The Padres Are Making a Last Stand

The FanGraphs Newsletter, September 22, 2023 [READ IN BROWSER]( September 22, 2023 To say 2023 has not exactly been the Year of the Padres should win some kind of solid gold trophy awarded for understatement. After 2021’s epic collapse, they returned to the playoffs last year, and though the NLCS ended in disappointment, they at least got the satisfaction of ending Los Angeles’ season early. With a full year of [Juan Soto]( and the return of [Fernando Tatis Jr.]( surely things would be looking up for the mustard-and-brown! Not so much. Though the Padres haven’t eclipsed 2021 in terms of dramatic failure, they’ve been mired in mediocrity the whole year; the last time they woke up in the morning with at least a .500 record was back in May. A 10–18 record in August suggested they’d go out once again with a whimper. Instead, they’ve gone 13–5 in September, easily their best month, and with a seven-game win streak, they’ve kept the ember of their playoff hopes just hot enough to make a fire potentially. With Thursday night’s games in the books, Dan Szymborski ran the usual ZiPS simulation of a million seasons in order to get the probabilities for the Padres pulling off the big comeback. But for this exercise, instead of just getting what their probabilities are now — about 1.3% — he ran the simulation 10 times, for each possible final record for San Diego. He thinks this is a better visual representation of their challenge than just the straight-up projections. [The Padres Are Making a Last Stand, by Dan Szymborski]( [Spencer Strider and Justin Steele Are Mirror Image Twins]( Two of the best pitchers in the National League are decidedly similar yet wildly different at the same time. | by Leo Morgenstern [Michael King Has Assumed His Right Place as a Starting Pitcher]( Since his move to the rotation, King has shown that he has the potential to be a top-tier starting pitcher. | by Esteban Rivera [On a Scale of Charlie Blackmon to Willy Taveras, Brenton Doyle Is an 11]( A Rockies player doing something unique and weird? Well I never. | by Michael Baumann [Five Things I Liked (Or Didn't Like) This Week, September 22]( Careers winding down, competition heating up, and speed to burn; it was a good week of baseball. | by Ben Clemens [Collisions and Kindness at Home Plate]( There were collisions and kindness at home plate on Tuesday night. | by Davy Andrews [For These Teams, Letting the Kids Play Has Paid Off]( A deep class of newcomers is putting its stamp on this year's playoff races. | by Jay Jaffe 🎧 [Effectively Wild Episode 2062: Competing Padres Postmortems]( [DOWNLOAD THE FANGRAPHS APP]( [FanGraphs & Effectively Wild Merch Is Now Available at BreakingT!]( [ORDER HERE]( [How the $445 million Mets crashed and burned]( by Tim Britton and Will Sammon, The Athletic ($) [Inside depleted Dodgers' pitching plan for the playoffs]( by Alden Gonzalez, ESPN [The Call-Up: Junior Caminero]( by Jeffrey Paternostro and Bryan Grosnick, Baseball Prospectus ($) [The pitching staff no one should want to face in the playoffs]( by THomas Harrigan, MLB [@fangraphs]( [FanGraphs]( [FanGraphs]( [RSS]( [FORWARD]( [SUBSCRIBE]( Copyright © 2023 FanGraphs Inc, All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you subscribed to the FanGraphs Newsletter. Our mailing address is: FanGraphs Inc 1200 N Hartford St. Apt 312Arlington, Va 22201 [Add us to your address book]( Want to change how you receive these emails? You can [update your preferences]( or [unsubscribe from this list](