Giant bird early warning system

Giant bird early warning system Received this from a friend? [SUBSCRIBE]( CRITICAL STATE Your weekly foreign policy fix. [The World]( [INKSTICK]( If you read just one thing… ...read about the war no one writes about. If you haven’t heard about America’s drone war lately, it turns out that’s on purpose. Drone strikes, a method of remote counterterrorism that began under the Bush administration and grew under President Barack Obama, are still going strong under President Donald Trump. In Somalia, for example, the US has launched 40 drone bombings just in 2020 — one fewer than all the drone bombings the US perpetrated in the country from 2007 to 2016. Yet, as Kelsey Atherton [writes](, the American public knows less about the drone strikes being carried out in its name than it did four years ago. The Obama administration brought a modicum of transparency to the drone program, but it did so only through voluntary disclosures, leaving plenty of space for subsequent administrations to ignore the precedent and return to running a shadow war, free from public oversight. The Trump administration has done just that, rolling back reporting standards and reinterpreting rules in order to create what amount to secret free-fire zones in places like Yemen and Somalia. What is the cost of these policies to civilians? We don’t know — Pentagon estimates of civilian casualties from drone strikes are often 20 to 50 times less than credible independent estimates. Arms control of the not-so-distant past As pessimism sets in about the future of the New START treaty — the agreement between the US and Russia that sets limits on both countries’ nuclear arsenals and is due to expire next February — it’s worth recalling that the US was a leader in dismantling nuclear weapons not that long ago. The Nuclear Threat Initiative put together a [fact sheet]( about the history of US nuclear disarmament, and the numbers are impressive. Or they were, until recently. Between 1994 and 2017, the US dismantled nearly 11,000 of its own nuclear weapons, to say nothing of the support it provided for Russia to reduce its arsenal, including buying over 500 tons of highly-enriched uranium that could easily be used in bombs and rendering it too stable to blow anything up. The pace of dismantlement has slowed over the years, however, as the government has moved money from dismantlement to nuclear modernization. Today, there is a backlog of some 2,800 nuclear weapons that are set to be dismantled. NTI’s fact sheet includes an augmented reality simulator that lets you dismantle a bomb by hand. Be aware, though: The program doesn’t augment reality enough to make you look like George Clooney or Nicole Kidman. [FORWARD TO A FRIEND]( Follow the money The Pentagon is famously [incapable]( of passing an audit — the Defense Department ducked auditing requirements for years because it knew it couldn’t pass, and then, when Congress finally demanded that it pony up and check its books, it promptly failed two years running. But what do books that messy look like in practice? Well, like [this](, as documented in a Twitter thread from defense journalist Steve Trimble. Trimble tried to sort out how much public money was spent to buy two hypersonic missile demonstrators — proofs of concept that, contractors hope, will convince the Pentagon to spend a whole bunch more public money on hypersonic missiles. The publicly disclosed contracts for the demonstrators put the maximum cost the Pentagon is willing to pay at about $420 million for the whole program. As Trimble noticed, however, that $420 million doesn’t include paying for the scramjets — the things that make the missiles go so fast and are the whole point of the program! Those are costing the public another $430 million or so, doubling the missiles’ cost. [FORWARD TO A FRIEND]( [ ] DEEP DIVE Zombie Huntington: Part II In the last edition of Deep Dive, we started digging into recent reevaluations of Samuel Huntington’s legacy by learning how poorly his best regarded work — which created the framework on which post-World War II US civil-military relations were built — have held up in the modern era. This week, we’ll look instead at his most derided work, that somehow still refuses to leave the zeitgeist. “The Clash of Civilizations,” a theory Huntington outlined in a 1993 Foreign Affairs article and then expanded in a 1996 book, holds that post-Cold War conflict will take place along ethnic, cultural and religious fault lines between monolithic civilizations — Western civilizations versus Islamic civilization, Hindu civilization versus Sinic civilization, etcetera. Many social scientists, both when Clash first appeared and since, have pointed out how preposterous it is. For one thing, monolithic civilizations don’t exist. Huntington drew a very scientific-seeming [map]( of world civilizations for his book, but looking at it for too long will make your eyes cross. Is there really a single African civilization that runs from Sierra Leone to Madagascar? Is India, home to the third-most Muslims of any country in the world, definitively in a single Hindu civilization and not at all part of an Islamic civilization? Not in any analytically meaningful way. When they’re not dressed up in the finery of social science, the word we usually use for dramatic generalizations about people based on ethnicity is “racism” — and there’s no good reason not to apply it here. For another, even if you accept the idea of civilizations, Huntington’s prediction of an era dominated by inter-civilizational conflict has not come true. A number of studies (most recently [this one]() show that, since the Cold War, there has been about as much conflict within putative civilizations as between them — a strong indication that Clash actually can’t explain very much about modern conflict. Despite this, there are people who have made an effort to keep Huntington’s work from being left in the dustbin of social science history. Many university professors [assign]( Clash, even if just to explain how wrong it is, and some policymakers [still]( use it to justify hawkish positions. A recent [article]( in the journal Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, by Stephane Baele, Gregorio Bettiza, Katharine Boyd, and Travis Coan highlights another group that has worked to keep the Clash thesis alive: ISIS. The idea of conflict between a single Islamic civilization and a single Western civilization is a key tenet of ISIS thinking. In its official publications, ISIS frequently engages in what Bettiza, in an earlier study, called “civilizational talk” — the framing of world politics as happening fundamentally between civilizations (as opposed to between countries or people). In an issue of its magazine Dabiq, ISIS described its conflict against the West as “the clash of encampments — civilizations — that many saw coming.” The civilizational frame helps ISIS claim that it represents all Muslims in an irreversible war against an implacable enemy, which is propaganda gold for a transnational armed actor. In order for that claim to make sense, however, ISIS has to convince its readers that the West, its erstwhile enemy, actually exists as a single civilization. That process is what Baele et al. track in their study, using linguistic network analysis and other quantitative tools to measure how ISIS makes the case for a monolithic West in its English-language propaganda. They find that the concept of the West is central to ISIS propaganda. ISIS refers to “the West” or “Western” much more frequently than it refers to any particular country commonly thought of as being in the West, and goes to great lengths to explain what makes the West unique — widespread sinning, and massive overt and covert aggression against Muslims. By force of repetition, ISIS creates the idea of a single Western enemy, irrevocably corrupted and bent on the destruction of a single Islamic civilization. Civilizational clash is an old idea at this point, but ISIS’ focus on creating a monolithic West is an innovation among major transnational violent Islamist organizations. Osama bin Laden, Baele et al. point out, never referred to “the West” in his public pronouncements. It is no doubt a bitter irony for Huntington that, while most of his colleagues have left his most famous idea behind, it has been taken up with such gusto by people claiming to represent a group he feared greatly: an Islamic civilization in unrelenting conflict with a Western civilization. [LEARN MORE]( [FORWARD TO A FRIEND]( [• • •] SHOW US THE RECEIPTS Jason Strother [recounted]( how South Korea’s LGBTQ community has borne the brunt of degraded privacy protections stemming from COVID-19 contact tracing. Aggressive contact tracing — determining who a COVID-19 patient had contact with to stop the spread of the virus — has been a key part of South Korea’s much lauded COVID-19 response, but it has created some unforeseen consequences. Following a government alert that one patient had been in a Seoul nightclub district, conservative media alleged that the resulting infection cluster arose from a gay bar, leading to a homophobic backlash. Some advocates fear that LGBTQ Koreans will avoid getting tested for the virus for fear that contact tracing will out them or endanger their community. Sarah Streyder[spoke](to the wife of a US army reservist, who Streyder called Alice for privacy reasons, about how military families are dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic. Alice’s wife recently returned from a deployment in Iraq only to be called up once again to participate in COVID-19 response, but has been kept waiting away from her family for almost two months because no decision has been made about what her unit will actually do to fight the pandemic. The lack of time between deployments combined with the lack of a mission in the face of an unprecedented crisis has hurt morale, leaving Alice’s wife contemplating leaving the military for the first time in a 17-year career. Halima Gikandi [reported]( on the arrest of Rwandan genocide fugitive Félicien Kabuga, who was arrested two weekends ago in Paris. Kabuga is wanted for his alleged leading role in the Rwandan genocide of 1994, including allegations that he funded the genocide, provided arms to militias and ran the radio station that egged on and directed much of the violence. Kabuga will now be transferred to either The Hague or Arusha, Tanzania, where he will likely be put on trial under the authority of the United Nations International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals. [FORWARD TO A FRIEND]( [ ] WELL PLAYED Good news: [“Things That Go Boom”]( is back! The podcast, from Inkstick editor (and Critical State’s own) Laicie Heeley, has started its third season, which will explore the threats that America’s security apparatus is least prepared to face. You shouldn’t need convincing to listen, but in case you do, check out the montage in the [first episode]( of security professionals falling directly on their faces while trying to define “great power competition.” Comedy gold. Of COVID-19’s many second-order effects, few are as surreal and hilarious as the way it’s brought new meaning to the term [“baptism by fire.”]( [This]( is the kind of headline you see right before your town is terrorized by a 752-ton giant bird. When trying to look like a badass goes [wrong](. There are a lot of potential dangers if the US actually [resumes]( nuclear weapons testing, but [this]( meme gives you a good sense of the big one. [FORWARD TO A FRIEND]( Follow The World: [fb]( [tw]( [ig]( [www]( [DONATE TO THE WORLD]( Follow Inkstick: [fb]( [tw]( [ig]( [www]( [DONATE TO INKSTICK]( Critical State is written by Sam Ratner and is a collaboration between The World and Inkstick Media. The World is a weekday public radio show and podcast on global issues, news and insights from PRX, BBC, and WGBH. With an online magazine and podcast featuring a diversity of expert voices, Inkstick Media is “foreign policy for the rest of us.” Critical State is made possible in part by the Carnegie Corporation of New York. [Preferences]( | [Web Version]( [Unsubscribe](