Consumer Resilience = Fed Headache

Dear Reader, Contrary to the daily news cycle, the hard evidence continues to show that the U.S. economy is booming. According to a Census Bureau report, retail sales grew 0.9% to a record $677.7 billion in April from March. Restaurants and bars, department stores, electronics and appliance stores, and clothing stores led the growth. Strength in these categories reflects a lot of discretionary spending, which contradicts the idea that consumers may be getting more conservative with their spending. Everyone from economists at big banks like Goldman Sachs to billionaire Elon Musk have been warning about the risks of a recession. But the evidence shows that consumers aren’t feeling the strain, at least yet. Indeed, consumers continue to be in good shape financially. They’re sitting on more than $2 trillion worth of excess savings, which represents a massive tailwind for the economy. The U.S. labor market has also added a whopping 2.1 million jobs this year. While inflation undoubtedly plays a role in propping up the headline numbers, underlying inflation-adjusted demand remains robust. In a separate report from the Federal Reserve, we learned industrial production activity hit record levels in April, jumping 1.1% from March levels (which was already very strong). Keep in mind that the Federal Reserve is actively using monetary policy tools to slow the economy in its effort to cool inflation. And so, stronger-than-expected economic data may be considered bad news if it’s inflationary. It’s a complex situation that could force the central bank to get even more aggressive. But it’s also very important to remember that the Fed isn’t aiming to push the economy all the way into recession, which would be a much higher risk if the economy weren’t supported by the massive tailwinds we discussed above. [image] Andrew Graham Editor, Silver Ridge Market Report P.S. There's just no way to sugarcoat it…Inflation is raging out of control! Gas prices are skyrocketing. (Long lines at the gas station next?) Thousands are going on "forced diets" due to the escalating price of all foods, from soup to nuts. Even used car prices are up 41% over the last few months. And stocks are tanking everywhere. [Except in this one sector.](=) [Click here to discover the exciting details about how you could invest in one of the potentially biggest bull markets of all time.]() 316 Media and Silver Ridge Market Report, is not giving individualized financial advice. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. 316 Media or Silver Ridge Market Report is not giving financial, investment, or stock advice. Our content is designed for generalized informational purposes only. If you have specific questions about investments or stocks you should consult a financial advisor. Articles, News, Or Other published materials are not always the views of 316 Media and/or Silver Ridge Market Report. If you feel you are receiving these emails in error please email Support@SilverRidgePro.com or click the unsubscribe button below. [Unsubscribe]( Silver Ridge Media 30 N Gould St, Ste R Ste R Sheridan, Wyoming 82801 United States