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Investors weigh the Federal Reserve’s next steps, China’s exports surprise and Manhattan rents soar to a record. — Kristine AquinoUS equity [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Investors weigh the Federal Reserve’s next steps, China’s exports surprise and Manhattan rents soar to a record. — [Kristine Aquino]( Fed aftermath US equity futures and European stocks rose as [investors weighed the path of Fed interest-rate increases](for the rest of 2023. Minutes of the Fed’s March meeting signaled officials appear on track to extend their run of hikes when they meet next month, while staff advisers forecast a “mild recession” later this year. Economists see the most likely outcome as a quarter-point increase in May, followed by an extended pause. But the language in the minutes, coupled with some officials’ comments and a still-uncertain outlook for the impact of credit tightening on the economy, point to a rate path that may not be fully settled. China surprise [China’s exports unexpectedly rose in March]( as demand from most Asian countries and Europe improved and the nation’s factories resumed production. Exports jumped 14.8% in dollar terms last month from a year earlier, while economists had forecast a fall of more than 7%, resulting in the biggest divergence from expectations since at least 2018. While the data reflect a “good phase of the economic cycle,” Standard Chartered’s Ding Shuang noted that “the challenge will grow in the second half of the year” when the US economy is likely to stagnate and the effects of Fed monetary policy tightening on China’s foreign trade will probably increase. Manhattan madness [Manhattan apartment landlords are testing renters’ limits]( even before the market’s busiest season. The median monthly rate rose to a record $4,175 in March, according to a report Thursday by appraiser Miller Samuel and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate. That’s up $25 from the previous peak reached in July, and almost 13% more than a year ago.  Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel, noted that the average lease was signed with a 0.7% discount from the listing price, well below the 5% discount that new leases got in February. “Landlords are finding that they’re pushing rents and they’re actually getting it,” Miller said. Upbeat markets S&P 500 futures climbed 0.2% at 5:47 a.m., while Nasdaq 100 contracts rose 0.3%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index traded near the day’s low, boosting all other Group-of-10 currencies. Treasury yields edged higher across the curve in quiet trading. Oil treaded lower while gold rose, and Bitcoin climbs back above $30,000. Coming up… At 8:30 a.m., we’ll get initial jobless claims data. At 11:30 a.m., the US will sell $60 billion of four-week bills and $50 billion of eight-week securities, followed by $18 billion 30-year bonds at 1 p.m. OPEC is due to publish its monthly oil market report later today. What we’ve been reading Here’s what caught our eye over the past 24 hours: - [JPMorgan calls managing directors to the office](five days a week - [Apple triples its India iPhone output](to $7 billion, in a shift from China - [UK strikes threaten]( the Conservative party’s hopes for economic recovery - [A breakdown in the US-Saudi oil pact]( gives Russia the upper hand - [ A fresh, but mild, Covid wave]( is rippling across Asia - [How a Korean drama series on Netflix](spurred a crackdown on bullying - [California’s superbloom]( after a historically wet winter, in photos And finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in this morning So we got the big CPI report yesterday, and it came in a bit on the cool side. But before getting into that, here's a big picture zoom-out of the CPI trajectory, using various ways of slicing the data. Mostly it looks pretty good. We shot up hard throughout 2021. It peaked sometime in 2022, and now the lines are all going down. Of course there are a million different asterisks and caveats that could be employed here. [As Jason Furman pointed out](, a lot of the progress is related to the unwinding of the commodity spike that occurred in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In the meantime, there are other reasons to think that we won't just nicely sail back to the Fed's target. Gas prices have stopped falling for now. Used cars in yesterday's report were a net drag, but there are signs that that's firming up again, so they might start contributing to inflation yet again. So the coast isn't clear. On the other hand, a lot of people got burned in the other direction on the way up by dismissing certain drivers as idiosyncratic. So you could go either way perhaps, say that it's a mistake to do too much spelunking in the data and instead just view the big sweep. Or say, look, there's still a troubling amount of underlying inflation that doesn't seem to be going away. Anyway. There does appear to be some progress, but there's probably a good argument to be made that the progress is still on the slow side. But this also gets to another question. The labor market remains robust. We're at 3.5% unemployment. Other measures, like the Labor Force Participation Rate continue to improve. These are all good things and at some point, the Fed is going to have to decide what the welfare costs of weakening the labor market are worth relative to the welfare gains of getting back to 2% in a timely manner. It's virtually impossible to imagine that the Fed would formally raise its inflation target or anything like that. But perhaps at some point, the Fed will express more confidence that the lines are going in the right direction. And as [Blackrock expressed earlier in the week](, the aggressiveness in fighting inflation will slow even with the target not having been reached. Follow Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal on Twitter [@TheStalwart](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things to Start Your Day: Americas Edition newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. 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