What to expect when Biden and Putin meet in Geneva

[Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( With relations at their worst in years, the U.S. and Russia are setting [expectations]( so low for today’s summit between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin in Geneva that it will be considered a success simply for taking place. As [Nick Wadhams]( and [Ilya Arkhipov]( report, the leaders may agree to begin talks for a strategic arms accord to replace the New START treaty before it expires in 2026. Returning the U.S. and Russian ambassadors to their posts also looks like a potential easy step to ease tensions. Nevertheless, multiple dividing lines will [remain](, from Ukraine to election meddling, hacking attacks, and human rights amid a Kremlin crackdown on Putin critics, including jailed opposition leader Alexey Navalny. Biden says he’s seeking “stable and predictable” [relations]( while warning Russia will pay a price for “harmful activities.” Yet it was Putin’s military buildup at the Ukrainian border that [prompted]( Biden’s summit invitation, even as the U.S. administration’s main focus is the challenge from China. Fresh from summits with the Group of Seven, the European Union and NATO, Biden is intent on showing Putin the West is united after the divisions of the Donald Trump years that Russia exploited. Unlike the notorious 2018 summit in Helsinki, when Trump sided with Putin against U.S. intelligence agencies on election meddling, there will be no joint press conference. Putin and Biden will make separate statements, with the U.S. leader trying to have the last word by speaking second. But Putin has repeatedly [shown]( his ability to wrong-foot the West. While each side blames the other for the deterioration in ties, any U.S. [attempt]( to “park” relations with Russia risks handing Putin the initiative while leaving the West none the wiser about his intentions. For the Kremlin, that would count as a win. — [Anthony Halpin]( Putin shaking hands with U.S. Presidents (from top left) Bill Clinton in 1999, George W. Bush in 2006, Barack Obama in 2012 and Donald Trump in 2019. Photo by Stephen Jaffe, Jim Watson, Alexey Nikolsky, Mikhail Klimentyev/Ria Novosti/AFP/Getty Images Check out all our biggest stories on the Bloomberg Politics web page [here]( and tell us how we’re doing or what we’re missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net. Global Headlines Violence returns | Israeli aircraft struck sites belonging to the Gaza Strip’s ruling Hamas movement for the first time since an 11-day conflict last month, after incendiary balloons launched from the Palestinian territory set multiple fires in southern Israel. It mars a fragile truce and poses an early [test]( for Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who took power in Israel just three days ago. Trade thaw | The U.S. and U.K. are seeking a truce in a trade [dispute]( involving Airbus and Boeing after the Biden administration and the EU agreed to suspend tariffs on $11.5 billion of each other’s exports. U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai meets British counterpart Liz Truss today in London, with both sides keen to hash out a deal, sources say. - [Read how]( a rare surrender by Alphabet’s Google to French and U.K. regulators may embolden more antitrust enforcers. Rebellious mood | U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s decision to [prolong]( England’s Covid-19 lockdown is the last extension many in his own party will bear after 15 months of restrictions, sources say. While Parliament is likely today to approve the delay, it has triggered a backlash from Tory lawmakers who had dubbed the end of lockdown “Freedom Day.” Help wanted | Australia is looking to [recruit]( Southeast Asian farmhands as the pandemic and a free-trade deal with the U.K. exacerbate labor shortages in agriculture. With the industry struggling to fill jobs requiring strenuous manual work, the government aims to offer three-year visas to people from countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines. Missed opportunity | Japan’s government [dropped]( a promised law on LGBT rights, failing on a ruling-party pledge just weeks before it hosts what’s meant to be a “diversity” Olympics. Japan lags its G-7 peers on civil rights and LGBT protections, and delays may make the country, with its aging population, less attractive to the skilled foreign workers it needs. Paid Post [Southern California Edison]( is leading the charge for clean, more renewable energy. We’re a national leader in solar delivery. We’re striving to cut emissions from buildings and freeways. And we proudly support the fastest growing green jobs in the nation. Southern California Edison What to Watch - China stepped up its campaign to [rein]( in commodity prices, with state firms ordered to control risks and limit their exposure to overseas commodities markets, sources say. - Nine days after a presidential runoff in Peru, electoral authorities completed the vote [count]( that showed leftist Pedro Castillo edging out Keiko Fujimori by 44,058 ballots. - Reformist and former Vice President Mohsen Mehralizadeh [dropped]( out of Iran’s presidential race ahead of the Friday vote, state-run media reported. And finally ... Dreadlocked, pacifist former software architect Ivan Bartos doesn’t look like a typical EU leader, but he’s poised to steer his Czech Pirate Party to [victory]( in October elections. He’s pledging to deepen ties with the bloc after regional allies Poland and Hungary clashed with Brussels over rule-of-law issues and shake up a political scene dominated by a pro-Russian president and a billionaire premier who’s been found in conflict of interest concerning EU funds. Bartos in parliament. Photographer: Milan Jaros/Bloomberg   Like Balance of Power? [Get unlimited access to Bloomberg.com](, where you'll find trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters.  You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022