A Middle East Marshall Plan?

Human stories from a world in conflict. No Images? [Click here]( Feb. 22, 2019 Editor’s note: We are trying some new features this week in our Global Security newsletter and would like to know what you think. Please [take our survey](. Introducing Critical State (Beta), a partnership between The World and Inkstick Media. If you read just one thing ... ...make it this: House Democrats [announced]( an investigation this week into a plan reportedly still in the works at the White House, which would see the US export sensitive nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia in contravention of laws meant to prevent nuclear proliferation. The documents the House Oversight Committee [released]( from their initial inquiry into the so-called Middle East Marshall Plan are both a time capsule of the Trump administration’s early policy process and a reflection of the White House’s thinking about the nuclear future of the Middle East. In them, prominent Bush-era securocrats, including [Fran Townsend]( and [Jack Keane](, pitch the plan explicitly as President Donald Trump’s response to the eventuality of a nuclear-armed Iran and hopes among Arab states to “possess an equivalent capability.” ## ... if you read more than one thing Mr. Brexiteer Hornblower Spanish and British naval ships [confronted]( one another off Gibraltar on Sunday after the Spanish warship Tornado ordered three commercial ships — believed to be in British waters — to leave Spanish territorial waters, seeming to claim sovereignty over the UK’s most valuable piece of ocean real estate. No shots were fired unless you count the Gibraltar government’s [statement](, which called the incursion “nonsensical,” “cavalier” and — in a solid [literary]( burn — ”quixotic.” - The incident takes place in the run-up to both Britain’s impending exit from the European Union and a general election in Spain. Brexit has made Gibraltar’s status especially contentious, with Spain [refusing]( to do a deal allowing post-Brexit Britons free access to continental Europe unless the territory is formally labeled a “colony.” - Along with some very real [wars](, Gibraltar has been a source of high military hijinks between Spain and the UK over the years, including a 2002 incident in which Royal Marines tried to do a beach-storming exercise at Gibraltar and [missed](. As Lord West, the First Sea Lord at the time, recounted: "They charged up the beach in the normal way, being Royal Marines — they're frightfully good soldiers of course, and jolly good at this sort of thing — and confronted a Spanish fisherman who sort of pointed out, 'I think you're on the wrong beach.’" ## USAID swipes right on the Pentagon Fresh off last week’s announcement that the World Food Program will [outsource]( much of its data management to defense contractor, Palantir, more news this week of aid agencies looking at the Pentagon and saying, “Yes, that’s what we aspire to.” The US Agency for International Development (USAID) [released]( a series of reports meditating on USAID’s struggles to conduct aid operations in conflict zones. The reports suggest that to overcome security concerns, USAID personnel should train and then deploy with American special operations forces to “[execute] a mix of offensive, defensive, and stability operations in extremis conditions.” - The proposal comes in response to bureaucratic and operational concerns within USAID that the agency is being sidelined in the US foreign policy apparatus. With more development funding responsibility being [shifted]( to the Overseas Private Investment Corporation, there seems to be a push in USAID to find new competencies. As one USAID official said in the report, “We have to be involved in national security or USAID will not be relevant.” - The report sparked sharp criticism from members of the humanitarian aid community, who argued that the proposal endangers aid workers around the world by [blurring the lines]( between aid and military action. If armed actors can’t differentiate between aid workers involved in “offensive operations” and those just trying to feed civilians, the argument goes, they will likely ban aid workers altogether. ## Midnight Oil This week’s Midnight Oil guest is John Carl Baker, nuclear field coordinator and senior program officer at [Ploughshares Fund](, a global peace and security foundation. Baker develops the Fund’s activism strategy, manages grant programs and [publishes widely]( on issues related to North Korea’s nuclear program. What is the hardest problem you work on? The hardest problem I spend my time trying to solve is how to bring about an agreement that limits the North Korean nuclear weapons program. There is a historic diplomatic opening on the peninsula right now, with a South Korean president who is fully committed to ending the Korean War and forging better relations with the North. Fantastic, right? But that diplomatic track is bound up with another one involving the US — the “denuclearization” track — which is where things get particularly complicated. The Trump administration is erratic and amateurish, the US and DPRK share a deep, mutual distrust, congressional Democrats are understandably skeptical of Trump’s engagement, and news reports about North Korea can be inflammatory or even misleading. It’s an extremely thorny problem. But the opportunity for freezing the North’s program where it stands — and potentially even rolling it back — is quite real. We would be foolish to throw away this chance at a safer world simply because the stars aren’t perfectly aligned. They never will be! How do you go about trying to solve this problem? At the Ploughshares Fund, we try to solve this problem by investing in organizations who can impact US policy toward North Korea. For instance, we fund advocacy groups like Korean Americans in Action to show skeptical legislators that a diplomatic agreement has support among their constituents, some of whom are directly impacted by military tensions. We fund experts and analysts to develop alternative policies for the United States and demonstrate that a changed relationship with North Korea will be essential for any formal agreement. Our partners are active in the public sphere, adding context to news stories and offering constructive commentary on the latest diplomatic developments. They help push back against unhelpful actions by the Trump administration and North Korea alike. It has been an uphill battle no doubt, but slowly, but surely, I think we are making a difference. There are indications that the administration is backing down from its previous maximalism, which is an extremely positive development. I’m cautiously optimistic. Editor’s note: Ploughshares Fund supports Inkstick Media. Show me the receipts Lebanon: The lynchpin in Syria’s conflict Tyler Newman [chronicled]( the effect of the Syrian civil war on Lebanese politics. The war has left nearly 1.5 million Syrian refugees living in Lebanon, a situation that has created economic strain and political deadlock. The UN estimated that the refugee crisis has cost Lebanon $18.15 billion since 2015. Yet there are signs that the crisis is generating a sea change in Lebanese politics, with voting patterns moving away from the strict sectarianism that has long formed the basis of Lebanon’s grand political bargain. “The [added economic] pressure of refugees has created a shared social anxiety” in Lebanon, said Dr. Akram Khater, director of the Center for Lebanese Diaspora Studies at the University of North Carolina. Learn more >]( President's Day Sale: Half off the Constitution Nancy Parrish used President’s Day to [reflect]( on the accrual of war-making power in the executive branch since the dawn of the Cold War. The presidency, she argued, has run roughshod over the Constitution’s intended separation of war powers. Congress, however, is clawing its way back. Recent action to force an end to American support for Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen marks a major milestone in Congressional assertiveness on security issues. There is also growing momentum behind an effort to repeal the Authorization for the Use of Military Force, the one-page law that has served as a blank check for presidential military action since 9/11. [Learn more >]( [A Pershing II battlefield support missile is fired through the middle of Henri Matisse's "Dance (I)."] Classics Jamie Withorne [had some fun]( with classic paintings, adding modern weapons systems to the background of works by Matisse and Van Gogh. The project, she wrote, “asks viewers: Is it really that strange to value both art and national security technology? Is it really that strange for these two seemingly distant concepts to cohabitate a singular canvas or space?” [Learn more >]( Well played Seva Gunitsky, a University of Toronto political scientist, brought one of the most famous examples of selection bias in security studies back into vogue this week with an [excellent tweet](. The reference is from World War II when members of America’s Statistical Research Group studied the patterns of bullet holes in Allied aircrafts returning from combat missions to determine where the planes should be most armored. Members of the group wanted to put the armor on the areas of the plane with the most holes until mathematician Abraham Wald [pointed out]( that all their data was from planes that survived their missions. Definitionally, Wald argued, all the hits they observed were survivable. They should instead be concerned about the areas where the surviving aircraft weren’t hit — that’s where the planes that were being shot down were taking crucial damage. ## Everyone who studies conflict basically knows that “jihadi wives” is a dumb thing to call women who join ISIS, but Seamus Hughes, deputy director of George Washington University’s Program on Extremism, [found a way]( to really hammer the point home. ## If you’ve ever worked as a staffer to someone the press takes pictures of, you’ve likely had the experience of getting caught in the background of a photo you’re not supposed to be in. It’s unlikely that you’ve been as exquisitely aware of it as the poor Warren staffer in [this photo]( though. Chin up, buddy. Send us your best “oh no, how did I get in this photo?” photos: info@inkstickmedia.com. Thanks for reading. [Please let us know what you think]( of this new approach to the Global Security newsletter. 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