🚗Off To The Windy City We Go!

[] [The daily rundown of everything happening at Option Pit.]( [.]( MARK-et Open Hey OP Crew, Everyone here at Option Pit is gearing up for our week in Chicago. The brisket down here in Texas is the best of the best … But I can’t wait for some good old fashioned Portillo’s. What I’m excited about the most, of course, is the live trading. And even if you can’t make it to the Windy City this week, you can still be a part of that experience. On our Conference Livestream, you’ll be able to see all of our guest speakers and all of the trade we put out. And, of course, you’ll still be able to profit from the comfort of your own home. [Secure your seat today.]( Let’s Go! [ Pit Report: Let’s Target The Vol Target Corp (Ticker: TGT) was known for splashing ads and clever marketing, but got bogged down by some bad press and slumping sales over the last year. [As Griff pointed out on Friday](, they face stiff competition … but as a trade it might not be too bad. TGT pays a $1.00 dividend per quarter, so a combination strategy might work for investors looking to up their yield. The volatility isn’t in a too hot or too cold area. [ [Let’s see what to do with it.]( - AG Power Income: Debt Ceiling Crisis Moved Up April’s tax receipts came in lower than expected … this moves the deadline closer and it could hit before the summer. The debt ceiling crisis will have liquidity implications for markets that you need to know about. The bottom line is this: US tax receipts are down YoY plus the US budget deficit is now at 8% of GDP. For the fiscal year, that amounts to $2.2 trillion that will need to be printed just to fill the gap. [Today, we’ll dive into what this means for markets before and after the debt ceiling is resolved.]( - Griff Power Moves: It’s a Mad, Mad World It was a wild week of politics in DC and on Wall Street. The debt ceiling debate continues to roil markets. Asset prices are going in many different directions. Regional banks are down … with the clock ticking on some. Crypto is up, but under DC stress. Gold (Ticker: GLD) is flat … despite every indication it should be up. The President officially announced that he will run again. Biden wants voters to let him “finish the job,” despite the prospect of him being the oldest person ever elected US president and ongoing questions about his mental acuity. A recent NBC poll found that 70% of Americans, including 51% of Democrats, do not believe that the President should run again. There will be some reluctant support coming … but it will come. BTW, if you’re thinking of buying an electric vehicle, don’t. Lease instead. The Inflation Reduction Act provides a $7,500 EV tax credit. But there is a loophole. More on that inside. [Click here for my full report: “Up, Down, and Sideways”]( - Frank AG's Views: Vol Man’s Weekly Analysis From the desk of Option Pit Director of Education Andrew Giovinazzi That’s right, darn near a vol collapse for the week! New VIX lows. [ Vol Man is here again with your weekly dose of all things VIX. For most of the month SPX went nowhere, with less than 1% moves per day for 25 days. That’s not a record, but it’s close. Then we had the 2 most volatile days back to back where SPX was down over 1% then rallied up 2% a day later. That whole exercise left us with a VIX curve in steep contango … which is odd. [ Closing VIX curve, April 28 We have the rate news on Wednesday, and with the slope so steep in the near term the market is pretty convinced the Fed will raise .25 and move along. Since the Fed started raising a year ago, this is the steepest curve, and lowest vol expectation, to date on the activity. [ VIX 5-day chart with 10-minute candles. “Trade is starting to move on to reflect higher interest rates into the foreseeable future.” Once the market expects something– like higher rates, for example – traders price it in. The fact that most big tech did not put out abysmal earnings lifted the Invesco QQQ Trust to year highs. Twenty-day realized vol stands at 12.40% for SPX. The two busy days pushed up the vol quite a bit from last week. That puts much lower VIX levels, even 12%-13%, into the realm of statistically probable sooner rather than later. Don’t forget, even with the higher realized vol this week, VIX is closing lows of the year, weekend adjusted. Mark and I continue to like VIX puts and own longer term VIX puts in the [Trading Desk](. Don't be surprised with a 14 handle in VIX post Big Tech Earnings and Fed rate report by May 5th. I think the VIX Jun21 puts from 19-16 are crazy cheap here. - Vol Man OPTION PIT GLOSSARY [( There are plenty of terms in the trading world that need defining. The [Option Pit Glossary]( is here to help. Today's phrase is: Near the money: An option is considered near the money if the underlying share price is close to the option strike price. 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