Trust your own results, don’t worry about false positives.

Yumna M. wrote in to say that she found the phrase, “Trust your own results” to be one of the most up [View online]( [Coach Tony]( Coach Tony [@tonystubblebine]( Yumna M. wrote in to say that she found the phrase, “[Trust your own results](” to be one of the most uplifting themes of this newsletter. Good. It really is a key theme. A bit more about that in this issue. - - - - - Don’t worry about false positives. If you try a thing and it works, you may wonder: was it this thing that helped or just random chance? That’s you worrying that the thing is a false positive. This is especially true when you are futzing around with supplements and various miracle foods. My skin seems healthier when I’m taking a Vitamin D supplement — but do I know with absolute certainty that Vitamin D helps my skin? No. And I would say that certainty doesn’t matter. Take your win and move on to your next goal. - - - - - More sloppy experimental design (and it’s OK). When I say “Trust your own results” I’m saying that you are a scientist searching for a solution to your own goals. But since you don’t have to publish or replicate the results for other people, you can be a bit sloppier. Case in point, I’ve been doing some gut biome experiments: more almond to increase Oscillospira, kefir as a core ingredient in my morning smoothie, maybe kimchi in my lunch. But… the gut biome test that I wanted wouldn’t ship to New York State, so I had it shipped to my mom in Pennsylvania. Here’s the sloppy part: I’m not bothering with a baseline test and am instead assuming that my baseline is not great. If my post-intervention results look good, then I’ll chalk all these dietary behavior changes up as a win. - - - - - “Perfect is the enemy of good.” This is a common phrase, and it’s often used in a lazy way. But I mean it here in a serious way. I’m saying that sloppy experiments are good and that you can ignore false positives based on years and years of real-world experience with millions of readers and habit trackers, tens of thousands of coaching clients, thousands of coaches. Every change you try will have dozens of confounding factors, come in the midst of a hectic life, and often uncover surprising unknowns. It’s a minor miracle when something appears to work. And if you run a sloppy experiment, know that you still have the option to run a more rigorous one down the road. But for the vast majority of situations, just count your blessings and move on. - - - - - Why does Pomodoro 1K work so well for productivity? I’m starting to dig through research into the way exercise breaks feed your energy for mentally taxing work. Andrew Zimmerman referred to this tactic as “stealing fitness.” And, yes, that’s true that this Pomodoro 1K will make you stronger. But I’m much more impressed with how it helps with focus and mental intensity. [This study]( is not bad. It links alertness and heart rate, but in the opposite causal direction, i.e. alertness increases heart rate. What I’m finding is the side effect of Pomodoro 1K is that it boosts your heart rate by about 30 beats and that seems to increase alertness at the start of a work block. - - - - - Twitter List for sources in this newsletter. One of my curated sources for this newsletter is this [Twitter List](. I’ve shared it here before, but just renamed it from Academics to Better Humans Daily and also added a bunch of new health sources. Follow it if you want even more inspiration and information. The convoluted story of how I upgraded the list was that I was looking for research on the health properties of garlic, found this [disappointing study that found that all forms of garlic supplementation did nothing other than increase body odor](, loved the way the study was written and so looked up and added the primary researcher (Christopher Gardner, Stanford), and then most people associated with him. That also led me to his research group’s latest work on the [benefit of fermented foods for gut biomes](. - - - - - Tips or feedback? [Send me a response on Twitter.]( Don’t miss out on the other issues by Coach Tony [Become a member for $5 per month]( Did you enjoy this issue? [Yes]( [No]( [Coach Tony]( Coach Tony [@tonystubblebine]( Tips, inspirations, and knowledge on productivity, happiness, health, and making an impact on our world. Official email of the Better Humans publication on Medium. (@bttrhumans) You can manage your subscription [here](. In order to unsubscribe, click [here](. If you were forwarded this newsletter and you like it, you can subscribe [here](. Created with [Revue by Twitter](.