Let's Sign Some Contracts, 2024 Edition

The FanGraphs Newsletter, April 30, 2024 [READ IN BROWSER]( April 30, 2024 Spending money can be a lot of fun, but spending someone else’s money is even better. And that’s exactly what we’re doing today! About a month into the season is typically when Dan Szymborski looks at some of the players who are prime extension candidates and the possible deals they might work out with their teams. As usual, the contracts presented are not necessarily what I would offer the players or what they will get, but what the mean, cold-hearted projections think would amount to a fair agreement. For each player, their ZiPS projections with the latest model updates are included. Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (Nine years, $192 million) It’s going to be a long time until Elly De La Cruz is eligible for free agency, but if the Reds wish to signal to the fans that the best players they develop will be in Cincinnati for longer than their middle arbitration years, ownership is going to have to make a real commitment to one of them at some point. And who is a better option than De La Cruz? We would have said Matt McLain a few months ago, but his major shoulder surgery makes it a risky time for both team and player to come to a meeting of the minds on a future dollar figure. De La Cruz still has issues making contact, but his plate discipline has continued to improve since his debut. He’s drawing a lot more walks this year and he’s actually been better than the average major leaguer at not chasing pitches. And with better plate discipline should come more power because a greater percentage of his swings will come against pitches that he can actually drive. As you can see above, he wouldn’t need to exceed his 50th percentile projections for home runs by much to secure a 40/40 season. In fact, after hitting his eighth home run of the year Monday night, De La Cruz is currently [on pace]( for 45 homers and an absurd 101 steals this season — and he still has a lot of polishing left to do. He’s also showing he’s far from a defensive liability at shortstop, even though a healthy McLain is still probably preferable there. This contract buys out some of De La Cruz’s early free agency years and gives him a big wad of guaranteed dough. [READ MORE]( [The Precarious Position of the Pending Free Agent]( After years spent toiling in the team-controlled desert, some players are wondering if the free agent promised land is all it's cracked up to be. | by Zach Buchanan [I’m Just MacKenzie. My K/9 Is Over 10.]( Is it my destiny to live and die by my fastball velocity? | by Micheal Baumann [Stock Rising: Four Players I'm Higher on After a Month of Play]( Two hitters and two pitchers who I am evaluating more favorably now than I was a month ago. | by Ben Clemens [Paul Goldschmidt and the Crowd Below Replacement Level]( The former MVP is one of a handful of stars who has struggled to get going in the season's first month. | by Jay Jaffe [FanGraphs Power Rankings: April 22–28]( A jumble of teams are still sitting around .500 and could wind up in the playoff picture with one hot streak. | by Jake Mailhot [Marco Gonzales Is Concerned With Changes in Baseball]( The veteran Pittsburgh Pirates southpaw opines on current topics of interest within the game. | by David Laurila 🎧 [Effectively Wild Episode 2157: Sophomore Lumps]( [DOWNLOAD THE FANGRAPHS APP]( [FanGraphs & Effectively Wild Merch Is Now Available at BreakingT!]( [ORDER HERE]( [Why the Astros think they've turned their season around]( by Alden Gonzalez, ESPN [Five MLB hitters with big jumps in barrel rate: Are breakout seasons ahead for them?]( by Eno Sarris, The Athletic ($) [Exploring Maximum and Average Pitch Velocity Separation]( by Michael Barker, Pitcher List [@fangraphs]( [FanGraphs]( [FanGraphs]( [RSS]( [FORWARD]( [SUBSCRIBE]( Copyright © 2024 FanGraphs Inc, All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you subscribed to the FanGraphs Newsletter. Our mailing address is: FanGraphs Inc 3017 N Underwood StArlington, VA 22213 [Add us to your address book]( Want to change how you receive these emails? You can [update your preferences]( or [unsubscribe from this list](