5 things to start your day

[Bloomberg Markets]( [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]([Twitter Share]( [SUBSCRIBE [Subscribe]](  Forward Guidance  D.C. machinations intensify over Russia probe, geopolitical risks rise and Fed strikes slightly hawkish note. D.C. drama President Donald Trump is taking an increasingly [combative]( posture toward Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s ongoing Russia probe after FBI agents raided the home of his lawyer Michael Cohen on Monday. Trump discussed firing Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein with White House aides on Wednesday, a person familiar with the matter said. The president took to Twitter to [deny]( a December report he planned to fire Mueller even as he continues to attack the Russia investigation and the Justice Department. Congressional Republicans, meanwhile, have moved to head off any attempt to [eject](the special counsel. A bill is in the works to ensure he can only be fired for “good cause,” a move that would likely [paralyze]( Trump’s administration.  War drums The commander-in-chief is mulling [options]( for military action against Syria after he met with Defense Secretary Jim Mattis on Wednesday. Using Twitter as a sounding board for policy, he tweeted this morning: "Never said when an attack on Syria would take place. Could be very soon or not so soon at all!" Middle Eastern tensions are rising: Saudi Arabia intercepted a ballistic missile in Riyadh while shooting down [two drones]( in another part of the country yesterday, in the latest attacks by Iranian-backed Yemeni rebels with improved military capabilities. U.K. leader Theresa May called an emergency Cabinet meeting for Thursday afternoon to discuss how the government will respond. Oil [soared]( to the highest in three years before steadying on concern over disrupted supplies. Fed faster Federal Reserve officials moved toward a “slightly steeper” pace of interest-rate increases over the next few years as the outlook for growth and inflation brightens, according to minutes from the March meeting. At the same time, a "strong majority" of Jerome Powell's colleagues expressed concern a trade war would harm the economy. Still, they are likely to be sanguine over any [increase]( in inflation from protectionist policies given the transitory impact. Most Fed officials penciled in two or three more hikes this year, with traders now pricing in an 80 percent chance of an interest-rate increase in June. The minutes underscore the Fed’s well-telegraphed bid to normalize policies rather than constituting a fresh shift in a hawkish direction, according to Bloomberg Economics. Markets struggle Investors are grappling with geopolitical risks, trade tensions and a hawkish Fed as U.S. stock volatility proves relentless. Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped, while Japan’s Topix index closed 0.4 percent lower with losses led by glass, rubber and coal producers. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was little changed by 5:57 a.m. Eastern Time, while the ruble extended its rebound from the lowest level in 15 months. S&P 500 futures pointed to a higher open and the 10-year Treasury yield increased to 2.788 percent. China trade Beijing will “unquestionably” [retaliate]( if the U.S. ups trade tensions, with a detailed, comprehensive counter-punch plan on stand-by, according to a Commerce Ministry spokesperson. He added that the government hasn’t conducted any negotiations at any level with American counterparts recently. Even as protectionist counter-threats intensify, China on Wednesday unveiled plans to open parts of its financial sector by June 30, stressing they have nothing to do with pressure from the White House. The country is also considering a relaxation of curbs on [stock-futures]( trading, introduced in the aftermath of the 2015 crash, people familiar with the matter said. Here's what you should read today - Low-volatility [stocks]( go global as boring comes into vogue. - The World Cup just got 10 percent [cheaper](as ruble tumbles. - JPMorgan sued over cryptocurrency [fees](. - Tesla once again blames human driver for fatal [crash](. - House prices around the world are [moving]( together like never before. - Hong Kong dollar touches key [level]( for first time since 2005. - SpaceX plans passenger [rockets](within a decade.  And finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in this morning There is a heck of a lot going on: growing Syria tensions, trade frictions, Facebook hearings, fiscal stimulus, the new Fed chair, monetary tightening, the Mueller investigation, and probably a bunch of other big themes I'm totally forgetting. In a quieter world, [yesterday's CPI data might've been the big story of the week](, given how much of a debate there is over whether the U.S. economy is on the cusp of seeing a real uptick in inflation. As it is, the release didn't get much oxygen. Nonetheless, I was looking at a Morgan Stanley report and I came across a version of this chart, which I've recreated. To be honest, it makes me feel a little dumb. The four lines are different ways of modifying the inflation numbers to distil signal from noise. When I look at it, I find it really hard to see the big change in inflation lots of people seem to think is coming. Yes, all those lines went up last month and there appears to be a bit of an uptrend. But none are really breaking out, and all have been higher in the past or recent past. For example, the two measures from the Cleveland Fed (median and trimmed-mean CPIs) are basically just where they were for years. Of course, eyeballing this stuff with a few lines on a chart is probably crude or naïve. So if you want more signs that the inflation scare may be overrated, check out the [1:04:00 mark of yesterday's episode of What'd You Miss](, where my colleague Matt Boesler broke down the data to find evidence of price softness.   Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. [Learn more.](   You received this message because you are subscribed to the Bloomberg Markets newsletter.   [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022