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Hi Folks,
First thing. Join us tonight on Twitter for the #AskFBG TwitterThon. From 5 PM ET to 11 PM ET we'll have some of the Footballguys Staff answering your questions.
All you need to do is tweet your question on Twitter and include the #AskFBG hashtag at the end. That'll feed it to us and we'll try to knock out as many as we can. It'll be fun. I'll be around, as will our David Dodds and other Footballguys Staffers. Please join us.
Second thing. Easily, the question I'm most asked right now is "What Do I Do About Ezekiel Elliott?". I get it. It's asked a lot because it's a difficult question. With each passing day, I get a bit more worried about Elliott's availability.
Our Sigmund Bloom has an [excellent article here]( from this morning. I've pasted it below. If you'd like to keep seeing material like this all season long, please sign up for our [Season Long Pro Subscription](. It's the edge you need to crush your league.
WHAT TO DO ABOUT EZEKIEL ELLIOTT IN DRAFTS
How to approach Ezekiel Elliott in drafts with holdout uncertainty surrounding him
By Sigmund Bloom, Footballguys.com
With each passing day, his value will drop and Pollardâs will rise. We're getting close to a point where Elliott playing Week 1 becomes unlikely, and at that point, as many as six weeks out becomes a lot more likely than before we hit that threshold. Elliott is worth a second-round pick even if we factor in six missed games [as Mike Florio speculated]() and thereâs still a non-zero chance Elliott plays Week 1, or shows after Week 1. Week 2 coming and going without Elliott showing up would be more alarming, but a âworst-case scenarioâ here still likely results in half a season from Elliott and one that would feature the heaviest usage of his career in maybe the best overall surroundings.
Itâs pure guesswork, but this still feels like a situation to err on the side of taking Elliott, including in the first round, accompanied with a slight reach for Pollard, or otherwise building a running back group in your draft with a #3 youâd feel comfortable starting early in the season.
Other backs/plans that fit a Zeke build:
Take two in between the 2nd-4th. This gives the potential for the killer feature back flex, and the wide receiver depth in the 5th-9th and real potential for three #1 backs in good situations for the stretch run. A plethora of upside backs in the third and [Chris Carson](=) or [Sony Michel](=) in the fourth really make this an attractive angle.
[Duke Johnson Jr](=), HOU - Uncertainty about what Houston will do at running back introduces some risk that he will be joined by a back that diminishes his outlook, but thereâs just as much chance that they add a replaceable backup type like [Carlos Hyde](=) and Johnsonâs value gets another boost. Heâs good. [Deshaun Watson](=) is good. This should be good.
[Austin Ekeler](=), [Justin Jackson](=), LAC - This is a way to put a chip on the [Melvin Gordon III](=) holdout, and Ekeler was better when Gordon was in last year anyway, so youâre covered. A poor offensive line could mean more passing to running backs, which would boost Ekeler. Jackson is a riskier play than Ekeler but could have enough involvement to be an RB2 bandaid cheap with Ekeler and Gordon injury upside still built in.
[Latavius Murray](=), NO - Iâm not targeting Murray because of his limited ceiling, but he looks to be as involved as [Mark Ingram II](=) was and the Saints and that gives him a reasonable ceiling and floor to endure while you wait for Elliott. Iâd take Pollard over Murray.
[Matt Breida](=), SF - Draft Breida at ADP as part of any plan. He looks better than [Tevin Coleman](=), and if Kyle Shanahan agrees, then Breida could start hot against Cincinnati and Tampa Bay. Thereâs an argument for Coleman here too, but he costs more and isnât as exciting to draft.
[Dare Ogunbowale](=), TB - Ogunbowale has the most momentum of any Bucs back, and even boring old [Jacquizz Rodgers](=)had five games of four or more receptions last year. Ogunbowale is free in drafts and could be a lot more involved in Week 1 than anyone expects with no one exactly seizing this backfield and the best passing game skill set.
=[Chris Thompson](=), WAS - Heâs been consistent enough in PPR leagues when healthy, itâs just the âwhen healthyâ part that is the problem. Washington should use him a lot with not much to offer in the downfield passing game.
[Darwin Thompson](=), KC, [Justice Hill](=), BAL - This duo should be part of any draft plan, although youâll have to pay. To take Pollard you likely miss out on one, so if you want to get really greedy, aim for the moon in high-stakes or best-ball championship contests, go for the rookie with more potential staying power having a surge that intersects with Elliottâs return. Thompson could get enough work to be a flex-worthy player and begins with the Jaguars - a defense that makes sense to attack at linebacker in the passing game - and Hill gets Miami, which portends garbage time opportunity. Either can cause their coaches to rethink the backfield split with a good game.
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Thanks for reading and thanks for being part of Footballguys. Join us tonight on Twitter for the #AskFBG TwitterThon from 5 PM - 11 PM ET and remember If you'd like to keep seeing material like this all season long, please sign up for our [Season Long Pro Subscription](. It's your secret weapon.
Have a great rest of your Thursday.
J
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