A message to the West

[Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( Did Alexander Lukashenko, in power since 1994 in Belarus and holding on despite an election last year that international experts say was rigged, play what in British sporting parlance is known as a “blinder”? On the surface of it, the extraordinary move to [force]( a Ryanair commercial jetliner to divert and land in Minsk under military escort with the apparent pretext of a bomb threat, to offload a [dissident]( journalist, would seem self-defeating. Lukashenko has managed to unite Europe in [outrage]( at the violation of international travel protocols. While the flight later continued to Lithuania, Raman Pratasevich was kept behind. European leaders holding a scheduled summit starting today in Brussels will have this added to their plates. They’re considering fresh sanctions, and possibly a move to suspend transit between Belarus and European Union nations. The U.S. also [condemned]( Lukashenko’s actions. He is arguably now even more dependent on Russian President Vladimir Putin — his biggest backer, with Russia an economic lifeline — than before. It could cast a shadow over a potential summit between Putin and U.S. President Joe Biden next month. Even so, this may well have happened with Moscow’s consent or even backing. After a recent spike in tensions with Ukraine — which drew criticism of Russia from Washington — this could send a signal to Europe and the U.S. not to meddle in Putin’s neighborhood. Tellingly, Lukashenko and Putin are reported to be meeting later this week. Already Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is out saying Moscow is ready to support Belarus. For Belarusians, it’s the latest reminder that Lukashenko won’t tolerate [dissent](. The EU actions may not amount to a significant penalty for him. When the dust settles, it’s just possible Lukashenko gets away with it, at least for the moment. — [Rosalind Mathieson]( Pratasevich when he was earlier detained by police in Minsk in 2017. Photographer: Sergei Grits/AP Photo Click [here]( to follow Bloomberg Politics on Facebook and tell us how we’re doing or what we’re missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net. Global Headlines Chip danger | A surge in coronavirus infections in Taiwan — with only about 1% of its population immunized so far — and a dispute with China over vaccine access threatens to [trigger]( an island-wide lockdown and disrupt a semiconductor industry that’s critical to already squeezed global supply. [Alan Crawford](, [Debby Wu]( and [Iain Marlow]( explain how the predicament illustrates its strategic yet vulnerable position at the confluence of U.S.-China tensions. Mounting anxiety | Democratic congressional staffers are [paring]( down plans for Biden’s proposed tax increases, wary of Republican criticism that higher rates could damage growth. Their concern is heightened by the pace of the economic recovery, with more than 8 million Americans still without jobs than before the pandemic. - Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s plan to pass a bill this week to help the U.S. [compete]( with China faces delay because of Republican requests for changes. Seeking a deal | As talks involving global powers resume this week in Vienna, Iran is likely to [extend]( a United Nations nuclear inspections agreement by another month. That will help buy diplomats time to negotiate the return of the U.S. to the 2015 nuclear accord and usher in a reentry of the Persian Gulf nation to world oil markets in exchange for curbs on its atomic work. The 18% rise in [prices]( of solar modules since the start of the year — fueled by a quadrupling in the cost of the key raw material polysilicon — threatens to delay projects in India and the U.S. Urging restraint | China intensified its weeks-long campaign to cool a raw-materials boom, vowing “[zero]( tolerance” for monopolies in spot and futures markets in a sign its demand for commodities may be teetering. With global prices hitting record highs, officials are trying to [reduce]( some of the speculative froth that’s driven markets. - Read [here]( about how China’s “bad bank” poses a crucial test of a debt-ridden system. Ethiopia penalties | The U.S. imposed “wide-ranging” economic [sanctions]( on Ethiopia to push it to end violence in the Tigray region that has killed thousands of people and displaced hundreds of thousands more. The action sets back relations between two longtime allies in the fight against Islamist militants in the Horn of Africa. - Read [here]( about the expulsion of [Simon Marks](, a journalist who was reporting for Bloomberg News and other media organizations. What to Watch This Week - China’s top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, will [visit]( Russia today for strategic talks, the Foreign Ministry said. - Former banker Guillermo Lasso takes office as Ecuador’s president today, [promising]( to dig the nation out of its deepest economic slump in decades. - South Africa’s state security minister said she’s making [headway]( in turning around the country’s dysfunctional spy agency in the face of fierce opposition from some staff. - A volcanic [eruption]( in eastern Congo over the weekend killed two people and damaged 17 villages. - Dominic Cummings, the former chief aide of U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, is due to give evidence on the government’s [handling]( of the pandemic to lawmakers on Wednesday. Thanks to everyone who answered our Friday quiz question and congratulations to Mostapha Koja Nahhal, who was first to name Singapore as the country where two bloggers turned to [crowdfunding]( to pay damages and costs from defamation suits brought by the nation’s leader. And finally ... Researchers are working on a pilot program backed by Russia’s Rosatom to inject rhino horns with [radioactive]( material that would help track them along international borders. As [Paul Burkhardt]( reports, it’s part of efforts to discourage the illegal hunting that remains the gravest threat to the nearly 20,000 animals in South Africa — the world’s biggest population. Almost 400 were killed last year. A rhino at a private game reserve in South Africa that’s part of the pilot project. Source: Rosatom   Like Balance of Power? [Get unlimited access to Bloomberg.com](, where you'll find trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters.  You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022