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Hi Folks,
Part of what I've always promised to do with Footballguys is keep this on a "You'll Know What I Know" level. Even when it's not definitive yet.
Here's where we are with Colts QB Andrew Luck's injury status right now.
I'm not panicked, but I'm concerned. I'm not saying the house is on fire. I'm saying I smell a little smoke.
From [Mike Chappell]() reporting about Colts owner Jim Irsay's comments on the radio. Irsay said: "I really feel very confident that heâs going to find his way through this thing. After the (Kevin) Durant thing, everyoneâs erring on the side of caution. But quite frankly, this is not even in the Achilles tendon. Itâs in another area. Itâs a bone. Iâm not good at these things. Itâs a small little bone and Ryan Diem had it and Raheem Brock I think had it the trainers told me. But heâs doing very well. Very excited. Heâs a married man, baby on the way. He couldnât be more excited for the season, and we wish there wasnât any little tweaks at all . . . but these things come up and you have to deal with them."
First thing. Consider the source. He might own the team, but I'm not sure how much stock I'm putting in Jim Irsay's medical diagnosis. He even warns us, "Iâm not good at these things." So be careful.
Secondly, there are smart people out there who are concerned too.
Dr. David Chao [had this today](:
"Not ready to write or express a formal opinion on the latest [#AndrewLuck]() news and Irsay quotes but here are preliminary thoughts by putting all the pieces together.
1) team says calf
2) Luck says lower leg
3) no one says Achilles
4) Luck indicated ankle pain
5) Irsay says bone issue
6) irsay started to say "Mo..."
7) timining if injury not pinpointed
8) clearly has lingered
9) MRI shows nothing
Am I missing anything?
When there are differing stories, the truth is always somewhere in the middle. What might explain this all is: Myositis Ossificans.
This is a condition of hererotopic ossification (extra bone forming in the soft tissue). Not dangerous, not cancer, but can cause symptoms.
Typically, myositis ossificans happens after direct trauma and bleeding. This might imply the issue started during seasom as offseason there should be no trauma. The bome formation does take months."
Will Carroll today [wrote](=):
"Myositis ossificans would explain nearly everything Luck has said - focus on Xrays, surgery ruled out, etc - but doesnât explain why Colts continually said strain. Nor does it give a clear path forward."
This of course sent Twitter to the Medical Reference Books. Myositis Ossificans, like a great many injures, [sounds pretty scary](=) with a recovery timeline measured in months.
But before we go any further, take a deep breath and let's be totally clear. Neither Chao nor Carroll are definitively claiming Luck is dealing with Myositis Ossificans. They're suggesting given the clues they see, Myositis Ossificans might be the issue. But when smart people with experience (and these are both smart people with experience) suggest something like this, pay attention.
*************
Ok then, where's that leave us on the morning of August 13?
Andrew Luck is currently around the 4th Quarterback on the board. That's the high rent district. And it's dangerous to take too much risk with a player that carries a high acquisition cost.
If I'm drafting today, I bump Luck down several spots. Probably enough that it's effectively avoiding him. There is simply just too much risk right now to justify his Average Draft Position. The good news is you can be assured this story will see a ton of attention so I expect we'll have clarity on it soon. Even if it's the team refusing to give any clarity, which tells us something too.
We're still leaning towards seeing Luck in Week 1 based on Luckâs own comments. But itâs alarming heâs not improved after 2-3 weeks of minimal activity and the last time he practiced he was uncomfortable and inaccurate. Those are no small things. And we want to let you know we're concerned. Hopefully we'll have good news to report but for now, proceed with caution.
Have a great rest of your Tuesday.
J
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