Why Fantasy Football Is So Difficult To Predict...

[Footballguys Email Updates]( [Go PRO]( | [View Online]( [Unsubscribe]( | [Sign Up]() [Footballguys.com](=)Daily Email Update • Vol. 23, #43 • Jun. 3rd[,]( 2021 --------------------------------------------------------------- Thanks To Our Sponsor, [The 2021 Footballguys Players Championship]() Howdy {NAME}, Welcome to Friday. Newsflash: Fantasy Football is difficult to consistently win. Because NFL players are difficult to predict with accuracy. Our Sigmund Bloom dives into this challenge today as he breaks down some players and how they fit within their team. Which is a key part of predicting their individual performance. Plus we've got the AFC East dialed in for you as well as the News and Notes. And maybe the most fun Father's Day Gift outside of a Footballguys Premium Subscription we've ever seen. Let's GO. J --------------------------------------------------------------- [Footballguys Players Championship Early Bird Discount]() Sponsored by [The 2021 Footballguys Players Championship]() [Grab The Early Bird Discount For A $500,000 Grand Prize]( [The 2021 Footballguys Players Championship]() will feature a guaranteed prize pool with a $500,000 grand prize, a $100,000 runner-up prize, and a $3,700,000 total prize pool. All prizes are fully guaranteed. The 2021 FPC contest is capped at 13,200 teams. Don't miss out on the [Early Bird Promo](): - When you register before Wednesday, June 30th, and draft that team by July 15th, you'll receive a free $35 FFPC league credit (max of 3) - Drafts are already underway - $3,700,000 prize pool (Up $600,000 from last year) - Teams are $350 each (or a three-pack of teams for $1,000) < --------------------------------------------------------------- SITE NEWS A. [Win More With A Footballguys Premium Subscription - Early Bird Deal On!]( Our goal is simple. We want to help you win more at Fantasy Football. And the best way we do that is with a Footballguys Premium Subscription. And right now, you can get on board with a discounted price. It's our way of rewarding folks like you who are into Fantasy Football in June. [Get this]( and let's crush this year. And don't forget - this makes a great Father's Day gift for your dad. Or yourself! B. [A Best-Ball Guide to the AFC East](=) The paradox of fantasy football has always been you roster individual players. But those player are a part of a complicated and interdependent team. It's part of why predicting individual performance is so challenging. Which means if you're going to predict the players, you'll do well to have a good understanding of how each player fits into the team situation. Our Sigmund Bloom dives into this idea breaking it down for us. Here, he looks specifically at how players fit with Best Ball drafts but of course, it's relevant to other formats as well. Enjoy. C. [Predicting the AFC East]( We asked the Footballguys Staff how they felt the AFC East would shake out this year for win totals and more. This is what they said. D. [Footballguys Spotlight - New Balance x Miller Lite Shoezie](=) Sometimes, when you see perfection, all you can do is sit back and admire the genius. That's the case with this collaboration between New Balance and Miller Lite as they've teamed up to create a beer koozie made from the New Balance 624 Trainer. More [info here.]() Wow. Please oh please, let this be real. [] INSIDE THIS ISSUE 1. [LAR - WR Cooper Kupp says he's doing well](#1) 2. [KC - QB Patrick Mahomes feeling good](#2) 3. [DAL - QB Dak Prescott limited Thursday](#3) 4. [NE - QB Cam Newton has better understanding](#4) 5. [LAC - Big year for WR Mike Williams?](#5) 6. [NYJ - WR Corey Davis misses practice](#6) 7. [DAL - RB Tony Pollard getting WR reps](#7) 8. [SF - Brandon Aiyuk nursing groin injury](#8) 9. [PHI - RB Kerryon Johnson restructured deal](#9) 10. [DET - No timetable on adding RB Todd Gurley](#10) 11. [SF - Jevon Cottoy to work out](#11) 12. [JAX - WR Pharoh Cooper to Jaguars](#12) 13. [PHI - DeVonta Smith comes to terms](#13) 14. [SF - Niners missing a few receivers](#14) 15. [BAL - Devin Gray signing with Baltimore](#15) 16. [CHI - QB Nick Foles third in the pecking order](#16) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] 1. [LAR - WR Cooper Kupp says he's doing well]( Source: Los Angeles Times - Gary Klein Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Kupp said Wednesday, June 2, that it was a Morel-Lavalle'e lesion -- in which skin and tissue separate from underlying tissue -- in his knee which kept him out of the team's NFC divisional round playoff loss to the Green Bay Packers in January. Kupp added, though, that he has had no issues afterward, and is 'feeling great' as he participates in the team's offseason workouts. [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] Kupp is set for another strong season with the Rams and should become a favorite target of QB Matthew Stafford quickly. He saw his touchdown numbers drop from 10 in 2019 to just three touchdowns in 2020. If he grabs 90-plus passes again, for about 1,000 yards and gets a few more touchdowns (projecting 5-7 sounds about right) Kupp should play up to his current ADP of WR21 (5.05) in 12-team PPR leagues. [Back to Top](#top) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] 2. [KC - QB Patrick Mahomes feeling good](=) Source: ESPN.com - Adam Teicher Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (toe) said he believes he would be able to play now if it was the regular season. [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] Previous reports state that Mahomes has been a full participant in practice. He'd be ready to go if he needed to play a game, and he'll be ready for full participation in training camp. After battling through a toe injury as the Chiefs made another Super Bowl run, it will be nice to see the superstar back at full strength. [Back to Top](#top) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] 3. [DAL - QB Dak Prescott limited Thursday]( Source: The Dallas Morning News - Michael Gehlken Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott (ankle) did not participate in team drills during practice Thursday, June 3, but did take part in 11-on-7 drills. [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] The Cowboys are going to take it easy on Prescott during the offseason. When training camp rolls around, expect Prescott to be a full participant. [Back to Top](#top) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] 4. [NE - QB Cam Newton has better understanding]( Source: NBC Sports Boston - Phil Perry New England Patriots QB Cam Newton understands the offense much better in his second season, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels said Thursday, June 3. 'He came back this year at a much different position,' McDaniels said of Newton. 'He has a different grasp of the offense, a different understanding of the terminology. Now we're working on refining the precision, the details.' [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] Newton was bad last year for the Patriots but he's back this year to prove that he can thrive in this system. He's the starter for now, but rookie first-round pick Mac Jones will push him for that spot when he's ready. Newton is going off the board at QB25 (13.12) in 12-team PPR leagues. [Back to Top](#top) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] 5. [LAC - Big year for WR Mike Williams?]() Source: Los Angeles Daily News - Gilbert Manzano Los Angeles Chargers WR [Mike Williams](=) should have 'nice numbers' this season, according to offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] Williams has always had the talent but he's yet to put it all together in the NFL. Perhaps that happens this season, and working with QB Justin Herbert all offseason should help. Williams is a WR4 with upside for Fantasy GMs in 2021. [Back to Top](#top) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] 6. [NYJ - WR Corey Davis misses practice](=) Source: ESPN.com - Rich Cimini New York Jets WR Corey Davis (shoulder) was on the field during practice Wednesday, June 2, but did not participate in any drills. [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] Davis suffered a minor shoulder injury last week but is said to be okay with rest. The oft-injured former first-round pick has played just one full season in the NFL. Now with his new team, hopefully Davis can get healthy, stay healthy and produce at the expected level. [Back to Top](#top) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] 7. [DAL - RB Tony Pollard getting WR reps](=) Source: NFL.com - Kevin Patra Dallas Cowboys RB Tony Pollard has been getting reps at wide receiver during the team's OTAs, head coach Mike McCarhy said Thursday, June 3. [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] Pollard can play both positions although he's listed as a running back. He has had 60 targets over the last two years playing as a reserve behind Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys are absolutely stacked at the wide receiver position, so we'll see Pollard try to mix into the backfield and perhaps in the slot sometimes. [Back to Top](#top) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] 8. [SF - Brandon Aiyuk nursing groin injury](=) Source: The Athletic - Matt Barrows San Francisco 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk (groin) missed practice with a mild groin strain Wednesday, June 2. [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] Aiyuk showed off his first-round skill set last year as a rookie. His run-after-the-catch ability is among the best in the league, and he's an exciting player for the 49ers offense. The team will be careful with him as he deals with this groin injury. Aiyuk has a current ADP of WR24 (5.10) in 12-team PPR leagues. [Back to Top](#top) --------------------------------------------------------------- FOOTBALLGUYS PICKS EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT ON 2021 FOOTBALLGUYS SUBSCRIPTIONS - For a limited time, you can still lock in 2021 at our Early Bird Loyalty Discount Rate. With a Footballguys Subscription, you'll make winning decisions, save time, and crush your competition. [Sign Up Now]( --------------------------------------------------------------- LOOKING FOR EVEN MORE FANTASY FOOTBALL CONTENT? - Matthew Berry's RotoPass bundles together premium subscriptions from Footballguys, RotoWire, RotoViz, ESPN+, and more. [Sign Up Now](=) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] 9. [PHI - RB Kerryon Johnson restructured deal]() Source: NBC Sports Philadelphia - Dave Zangaro Philadelphia Eagles RB Kerryon Johnson agreed to a restructured contract that will pay him the veteran minimum of $920,000 with a matching cap hit in 2021, according to a league source. [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] Johnson is getting a second chance in the league to prove himself. The 43rd overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft by the Lions, Johnson struggled to stay healthy and impress. The Lions waived him this offseason and the Eagles scooped him up. He'll compete with Jordan Howard, Boston Scott, and rookie Kenneth Gainwell for snaps behind Miles Sanders. [Back to Top](#top) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] 10. [DET - No timetable on adding RB Todd Gurley]() Source: Around The NFL Free agent RB Todd Gurley (Falcons) remains of interest to the Detroit Lions after visiting with the team May 27, but head coach Dan Campbell said Thursday, June 3, that there's no deadline to sign him. 'But I would say this: Just because we have interest in him, that does not affect our feeling and our thoughts on both (RBs D'Andre) Swift and Jamaal (Williams),' Campbell said. [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] The Lions are just updating their emergency list with this interest in Gurley. He's not the same back he used to be but could give some team veteran depth. The Lions have Swift as their top back and Williams is capable of playing on three downs and getting a large role if called upon. There's not many touches there for Gurley if everybody's healthy in the Lions backfield. [Back to Top](#top) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] 11. [SF - Jevon Cottoy to work out]() Source: NFL Network - Tom Pelissero Free-agent WR/TE Jevon Cottoy (CFL) is scheduled to work out for the San Francisco 49ers next week, according to a source. [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] Cottoy is a big-bodied target who can make difficult grabs. He's show 'my ball' mentality and body control near the sidelines during his time in the CFL. Cottoy has a large wingspan and can gather in passes that are just a bit off the mark. He's not overly fast, but at the tight end position he could create mismatches. We'll see if he can impress the 49ers enough to earn a spot for training camp. [Back to Top](#top) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] 12. [JAX - WR Pharoh Cooper to Jaguars]( Source: Jaguars.com Free-agent WR Pharoh Cooper (Panthers) agreed to an undisclosed deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars Thursday, June 3. WR Terry Godwin (undisclosed) was placed on the Reserve/Injured list. [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] Cooper earned All-Pro and Pro Bowl honors back in 2017 when he was with the Rams. He's mainly a special teams player who can stand out as a return man. Last year with the Panthers, Cooper only caught five passes for 73 yards. He'll work as a return man/special teams player for the Jaguars. [Back to Top](#top) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] 13. [PHI - DeVonta Smith comes to terms]() Source: NFL Network - Tom Pelissero Philadelphia Eagles WR DeVonta Smith on Thursday, June 3, agreed to terms on his rookie contract, according to a league source. Financial details weren't immediately available. [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] Smith's game is all about speed, and he's drawn some comparisons to former Colts great Marvin Harrison because of his playmaking ability. During his college career at Alabama, Smith split time between playing out wide and playing the slot. Smith can take the top off the defense and he tracks the ball well downfield. We'll see what kind of progress QB Jalen Hurts makes as a passer, and that question mark does make it difficult to forecast Smith's numbers. He's got a current ADP of WR55 (12.01) in 12-team PPR leagues. [Back to Top](#top) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] 14. [SF - Niners missing a few receivers](=) Source: The Athletic - Matt Barrows San Francisco 49ers WR Jalen Hurd (knee), WR Travis Benjamin (calf) and WR Richie James (hamstring) did not practice Wednesday, June 2, but they are expected to be ready for the start of training camp. [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] All of the receivers listed have battled with injuries during their pro careers. The 49ers have a cramped wide receivers room, so there's a chance that only one of these guys makes the 53-man roster. They need to get healthy ASAP and win a job. [Back to Top](#top) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] 15. [BAL - Devin Gray signing with Baltimore](=) Source: NFL Network - Ian Rapoport Free-agent WR Devin Gray (Falcons) is signing a one-year contract Thursday, June 3, with the Baltimore Ravens, according to a source. [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] Gray was undrafted out of Cincinnati back in 2018. He's made some tough catches in the preseason for the Falcons, and now tries to make the Ravens as a reserve player after a stint in The Spring League. Gray is a long shot to make the 53-man roster. [Back to Top](#top) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] 16. [CHI - QB Nick Foles third in the pecking order]( Source: ESPN.com - Jeff Dickerson Chicago Bears QB Nick Foles will be the No. 3 quarterback behind QB Andy Dalton and QB Justin Fields, according to head coach Matt Nagy. [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] No surprise here. Fields was the 2021 first-round pick and the Bears are hoping he can be the franchise quarterback they've been looking for. He will compete with Dalton, who the team brought in via free agency, to be the starter this season. Foles is there to hold a clipboard and has a cap hit of $10.6 million...with $7.6 million in dead money. [Back to Top](#top) --------------------------------------------------------------- That'll do it for today, Folks. Thanks for reading and thanks for being part of the Footballguys Family. Be thinking about what you're going to get your Dad (or yourself!) for Father's Day and I hope you'll think about a Footballguys Premium Subscription. Have a great day and we'll see you tomorrow with the Update. Peace, J [Get More At Footballguys.com]( [Joe Bryant - Guide - Footballguys.com]() Thank you for subscribing to our Footballguys Daily Update Email! 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