The Trump conviction

What Trump’s conviction means for US credibility [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. Half of the world awoke to a “Donald Trump Found Guilty” headline. Many won’t be surprised that the former US president is now also [a convicted felon](. Cynical observers may wonder if it will even influence the course of the November election or how much it matters beyond US borders. How can that be? For one, many Americans made up their minds long ago about whether Trump was a crook or not. Die-hard supporters will look at what went down in the court room — when a [jury found him guilty]( of cooking the books to pay for the silence of a porn star — and see political persecution. That is a narrative that Trump has successfully [spun to raise money](. Republicans have embraced it and will officially announce Trump is their nominee mere days after he is sentenced on July 11. “The real verdict is going to be November 5, by the people,” he said as he left the court. WATCH: Trump reacts to the verdict. Source: Bloomberg The legal precedent looks different abroad. It won’t be lost on many of America’s allies and foes that the US joins a [growing club]( of major democracies such as France, Brazil and South Korea that have seen former leaders found guilty of serious crimes. What it means to them is a rather more complicated question. The historic nature of Trump’s conviction will be met with a degree of cold detachment, not least because the former US leader already took a wrecking ball to global norms during his four years in office. Many have their own problems and elections and have seen the US retreat from its traditional role as the world’s standard bearer for good governance. China views the US as a power in decline and has drawn a growing cast of strongmen in its orbit. Internationally, the US has been losing credibility for years, from the war in Iraq to its support for Israel’s actions in Gaza. That it might elect a criminal for president simply gives more ammunition to those pushing for the demise of the US-led world order. —[Flavia Krause-Jackson]( Trump supporters outside the Manhattan Criminal Courthouse yesterday. Photographer: Yuki Iwamura/Bloomberg Global Must Reads US President Joe Biden’s advisers have insisted for months that his embrace of Israel has resulted in the least [bad outcome in the war in Gaza]( by reining in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s impulses and preventing even worse bloodshed. But as harrowing scenes of death and destruction continue to emerge from the Palestinian enclave, that stance is coming under more scrutiny. Mexico will hold its largest elections ever on Sunday and probably for the [first time put a woman in charge]( of Latin America’s second-biggest economy. But everywhere one looks is the figure of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, and nobody is more aware of this than Claudia Sheinbaum, a former Mexico City mayor and the chosen candidate for his Morena party. WATCH: AMLO leaves Mexico’s military the largest and most powerful the country has ever seen. Source: Bloomberg The latest election results from South Africa suggest the ruling African National Congress may not only lose its majority, but do so by a [margin wider than expected](. That has left business people and investors swinging between anxiety over the different permutations that a coalition may take and lingering hopes that whatever it is will result in a market-friendly government. China said it is ending some tariff breaks agreed to under a trade deal with Taiwan, blaming the new leader of the democratically run island [for undermining the pact](. Beijing — which has pledged to bring Taiwan under its control someday, by force if necessary — has ramped up pressure on President Lai Ching-te since he took office last week. Keir Starmer’s purge of the left wing of his Labour Party in a bid to make Britain’s opposition electable again after 14 years in the cold may backfire. An escalating controversy over the treatment of the UK’s first Black woman MP, Diane Abbott, risks [undermining his control]( of the election campaign. The US and UK struck 13 Houthi targets in Yemen, killing at least 16 people [in the deadliest assault]( on the Iran-backed group since the start of a campaign to prevent its attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico was released from hospital to undergo treatment at home as he recovers from injuries [sustained in an assassination attempt]( this month. Lithuania would be willing to send personnel to help [train troops on Ukrainian soil](, Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte said. Washington Dispatch The decision by Biden to allow Ukraine to [carry out strikes on Russian territory]( with American weapons marks a significant shift in policy for an administration that has sought to avoid the risk of a wider war. This concession, however, only extends to the border area of Kharkiv, where Ukraine has been trying to turn back a Russian offensive, according to a top US official, who added that Biden still won’t allow long-range attacks with US weapons. With Russian President Vladimir Putin’s determination to pursue the invasion as strong as ever and with the Pentagon’s intelligence arm reporting that Putin’s forces [have fired North Korean missiles](, Ukraine’s supporters seem more willing to sanction cross-border attacks. At the same time, a US official says, the administration is close to completing talks on a [bilateral security agreement]( with Ukraine. One thing to watch today: The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, will be released for April. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Source: GlobalData Bottles of beer emblazoned with the five Olympic rings are already rolling off the production line at Anheuser-Busch InBev’s brewery in Belgium, in preparation for the games in Paris this summer. But the drink — Corona Cero — doesn’t have any alcohol. Worth $13 billion and counting, brands from Heineken to Guinness, and now Corona, see a [cohort of health-conscious consumers]( whose wallets they can tap. And Finally New York City aims to reduce vehicle emissions as part of its goal of reaching net zero by 2050, by which point the city also wants electric cars to account for 20% of new registrations. But getting there will require a robust and reliable charging network. Until there is one in place, some car owners in the metro area, like Sal Cameli, [are finding creative workarounds]( for limited street charging. Cameli fastens the EV charger from his home window to a signpost. Photographer: Sarah Blesener/Bloomberg Pop quiz (no cheating!) Which country sent more than 100 balloons over the border to dump “filth” on its neighbor? 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