Alek Manoah's Steamer Projection Is a Feature, Not a Bug

The FanGraphs Newsletter, December 2, 2022 [READ IN BROWSER]( December 2, 2022 Hi there! For the most part, projection systems fall in line with public perceptions of players. [Yordan Alvarez]( is going to be very good next season, but [Raimel Tapia]( won’t be. [Shohei Ohtani]( is the eighth wonder of the world, and so on. But once in a while, they produce a head-scratcher that becomes the subject of debate. This leads to a lot of takes, some of them good but many of them bad. The worst are variations of “Projection X thinks poorly of Player Y, whom I like, and therefore it must be illegitimate.” They’re sometimes funny to read, though they’re mostly annoying because they stem from a fundamental misunderstanding of what projection systems are trying to achieve. Let’s cut to the chase. The reason Justin is writing about this is because [Steamer]( projects [Alek Manoah]( who placed third in Cy Young voting and served as the Blue Jays’ ace, to put up a 4.09 ERA next season. That seems outlandish, even with the knowledge that projection systems are conservative by design. Manoah isn’t just a one-season wonder. His excellence extends back to his rookie campaign in 2021, and his sophomore effort seemed like a natural progression. The narrative is there: A great starter blossoms into a phenomenal one. Asserting that Manoah will go from an ERA in the low 2.00s to one in the low 4.00s is more or less a rebuke of it. [Alek Manoah's Steamer Projection Is a Feature, Not a Bug,]( [by Justin Choi]( [Tampa Bay Signs This Eflin Guy]( Eflin is a solid mid-rotation starter, and the Rays locked him up for a reasonable rate and a reasonable amount of time. And maybe, with a few tweaks and better defense behind him, he could become something more. | by Michael Baumann [40-Man Deadline Analysis: AL West]( Checking in on the prospect comings and goings for the Angles, Astros, A's, Mariners and Rangers. | by Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin [JAWS and the 2023 Hall of Fame Ballot: Billy Wagner]( The undersized, hard-throwing lefty crossed the 50% threshold last year and has a real shot at eventual election. | by Jay Jaffe [Who Got Lucky in the Outfield?]( Does the makeup of an outfielder's chances affect how they're graded by defensive metrics? | by Davy Andrews [Nelson Cruz Has 13th-Percentile Sprint Speed. Can He Outrun Time?]( It's not every winter a 42-year-old draws significant interest on the free-agent market. Can Cruz bounce back from a disappointing 2022, or has age finally caught up with him? | by Michael Baumann [Meatballs, With a Chance of Clouting]( Leave a poor pitch over the middle of the plate, and you'll pay for it - probably, at least. | by Ben Clemens 🎧 [EFFECTIVELY WILD EPISODE 1937: Never More Than 12]( [DOWNLOAD THE FANGRAPHS APP]( [FanGraphs & Effectively Wild Merch Is Now Available at BreakingT!]( [ORDER HERE]( [Playing by Aaron Judge's rules? For once, a player has real power over the Yankees]( by Buster Olney, ESPN [The best pitches on the free-agent market]( by David Adler, MLB [Offense in 2022 was the Worst in Nearly 50 Years]( by Rob Mains, Baseball Prospectus ($) [2022 Major League Baseball Rule 5 Draft Preview Version 4.0]( by Geoff Pontes and J.J. Cooper, Baseball America ($) [@fangraphs]( [FanGraphs]( [FanGraphs]( [RSS]( [FORWARD]( [SUBSCRIBE]( Copyright © 2022 FanGraphs Inc, All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you subscribed to the FanGraphs Newsletter. Our mailing address is: FanGraphs Inc 1200 N Hartford St. Apt 312Arlington, Va 22201 [Add us to your address book]( Want to change how you receive these emails? You can [update your preferences]( or [unsubscribe from this list](