FiveThirtyEight’s top stories this week

A [FiveThirtyEight]( email [Popular This Week] Sunday, July 30, 2023 [1. What’s Going On With House Retirements This Cycle?]( [House Judiciary Committee Hears Testimony From Special Counsel John Durham]( With a presidential election on the docket in 2024, much of the political spotlight right now is shining on the race for the White House. But all over the country, there will also be a bevy of critical down-ballot contests, including all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Republicans took control of the chamber in the 2022 midterms, but hold only a 222-to-213 edge over the Democrats, meaning that Democrats would only need to flip five Republican-held seats to recapture the House. [Read more]( [2. Which Republican Will Drop Out Of The 2024 Primary First?]( [SlackChat_7_25_23_v01_DG]( Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. [Read more]( [3. A Growing Share Of Americans Think States Shouldn’t Be Able To Put Any Limits On Abortion]( [abortion-thumb-4×3]( The Supreme Court’s 2022 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization transformed the politics of abortion, turning an issue that once mattered mostly to conservative Christians into a powerful voting issue on the left. But new polling suggests that the decision could also be reshaping the way abortion-rights supporters think about the issue — specifically, whether abortion is something that should be regulated by the government at all. [Read more]( [4. Six Republican Candidates Appear To Have Qualified For The August Debate]( [University Of Colorado Prepares To Host Third GOP Presidental Primary Debate]( And they’re off! Six Republican presidential candidates appear to have qualified for their party’s first primary debate on Aug. 23, thanks to a pair of polls from Beacon Research/Shaw & Company/Fox Business released on Sunday that measured the preferences of likely GOP voters in Iowa and South Carolina. Based on FiveThirtyEight’s analysis, the two surveys increased the number of total polls that can, according to the Republican National Committee’s guidelines, qualify a candidate for the stage to five. [Read more]( [5. 16 States Made It Harder To Vote This Year. But 26 Made It Easier.]( [A demonstrator sits beside a sign that reads "Don't Mess With Texas Voters"]( Two years ago, the biggest battles in state legislatures were over voting rights. Democrats loudly — and sometimes literally — protested as Republicans passed new voting restrictions in states like Georgia, Florida and Texas. This year, attention has shifted to other hot-button issues, but the fight over the franchise has continued. Republicans have enacted dozens of laws this year that will make it harder for some people to vote in future elections. [Read more]( [6. Tell Us What the Resumption of Student Loan Payments Means For You]( Student loan payments are scheduled to begin again this October after a pause of more than three years. Because of a Supreme Court decision last month, these payments will resume without a forgiveness plan from the Biden administration that would have wiped out up to $20,000 from some borrowers’ balances. [Read more]( [7. Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley Are Leading In Early State Visits So Far]( [Senator Joni Ernst’s Annual Roast And Ride Event]( All of the Republican presidential candidates who aren’t former President Donald Trump are looking for some version of their Jimmy Carter moment. Way back in 1976, Carter — then a little-known governor — invested heavily in his Iowa ground game, won the caucuses, and went on to clinch the Democratic nomination. [Read more]( [8. Which 2024 Candidates Are In Trouble, According To The Latest Fundraising Numbers?]( [SlackChat_7_18_v01_DG]( Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. [Read more]( [9. Alabama’s Proposed Congressional Map Is Still Biased Against Black Voters]( [538_AL_Congressional_Map_4x3_v01_dnl]( UPDATE (July 18, 2023, 3:50 p.m.): On Tuesday, a Senate committee in Alabama passed a different congressional map from the one discussed below, but it has the same flaws: Namely, it does not create a second district where Black voters can reliably elect their preferred candidate. The proposed 2nd District in the second map has an even smaller Black population than the proposed 2nd District in the first map. Both maps are likely to run into legal trouble. [Read more]( [10. The Creative Fundraising Tactics Some Republicans Are Using To Make The Debate Stage]( [GOP Presidential Candidates Attend Merrimack Fourth of July Parade]( When the Republican National Committee released its qualification rules for the GOP’s first primary debate in August, a few Republican presidential contenders winced at the prospect of needing 40,000 unique donors to make the stage. Just six candidates have reached or eclipsed that mark so far, and it remains to be seen if some lesser-known candidates can do the same. [Read more]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Listen [Play]( [Politics Podcast: Who’d Win A Trump-less GOP Primary?]( [FiveThirtyEight] [View in browser]( [ABC News]( [Unsubscribe]( Our mailing address: FiveThirtyEight, 47 West 66th Street, New York, NY 10023.