Pelosi is trouncing China in the Taiwan PR war

Plus: We're in a vibecession. [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a long national nightmare of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - Nancy Pelosi is [beating China at PR](. - Welcome to [the vibecession](. - Water is [getting scarcer](. - [Bitcoin HODLing]( is not a business plan. Pelosi: 1, People’s Republic of China: 0 Everybody knows you should never let a good crisis go to waste, and Nancy Pelosi gave China all the hardware it needed to construct a golden chariot of crisis and ride it to glory. But the People’s Republic promptly crashed its crisis chariot into a ditch. Today was Day Two of our long national nightmare of [scary cable-news intro music] NANCY PELOSI BEING IN TAIWAN. China continued to playact at being so so mad about this, with war [games]( and [sand]( (???) embargoes and whatnot. But its heart plainly wasn’t in it. Trouble is, propagandists had whipped China’s citizenry into a froth, as if Pelosi were Satan incarnate planning to use Taiwan as a base camp to attack the mainland with gallons of Super Covid Monkeypox. Now they’re [disappointed and confused]( about why the People’s Liberation Army didn’t just shoot Pelosi’s plane out of the sky, and [Beijing is scrambling to explain]( how it’s good, actually, that World War III isn’t happening. Meanwhile, Pelosi’s tour of Taiwan seems perfectly [crafted to highlight China’s malignancy]( at every stop, writes Matthew Brooker. So not only has Xi Jinping’s government been embarrassed at home, the rest of the world gets reminded of its bad behavior and the many downsides of its autocracy relative to Taiwan’s democracy. Trolling China is far too dangerous to be a staple of American foreign policy. But this particular crisis has been a pretty smooth ride so far. Illustration by Jessica Karl Illustration by Jessica Karl The State of Our Vibes Is Harsh As you know, the business of America is no longer business but [vibes](. And we may be experiencing our first vibes-based business downturn.  The economy is in a weird place right now. Most Americans [think]( we’re in a recession, but the job market has never been stronger. Stocks are in a bear market, which Aaron Brown notes historically means [a recession is either happening now]( or will simply be delayed and terrible. But [corporate borrowers are raising money]( in the bond market like happy days are here again, writes Jonathan Levin. One issue could be that businesses are worried about — oh, just choose from a list of 24 existential worries — but aren’t laying people off en masse the way they usually do, writes Conor Sen. Instead they’re being stingy with raises and letting inflation take care of their labor costs. The [result is what you might call a “jobful recession](,” in contrast to the 2010s’ “jobless recovery.” The youths sometimes call it a “vibecession.” It’s that thing where almost all the economic data are strong, but everybody feels bad anyway. This is why I am calling for the establishment of a Strategic Vibes Reserve. It’s long past time America achieved vibe independence. Water, Water Nowhere Paolo Bacigalupi’s cli-fi nightmare “[The Water Knife](” is set at an indeterminate time in the future when Britney Spears is far older than her current 40 years. But the way things are going, Western states could be at war over water long before Britney hits retirement age. Bloomberg News has a must-read feature today about how [climate change is eating away at Western US snowpack](, which in turn is drying up the rivers that keep Western states in drinking water and agriculture. This chart, from Bloomberg Opinion’s [new Elements newsletter]( (sign up [here](), shows Bacigalupi’s dystopian near future is a little too near for comfort: Meanwhile, Europe is parched, too, with the Rhine River at dangerously low levels, as this chart from Lara Williams shows: Javier Blas wrote last month that [dry European rivers]( make shipping and clean hydroelectric power much more difficult, if not impossible — as if Europe didn’t already have enough supply-chain and energy problems. The whole world needs to brace for a drier, even less utopian future. Telltale Charts MicroStrategy’s [Underpants Gnome](-level business plan to [become a reckless Bitcoin speculator]( is not paying off, Lionel Laurent observes. [Railroads juiced profits and served Wall Street]( by scrimping on service and worker pay, writes Thomas Black. With regulators finally noticing, it will soon be payback time. Further Reading The [migrant situation at America’s southern border]( is becoming a crisis. — Bloomberg’s editorial board The [West has let the Arab Spring die](. It can’t make that mistake again. — Bloomberg’s editorial board The [Kansas abortion referendum was a win]( for the pro-choice side, but its broader implications aren’t clear. — Jonathan Bernstein The killing of Ayman al-Zawahiri is [an opportunity for the Taliban]( to start behaving responsibly. — Bobby Ghosh [Credit-card rewards are no bargain]( for shoppers. — Marc Rubinstein Target date funds are [investing in the wrong kind of bonds](. — Allison Schrager ICYMI A Texas [Bitcoin miner made a fortune]( just by shutting down in the heat. [Podcast guests pay a lot of money]( to be on top shows. Alex Jones’s [lawyers apparently made a very big lawyer mistake](. RIP, [Vin Scully](. Kickers Airbnb [regrets listing “former slave quarters](” for rent. Hotter summers result in [mostly female Florida turtles](. Everything in America [is getting older](. RIP, [high heels at work](. (h/t Jessica Karl for all of today’s kickers) Notes: Please send cellphone records and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Instagram](, [TikTok](, [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022