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[Bloomberg]( Investors cheer Fed patience, Deutsche Bank sees merger by summer, and Trump to meet Chinese Vice Premier. Patience is a virtue Bulls are cheering after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled the bank is [finished raising rates for now](. U.S. stocks are set for their biggest January rally [in three decades](, with European markets in line for their [biggest monthly gain]( since October 2015. Interest-rate futures are showing few signs of another hike in 2019, and have raised the chances of[ a cut in 2020](. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists see just a [25 percent chance of a rate rise]( in the second quarter, down from 55 percent previously. If all else fails Time seems to be running out for Deutsche Bank AG to prove that it can stand on its own feet. Executives at the bank, ahead of fourth-quarter results tomorrow, are concerned that a [government-brokered merger with rival Commerzbank AG]( may quickly become the only option if there is no turnaround in the first three months of this year, people briefed on their thinking said. The lender dropped more than 3 percent in Frankfurt trading this morning, with Commerzbank also losing ground. Sponsor Content by PIMCO 2019 Cyclical Outlook: Synching Lower Is it the end of U.S. exceptionalism? In [“Synching Lower,” our 2019 cyclical outlook](, we take a closer look at how U.S. markets are "catching down" to global markets and what investors can expect in the year ahead.  Trade talks President Donald Trump will meet China's Vice Premier Liu He in the Oval Office today as two days of [high-level trade talks]( come to an end will little indication so far that China is willing to bend to U.S. demands. While a breakthrough was never expected at this point, investors will look to the concluding statement promised by the White House for progress on core issues such as intellectual property rights, market access and promises to buy more American goods. The deadline for striking a trade deal is March 1. To the brink The European Union has long learned that the time for brinksmanship is literally at the brink -- and they seem happy to push Brexit talks to the very edge of the [March 29 exit date]( in order to create maximum pressure for a deal. While the EU says the existing arrangement is [not up for renegotiation](, there may be room to allow an extension of the current deadline, although the appetite for further dragging out the issue [appears low](. Coming up… Initial jobless claims data at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time will give one last look at the employment situation ahead of tomorrow’s payrolls number. November’s new home-sales data is at 10:00 a.m. The huge week for [corporate earnings]( continues with Amazon.com Inc., General Electric Co., DowDuPont Inc., and Baker Hughes all set to report. What we've been reading This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours. - Elizabeth Warren says "[capitalism without rules is theft](." - The forces that could [plunge Venezuela into chaos](. - Hundreds more Chinese companies [just warned on profits](. - This is what [Apple is planning]( for its new iPhones. - Another chapter of the [Lehman saga]( closes. - Central banks are on the biggest gold-buying [spree]( in a half century. - Engineers move a step closer to [self-aware robots](. And finally, here’s what Joe's interested in this morning The more dovish stance that the Fed took yesterday has renewed claims that there's essentially a "Fed put" or a "Powell put" out there in the market. In other words, for as much as they talk about focusing on the real economy, there's a deep-seated suspicion that they want to avoid a sustained drop in the stock market, thus subsidizing risk-taking investors. What struck me is that during his press conference, Jerome Powell kind of admitted this was the case. In response to a question from Bloomberg's Mike McKee, Powell said a sustained tightening of financial conditions (as seen through stocks, currency, interest rates and credit spreads) had to be watched because they could have important macroeconomic implications. And then he said: "In fact, our policy works through changing financial conditions, so it's sort of a—it's sort of the essence of what we do." So there you go. Interest-rate policy doesn't have a huge direct impact on actual business investment but according to Powell, it does have an impact on financial conditions. And if you look at a chart of something like the Goldman Sachs US Financial Conditions Index, you can see that it more or less rises and falls with the stock market. So, if financial markets are a main transmission mechanism for Fed policy, then talking about a "Fed put" really isn't much of a conspiracy theory. It's just how it works. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? [Subscribe for unlimited access]( to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. [Learn more](. [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]( [Twitter Share]( [SEND TO A FRIEND [Share with a friend]]( You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things newsletter. 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