FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, October 4, 2020 [1. What Went Down During The First Presidential Debate]( [2020-PresDebate_1-4×3-NO-LIVE]( [Read more]( [2. Trump’s Chances Are Dwindling. That Could Make Him Dangerous.]( [EU-0930-4×3]( President Trump’s quest to win a second term is not in good shape. He entered Tuesday night’s debate with roughly a 7- or 8-point deficit in national polls, putting him further behind at this stage of the race than any other candidate since Bob Dole in 1996. [Read more]( [3. How Will Trump’s Positive COVID-19 Test Affect The Election?]( [SlackChat_1002-4×3]( Welcome to an emergency edition of FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited, and updated with the news that Joe Biden has tested negative for the coronavirus. [Read more]( [4. What Happens If A Presidential Nominee Can No Longer Run For Office?]( [Charlotte Prepares For Democratic National Convention]( UPDATE (Oct. 2, 2020, 10:34 a.m.): Early Friday, President Trump tweeted that he and First Lady Melania Trump had tested positive for COVID-19. That news came on the heel of reports that White House senior advisor Hope Hicks had tested positive on Thursday. Earlier this year, we asked the question: What happens if a president (or presidential nominee) can no longer run for office? [Read more]( [5. Will Such A Cacophonous Debate Change Any Minds?]( [SlackChat_0930-4×3]( Welcome to a special, post-debate edition of FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. [Read more]( [6. Trump Is An Underdog, But The Electoral College’s Republican Tilt Improves His Chances]( [US President Donald Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania]( Even if you’re not following the polls super closely like those of us at FiveThirtyEight, you probably know that Joe Biden has both a sizable and fairly stable lead over President Trump. [Read more]( [7. How Trump’s Tax Returns Could Affect The Election]( [President Trump Holds Rally In Support Of U.S. Senate Candidate Patrick Morrisey]( On Sunday, a New York Times exposé on President Trump’s tax returns revealed decades of tax avoidance and millions of dollars in business losses over the past two decades. The picture painted by Trump’s returns is sharply at odds with the shrewd, deal-making image the president has tried to fashion as a real estate mogul and TV star on a show built around his business prowess, “The Apprentice.” Now, five weeks from Election Day, the question is will these new revelations affect the presidential race? [Read more]( [8. Trump Has An Elevated Risk Of Severe COVID-19. But It Helps To Be The President.]( [COVID-OUTCOMES_4x3]( President Trump has COVID-19. In some ways, that seems inevitable — the campaign trail is a high-contact sport, and the president was cavalier about public health guidelines. But what comes next is anything but certain. And it depends on who the president is, not just what he does. [Read more]( [9. Will The First Presidential Debate Shake Up The Race?]( [SlackChat_0929-4×3]( Welcome to a special edition of FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. [Read more]( [10. Why Four Pivotal Swing States Likely Won’t Be Called On Election Night]( [RECEIPT-DEADLINES-4×3]( The 2020 election is already underway in several states, but that doesn’t mean the rules aren’t still changing. (We’re tracking them all here.) In the past eight days alone, four important swing states have tentatively extended the deadline by which mail ballots must be received. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: Trump Interrupts To Point Of Chaos In First Debate]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.