1 in the world for a decade and has held the sport’s top title since 2013. His challenger, Russian grandmaster and world No. 5 Ian Nepomniachtchi, won the right to challenge for the title by winning the elite Candidates Tournament in April. [Read more]( [4. Our Very Unscientific Poll On When Each Season Starts]( [SEASONS-4×3]( While the emotional toll of the pandemic may have completely wrecked our perception of time, periodic glances out our windows plus our knowledge of orbital dynamics confirm that Earth is continuing its annual revolution around our closest star. So even if we lose track of days or weeks, we can at least observe nature’s cycles and find comfort in the changing seasons together. [Read more]( [5. We Knew The Bulls Could Score. Now Their Defense Has Our Attention.]( [Anthony Davis of the Los Angeles Lakers is guarded by multiple Chicago Bulls players]( From the outside looking in, many of the Chicago Bulls’ recent personnel decisions have seemed to prioritize the offensive side of the ball at the cost of the defense. [Read more]( [6. Tua Tagovailoa Is Playing Well, Which Is A Real Inconvenience If You’re The Dolphins]( [Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins]( After taking quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with the fifth overall pick in last year’s draft, the Miami Dolphins appeared to have given up on the Alabama star this season. They signed capable spot starter Jacoby Brissett in the offseason, then seemed to bench Tagovailoa for Brissett going into Week 10. But the kicker was the extensive trade talks the Dolphins have reportedly held with the Houston Texans about quarterback Deshaun Watson. In fact, if Watson had settled some of his lawsuits prior to the trade deadline — he currently faces more than 20 lawsuits alleging sexual misconduct — he might already be the Dolphins’ starter. [Read more]( [7. The Seattle Kraken Haven’t Found Vegas’s Expansion-Year Magic … Yet]( [Colorado Avalanche v Seattle Kraken]( When we launched our NHL prediction model going into this season, one of the big questions we had to answer was what to do with the expansion Seattle Kraken. While the history of expansion teams is generally ugly, littered with some of the worst performances in professional league histories, that appeared to change forever (in the NHL at least) with the Vegas Golden Knights in 2017-18. Not only was Vegas better than the typical expansion team, it was the best expansion team in any major pro sport ever — which in turn totally reset the expectations for any and all future first-year clubs. [Read more]( [8. Kyle Rittenhouse Bridged The Divide Between The Far Right And Mainstream Conservatives]( [Kyle Rittenhouse]( Kyle Rittenhouse’s trial may have ended, but his veneration is only beginning. [Read more]( [9. College Football Teams Are Traveling Farther Than Ever For Road Games]( [Hawaii's Chevan Cordeiro runs with the ball]( Shortly after the shellshock announcement that Texas and Oklahoma would leave the Big 12 for the SEC, the scorned conference reloaded with the planned addition of four teams that span nearly the full breadth of the country. The farthest-flung, Brigham Young and Central Florida, are 1,900 miles apart — 2,300 miles by car, for one of the longest conference road trips imaginable. But the new-look Big 12 will fit right in within the college football landscape: Every Power Five conference except the SEC already has member schools in excess of 1,000 miles apart. [Read more]( [10. Where Have All The Good NFL Teams Gone?]( [SportsChat-1122-4×3]( sara.ziegler (Sara Ziegler, sports editor): Another week in the NFL, another upset by a double-digit underdog. Welcome to the club, Houston! [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: What The Two Parties Should Be Thankful For]( Lastly, The Riddler By [Zach Wissner-Gross]( [riddler_4x3_default]( From Keith Wynrow comes a clever little puzzle that stumped a few folks on social media: On the Food Network’s latest game show, Cranberries or Bust, you have a choice between two doors: A and B. One door has a lifetime supply of cranberry sauce behind it, while the other door has absolutely nothing behind it. And boy, do you love cranberry sauce. Of course, there’s a twist. The host presents you with a coin with two sides, marked A and B, which correspond to each door. The host tells you that the coin is weighted in favor of the cranberry door — without telling you which door that is — and that door’s letter will turn up 60 percent of the time. For example, if the sauce is behind door A, then the coin will turn up A 60 percent of the time and B the remaining 40 percent of the time. You can flip the coin twice, after which you must make your selection. Assuming you optimize your strategy, what are your chances of choosing the door with the cranberry sauce? Extra credit: Instead of two flips, what if you are allowed three or four flips? Now what are your chances of choosing the door with the cranberry sauce? [Solve it!]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.