The ZiPS Two-Month Standings Update

The FanGraphs Newsletter, May 31, 2024 [READ IN BROWSER]( May 31, 2024 It may still feel like the 2024 season just got started, but Major League Baseball passed the one-third mark this past week. This is usually a good time for a full, fresh run of the ZiPS projected standings, and we think especially so now after Ronald Acuña Jr.’s season-ending injury, which will have a serious impact on the NL East race. The ZiPS projected standings use a different methodology than our Depth Chart standings, beyond only using ZiPS rather than a ZiPS/Steamer mix. Stored within ZiPS are the first- through 99th-percentile projections for each player. Dan start by making a generalized depth chart, using our Depth Charts as a jumping off point. He then made his own changes, and the final results are correlated with, but far from identical, to Jason Martinez’s projected PAs and IPs. The one change in methodology from past standings is that the average playing time for the projected players is month-based. For example, ZiPS sees no innings for Jacob deGrom at all in June or July, with most of the innings (we have the average at 15) coming in September. So each time, rather than having one distribution of expected team strength for the season, ZiPS now has six distributions for each team based on the calendar month. While the resulting changes are quite small, the sad truth is that baseball projections are mature enough after a couple decades that all improvements are tiny. It’s not just the low-hanging fruit that’s gone; you now have to climb a rickety ladder held by an inebriated friend to get the ones way up there. Let’s get into the projections before we reach a Tolkien-movie level of narrator exposition. It should go without saying, because it rarely seems to end up that way, but take this as a reminder that 0.0% is not literally 0.0%, but until mathematical elimination, a number that rounds to 0.0%. [FULL STANDINGS]( [The Rosin Bag Bag]( Something happened on Wednesday in Detroit. You've probably never seen it before. And you've still never heard about it. | by Davy Andrews [Broadcaster's View: Tales From the Minor Leagues]( Eating stink bugs for money, a snake eating a snake, and a lot of basebrawls. Five broadcasters share entertaining anecdotes from their time down on the farm. | by David Laurila [Five Things I Liked (Or Didn't Like) This Week, May 31]( Intra-division animus and batted balls that caused chaos without leaving the infield highlight this week's slate. | by Ben Clemens [A Dilettante’s Guide to the NCAA Tournament, Part 1]( It’s the best weekend of TV in the baseball season, and one of the best sports-watching weekends out there full stop. But coming in completely cold can be a little difficult. | by Michael Baumann [A Dilettante’s Guide to the NCAA Tournament, Part 2]( Stock up on snacks, cancel all your plans, and get ready to binge watch baseball until your eyes go screwy. | by Michael Baumann [Top of the Order: Here’s What a Mets Teardown Could Look Like]( Selling at the trade deadline is the Mets’ only viable option unless they turn things around soon. Let’s look at some of the players who could be on the move. | by Jon Becker 🎧 [Effectively Wild Episode 2171: The Tipping Point]( [DOWNLOAD THE FANGRAPHS APP]( [FanGraphs & Effectively Wild Merch Is Now Available at BreakingT!]( [ORDER HERE]( [2024 MLB Awards Watch: MVP, Cy Young and more as May ends]( by Bradford Doolittle, ESPN [Julio Rodríguez is Coming; Will the Mariners Follow?]( by Randy Holt, Pitcher List [Did Satchel Paige throw more no-hitters than Nolan Ryan? As MLB adds Negro League stats, it’s unclear]( by Jayson Stark, The Athletic ($) [@fangraphs]( [FanGraphs]( [FanGraphs]( [RSS]( [FORWARD]( [SUBSCRIBE]( Copyright © 2024 FanGraphs Inc, All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you subscribed to the FanGraphs Newsletter. Our mailing address is: FanGraphs Inc 3017 N Underwood StArlington, VA 22213 [Add us to your address book]( Want to change how you receive these emails? You can [update your preferences]( or [unsubscribe from this list](