Tradenet Weekly Report 3-7.7.2017
This Coming Week: Fireworks on Wall Street! [Download full Report](
The curtain has closed on the first half of the trading year after volatile movement got the better of stocks on Wall Street last week, the major indexes ending lower. Nothing, though, could take away from the S&P 500 its best gains for the first half of the year since 2013, the NASDAQ even outdoing the S&P 500 with its best first 2 quarters in 8 years.
Despite tech stocks (ETF: XLK) having sputtered all June long, the sector was the marquee story in the first half of the year, skyrocketing 16.4%, double the stellar gains of 8.2% on the S&P 500. The tech-leaning NASDAQ, when push came to shove, soared 14.1% in the first half of the year.
All of this notwithstanding, what's in store for the NASDAQ is anybody's guess, the index ending down 2% this past week, likewise shedding 0.9% in June. It was the index's first losing month since taking a spill of 2.3% in October of last year. After having recorded its most recent all-time high on June 9th, things for the NASDAQ took a turn for the worse on the heels of the high valuations of leading tech stocks, including but not limited to Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), and Google (GOOGL), better known by traders as FAANG.
Weekly Summary: The week ended in the red all around, the Dow Jones slipping 0.23%, the S&P 500 ending off 0.55% and the NASDAQ tumbling 2.55%.
Investors will keep their eyes carefully trained on tech stocks in light of the sharp spike in volatility over the last few weeks, but most importantly, in light of the fact that the tech sector constitutes an aggregate weight of 23% on the S&P 500, outweighing the financial and health sectors.
Investors have been concerned over the last few weeks that mixed economic figures â at a time when the Fed has started hiking rates from drop-bottom levels â could ultimately drag down the economy. The Q2 reporting season is expected to really get going in about two weeks' time, S&P 500 companies expected to record bottom-line earnings growth of 8%.
Investors are hoping that firm earnings can support stocks' historically expensive price valuations. The S&P 500 is traded at a 12-month forward PE of 18, compared to a historic average of just 15.
The coming trading week will be shortened in light of American July 4th celebrations, markets closed on Tuesday. Investors, though, will certainly be expecting fireworks, on July 4th and in the marketplace thereafter, this week certain to keep them on their toes! From the economic figures coming out this week â to the volatility that's just started to break out in the tech sector, and even Trump's endless torrent of twits, there will be no lack of catalysts for stocks in the first few trading days of July. It will be a week chock full of economic news, news that will undoubtedly direct stock movement on Wall Street.
One of the things weighing on the market is whether the market is slowing down, given the weak economic figures that have been released over the last few weeks. That's the reason investors are expected to be primed and ready for each new incoming figure; they'll be looking for hints as to whether what the economy's experiencing is perfectly typical, it being a weaker season of the year â or whether we're talking about a more sweeping downturn with farther reaching implications.
Monday gets going with manufacturing figures and car sales numbers. When considering low-level inflation and Janet Yellen's speech in London last week (the Fed Chair commented that she doesn't expect a significant financial crisis in her lifetime), investors will definitely give weight to the minutes from the latest central bank meeting which in its own right led to a quarter point rate hike. On Thursday, be on the lookout for initial unemployment claims, a reading that will offer a preview into the official June employment report which will be released on Friday morning.
The buildup in expectations leading up to Friday's critical report will hang over the whole week. After the disappointment from May's reading, i.e. the only 138 thousand positions added in the American job market, many analysts are betting that this past month's reading will come out stronger. Wall Street economists are expecting 174 thousand new jobs, the unemployment rate expected to rise slightly to 4.4% from the 4.3% recorded the month prior.
Have a great trading week!
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