🏆 What Should You Do With Austin Ekeler?

[Footballguys Email Updates](=) [Go PRO]() | [View Online](=) [Unsubscribe]( | [Sign Up]() [Footballguys.com](=)Daily Email Update • Vol. 25, #13 • Apr. 3rd 2023 --------------------------------------------------------------- Thanks To Our Sponsor, [Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio]( Howdy {NAME}, Good Tuesday to you. Before we get to Austin Ekeler, can I ask a favor one last time with our survey? One that also includes a chance to win a free 2023 Footballguys Hall of Fame subscription? We'd love your help if you can spare a couple of minutes to share your thoughts on our survey with what you're looking for in season-long fantasy football contests. Please [check it out HERE](. There are no wrong answers. I'm just looking for your insight. At the end of the survey, we also are giving folks a chance to be part of our Footballguys Contest Advisory Team. Plus a chance to enter for the free subscription. Your opinions matter to me so thanks for sharing. Let's Go. J PS. If you've read Footballguys for any time at all, you know my buddy Matt Waldman. He's a foundational part of the Footballguys Staff and he produces an incredible resource every year called the [Rookie Scouting Portfolio](). If you're looking to remain the sharpest GM in your league, this is for you. It's the most in-depth and detailed look at the offensive rookies you'll find anywhere. It's been must-read material for me for years and I couldn't recommend it more highly. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Go Deep With Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio]( Sponsored by [Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio]( [GO DEEP]( Saints rookie Chris Olave went deep on the entire league last year – earning 72 catches for 1,042 yards in 15 games. [The Rookie Scouting Portfolio]( has been helping fantasy managers go deep with rookies since 2006. 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[] --------------------------------------------------------------- [Dynasty Dive: Should you trade away Austin Ekeler?]() by Dan Hindery Exclusive to Footballguys.com --------------------------------------------------------------- [Austin Ekeler](=) has been one of the most valuable players in all of fantasy football over the past two seasons. He is currently being drafted as the RB7 (middle of the third round) in dynasty startup drafts. This article will explore whether he is undervalued or overvalued and highlight an under-the-radar risk factor that is not fully priced into his dynasty value. How many years left? Ekeler turns 28 years old in May and enters his seventh NFL season. While a fall-off does not feel imminent, it rarely does. As Adam Harstad of Footballguys has often pointed out, fantasy production for a player [rarely tapers off slowly](=). Instead, a player is humming along in his career and then suddenly suffers a drastic reduction in production. Sometimes this is due to injury. Just as often, a player simply reaches the tipping point where he is not quite good enough to justify his previous role and sees a massive drop in opportunity (whether it be carries or targets) once he hits that tipping point. For 28-year-old running backs, Harstad found we should expect [2.17 years remaining]() of fantasy relevancy. Ekeler could be the rare running back who does not fall off a cliff sometime during his eighth or ninth NFL season. His receiving ability potentially gives him more of a chance to stick around as a productive contributor. However, it is generally bad practice to base your dynasty strategy upon hoping a player will be an outlier to a strong trend. At this point, we should be valuing Ekeler as if he has just two more prime seasons left. The primary issue for Ekeler is that even if he defies the general trend of running backs falling off a cliff as they approach 30 years old and at least remains a productive contributor for a few seasons, he could still fall drastically from the ranks of impact fantasy running backs if he cedes a handful of high-value touches per game. Ekeler has been the rare back who is a mismatch as a receiver out of the backfield but also handles goal-line work. Ekeler has scored 38 touchdowns over the last two seasons. It is reasonable to assume the Chargers will want to start scaling back Ekeler’s touches sometime in the next year or two. Adding a bigger back to take over short-yardage and red-zone carries makes a lot of sense. It should not be a surprise if Ekeler scores half as many touchdowns over the next two seasons as he did the previous two. Beyond the next two seasons, it becomes highly improbable that Ekeler will still be his team’s top red zone back. --------------------------------------------------------------- FOOTBALLGUYS PICKS DOMINATE YOUR FRIENDS WITH A FOOTBALLGUYS PREMIUM SUBSCRIPTION - Consistently winning at Fantasy Football is hard. And losing sucks. We have the secret weapon you need in a Footballguys Premium Subscription. We do the work so you can do the winning. And as always, we have a 30-day Moneyback Guarantee so there's zero risk. [Join Now](=) --------------------------------------------------------------- LOOKING FOR EVEN MORE FANTASY FOOTBALL CONTENT? - Matthew Berry's RotoPass bundles together premium subscriptions from Footballguys, RotoWire, RotoViz, DLF, and more at a steep discount. [Sign Up Now](=) --------------------------------------------------------------- FOOTBALLGUYS GEAR IS HERE! - We're proud of what we put together here for you and we're thankful and appreciative when our Footballguys Family represents. And if you're reading this, it's a safe bet to assume you're dominating your league. Now you can look the part too. [Shop Now]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Holdout Risk The dynasty trade market has not fully accounted for holdout risk when it comes to valuing [Austin Ekeler](=). There is a major misalignment between the Chargers and Ekeler when it comes to incentives. From the Chargers' perspective, the status quo is ideal. The team has to be aware of age-related trends at the running back position and wary of paying Ekeler big money with guarantees out into future seasons. The team already has Ekeler under contract for his age-28 season at just $6.25M. Los Angeles also has the option of franchise tagging Ekeler for his age-29 season for something in the neighborhood of $10M. Ekeler would not hit the open market until his Age 30 season in 2025, at which point the Chargers will have had his services for eight years already. Aside from keeping Ekeler happy, there is absolutely no reason for the Chargers to want to offer him a market-rate extension right now. The team is already positioned to have Ekeler’s services for the tail end of his prime at relatively bargain rates. From Ekeler’s perspective, he should know that his odds of getting a lucrative contract decrease exponentially as time passes. Running backs are not getting paid in general in today’s NFL. Good luck to any back trying to get big money as a 30-year-old. Ekeler seems very intelligent, and he undoubtedly knows that being a good employee and just playing out the next two years under his current contract and then a franchise tag is bad business. He has to understand that his only leverage is threatening to hold out. We have evidence that he is thinking along these lines due to the fact that he has demanded a trade. It is fair to assume that the trade request is tied to a desire to get a big-money extension done right now, with the Chargers unwilling to meet his contract demands. Someone will have to budge here. Either Ekeler will have to accept that he is not getting paid anytime soon and drop his trade requests (which could transform into a holdout). Or the Chargers will have to give Ekeler the big-money extension with plenty of guaranteed money that they have so far denied. If neither side budges, the next logical step is for Ekeler to hold out. Conclusion Ekeler is quickly approaching the tail end of his prime, which makes him a risky dynasty asset to start with. He is going to want to secure one big-money contract before he retires, and his leverage will never be higher than it is now. Do not be shocked if the situation eventually results in Ekeler holding out. The potential for a holdout on top of the risk of an age-related decline in production in the immediate future makes Ekeler a risky dynasty hold this offseason. It is worth exploring trade options if you currently have Ekeler rostered. Ekeler is also overvalued in 2023 dynasty startups and not worth the third-round startup pick it would cost to select him. --------------------------------------------------------------- That'll do it for today, Folks. Thanks for reading and have a great week. We'll see you Friday with the News. Peace, J [Win More At Fantasy Football With A Premium Subscription From Footballguys.com]( Footballguys Rewards - Be A Hero - Share The Love - Get Cool Swag - Share the Footballguys Daily Update -> Earn Rewards Have friends who'd love our newsletter too? Want free stuff? Give them your unique referral link (below) and get an awesome reward when they subscribe and confirm their email. 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