Here's why this prominent economist is raising doubts

Dear Reader, Most major economic indicators show the labor market — while showing signs of potential cooling — remains very strong .However, there has been a troubling recent move in one closely watched metric: weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits. Initial Claims have gone up for four consecutive weeks, and it currently sits at its highest level since November 2021. One thing to note about the claims metric is that it’s been seasonally adjusted. In other words, the Department of Labor (DOL), which conducts the survey, will adjust the published number higher or lower to massage out noise created by seasonal influences (e.g., weather) and calendar influences (e.g., holidays). In theory, these adjustments should make it easier to identify unusual emerging trends. However, at least one economist believes these adjustments may be helping advance a faulty narrative. “I see commentators pointing at the rise in claims over the past three months as being the relevant recession indicator,” Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors, wrote. “I think the plunge in claims earlier this year reflected distorted seasonal adjustment factors due to the pandemic.” Massive swings in various economic metrics over the past two years have created all sorts of issues in how economists model their data. “My main point is that I think we should dismiss the rise in claims so far this year as being an artifact of the seasonal adjustment process; the future path of claims likely has more information value,” Duy said. Generally speaking, it’s never good to put too much weight into a single metric. That said, we still shouldn’t be totally surprised if we eventually learn of a material uptick in unemployment, considering how most economic metrics are signaling a broad economic slowdown. Editor, Silver Ridge Market Report Andrew Graham [Andrew Graham] P.S.  Even during the worst bear market, about one out of every five stocks does well. The key is finding that 20%. [That's why we created our weekly alert service — which we can offer to you, completely free of charge.]( After all, there's nothing like a big takeover bid… or a technical breakthrough… to break through the noise, and rocket a stock upwards. [Join us on the ride. Get your free weekly stock alert here.]( 316 Media and Silver Ridge Market Report, is not giving individualized financial advice. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. 316 Media or Silver Ridge Market Report is not giving financial, investment, or stock advice. Our content is designed for generalized informational purposes only. If you have specific questions about investments or stocks you should consult a financial advisor. Articles, News, Or Other published materials are not always the views of 316 Media and/or Silver Ridge Market Report. If you feel you are receiving these emails in error please email Support@SilverRidgePro.com or click the unsubscribe button below. 316 Media 30 N Gould St, Ste R, Sheridan United States of America [(307) 200-9389](tel:(307)%20200-9389) srmr@silverridgepro.com [Unsubscribe](