Tradenet Weekly Report 1-5.5.2017
Will Earnings Reports Spark Another Rally?!
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The S&P 500 closed up last week by 1.5%, making it its best week since January 6th. In summary for April, the S&P 500 recorded gains of 0.9%, its fifth positive month in the last 6 months.
The earnings report of Apple (AAPL), along with those of other key companies are likely to provide market support this coming week, but the employment report â expected to be released this coming Friday â along with other important economic numbers, are likely to be what tips the balance in either direction.
Likewise, the Federal Reserve is expected to convene on Tuesday and Wednesday â and despite the fact that it's not expected to make a policy decision, the message it shares at the end of its meeting is likely to shape movement, the market now focusing on the recent streak of figures that have come out only so-so, from the meager 98 thousand job reading for March to a decline in consumer inflation and weak retail chain figures and the disappointing Q1 growth reading of 0.7% released just this past Friday.
Some economists didn't give much weight to the weak Q1 growth figures, chalking them up to the warm temperatures seen in January and February of this year which were followed by March's winter storms. That being the case, most economists expect to see a surge in Q2 growth, with projections as high as 3%. In tandem, between now and then, the economic figures have to lend support. Until now, the stock market has ignored the economic shortfalls, focusing in their stead on the super-strong earnings numbers of American firms.
We know that at an unemployment rate of 4.5%, the American job market is at full employment. How low can April's reading go? Economists' consensus is that 185 thousand jobs were added in April. With that said, a second straight reading that's weak is likely to cause people to cast doubt on the economy's strength.
The economic figures that will be released this coming week will be very important, especially on the background of the slight decline on the Consumer Confidence Index, published this past Friday. According to a UBS research report, when the Consumer Confidence Index starts falling, stock market performance and stocks' multipliers also start taking a turn for the worse.
On the geopolitical front, the tensions between North Korea and the U.S. will continue to be headline news, after North Korea's failed missile test on Friday evening. Likewise, the second round of the French elections will take place on May 7th. Markets have traded calmly since the first presidential voting round results were released. In the second round, the centrist, Emmanuel Macron, is expected to defeat the far-right Marine Le Pen, who supports an EU divorce.
By the time the end of this coming week rolls around, most S&P 500 companies will have already reported their Q1 financial results. Be primed for earnings reports this week from a wide range of companies, Apple (AAPL) at the helm, but besides it, also be on the lookout for the results of Facebook (FB), Pfizer (PFE), Kraft-Heinz (KHC) and MasterCard (MA).
Expectations have S&P 500 companies recording year-over-year quarterly earnings growth of 13.6%, that projection based on the companies already reporting and updated earnings forecasts for those firms yet to do so. Until now, 77% of companies have succeeding in beating out their earnings forecasts.
In Summary for the Week: Stock indexes ended up, the Dow rising 1.87%, the S&P 500 tacking on 1.49% and the NASDAQ jumping 2.59%.
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