Tradenet Weekly Report 10-14.4.2017
Whatâs Going to Drive the Market this Week?!
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The 4 days leading up to Wall Streetâs Easter break are usually boring and blasé in the marketplace. Donât expect that this time! Weâre expecting a lot of action before markets close for trading on Friday. First-off, the earnings season kicks off this week with 2 large banks, J.P. Morgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC), which will be reporting this Thursday â analysts hoping that a super strong earnings season will prompt investors to redirect their sights from Washington to the economic fundamentals.
Also this week, Fed Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, will be speaking on Monday afternoon. This weekâs key economic figures will likewise include ones pertaining to consumer behavior, most of which will be released on âGood Friday,â when the market will be closed. These figures will be especially important this time around, after Marchâs weak employment report this past Friday raised concern about the economic growth pace.
This past week was jam-packed with different events on Wall Street â economic and otherwise â but when all was said and done, after a number of downward corrections and rallies, the indexes ended only slightly changed. Small-cap stocks lagged behind, with weakness afoot, though not enough to change the overall picture, i.e. an uptrend under pressure.
On Wednesday, we got an ADP report that came out stronger than expected, though on Friday, the official employment report came out significantly weaker than expected, inclement weather the culprit. In addition to the employment state, additional concerns are expected to surface, the Fed giving voice to its plan to taper its balance sheet which has mushroomed to $4.5 trillion after its bond-buying spree these last few years. On Wednesday, the market bounced back in the afternoon from its fears earlier in the day, though as had been the case many a time, negative momentum didnât really succeed in gaining steam. Apparently, Fridayâs weak employment report, slightly softened apprehensions that the Fed stands to aggressively slash its balance sheet.
There was also political news last week, Pres. Trump giving the green light to blow up a Syrian airbase, but the weakness was quick to come and go, the market quickly shrugging off the geopolitical development. Also, the latest concerns about the pace of tax reform and that of other fiscal initiatives had little bearing on market movement this past week.
Despite the fact that there was news aplenty this past week, it did little in eliciting strong emotion, in either direction. Price corrections were quickly checked by opportunistic buyers, and on the flipside, surges in stock valuations were quickly met by selling, leaving overall movement flat. This is a superb environment for day traders to thrive in, seeing that they couldnât care less if the marketâs moved come the end of the week as long as intraday volatility abounds! Traders holding positions for a little bit longer, i.e. for not just part of a trading week â and who have to follow the trend â are having a bit of a more difficult time.
The entrenched weakness in small-cap stocks is a problem, though the S&P 500 continues to piggyback on the 50 period EMA, doing whatâs necessary to preserve its technical position. The bears have mounds and mounds of logical arguments why weâre in for a downturn, but to date, price movement has refused to coopt their pessimism.
The Q1 earnings season is approaching and of course, weâll be seeing enough headlines from Washington to make your head spin, but the best approach now is to not try to anticipate the next movement, but rather, remain alert, follow the price movement, and be ready to respond the moment the marketâs colors change!
In Summary for the Week: Stock indexes ended mixed. The Dow Jones rose 0.02%. The S&P 500 recorded losses of 0.23%, the NASDAQ slipping 0.31%.
Have a great week!
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