Why isn’t India painting by the numbers?

Plus: A copper multiverse? [Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, an iridescent canvas of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Must-Reads - Stop blaming your [central bankers](. - Taiwan’s new leader has [domestic opponents]( too. - The UK’s boost for [self-driving cars](. - Spain’s being [ignored by its ex-colonies](. - How Brits can protect their [assets]( from Labour. Big Election, Little Election This week, the election that’s taken center stage is the one UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has scheduled for July 4. My colleagues Adrian Wooldridge, John Authers, Martin Ivens and Matthew Brooker have weighed in on it [here](, [here,]( [here]( and [here](. However, a more momentous one is still ongoing: that would be in India, the world’s biggest democracy. The process started on April 19 and will keep going till June 1 so that the country’s electorate of 969 million can cast their ballots. You’d think there’d be some kind of running tally, but the results will not be declared until June 4. For now, it’s all about invisible statistics, including a controversy over election transparency that’s reached the country’s highest court. The raw turn-out numbers used to be released as a matter of rote. India’s election commission has found excuses not to do so, offering only percentages. That’s led to anxiety among those who’ve bet that the ruling party is going to win big. [Says]( Andy Mukherjee: “If the nervousness in the stock market is anything to go by, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s bid for a third term doesn’t appear to be as secure as it did earlier this year.” Earlier in the week, Andy pointed out another kind of numerical anomaly. The country’s vaunted official growth rate may not actually track [the real economy](. Andy wrote: “How often people decorate their homes, and how much they’re willing to pay for it, is a function of income growth: Paint demand in India tends to outpace GDP expansion by a multiple of 1.5 to 1.75 times.” But India’s biggest decorative-paint producer said that while the country’s gross domestic product grew by about 9%, its sales expanded by only 3% in value. In 2023, when the economy was chugging along at 14%, the business had racked up a 20% increase. The paint company’s chief executive officer wondered vaguely about “the real GDP” until he realized he’d said something controversial, and the company clarified that he did not mean “to question the sanctity of the GDP numbers.” Indeed, corporate and small business questioning of the economy has been consciously toned down. Says Andy, “Whether they feel the growth or not, companies have to applaud the published GDP figures, praise India’s regressive tax system and demonize Modi’s opponents as anti-growth.” [Having written about a painting myself]( this week, I’m aware of what pigments can do. But India is a bigger canvas than Britain. Is the Copperverse a Multiverse? Copper is integral to the wind turbines, devices and motors that the experts say will take us through the energy transition. As such, the market has pushed the metal’s price skyward (on Wednesday, it was $10,419 a metric ton, down a couple of hundred dollars form a peak of $11,104.50 on Monday). Would-be buyers have been paying court to the four families who control much of the biggest deposits of the mineral. So far, [owners aren’t playing](, says David Fickling. For one, Norman Keevil, 86, turned down a $27 billion deal to take over Teck Resources, which he controls. The Keevils of Canada, the Larreas of Mexico, the Luksics of Chile and the Lundins of Sweden control operations that churn out 10% of all mined copper. (The Swedish copper barons’ assets are run out of Luxembourg.) They are hanging on to copper resources that would be more efficiently mined by gigantic mineral companies with economies of scale. Says David: “The barons’ hold on some of the world’s best pits is blocking that road to riches.” But Javier Blas says copper [may not be all that it’s wired up to be](. He writes: “As with every financial narrative, the story of the boom has a grain of truth — and ample hogwash.” China — where demand is highest — is in the doldrums. Market forces will also affect demand, he says. “With copper prices above $10,000, the incentive to switch increases. Copper is the best affordable electricity conductor, but aluminum, which costs about $2,600 a ton, can replace it — and is already — in some applications. As prices rise, engineers would have a strong incentive to use copper more sparingly.” So buyer beware: All that glitters is not copper. Telltale Chart “To halt an unprecedented property downturn, Beijing is asking local governments to buy unsold homes with cheap loans from the central bank. … Xi may be left with no choice. In the first four months of 2024, home sales worsened to only 2.4 trillion yuan ($332 billion), an alarming deterioration from the 2021 peak when annual sales exceeded 16 trillion yuan. For comparison purposes, despite China’s great success in electric vehicles, auto sales came in at just 4.9 trillion yuan last year. There’s simply no alternative sector that can fill the black hole left by real estate.” — Shuli Ren in “[Has Xi Really Changed His Mind on Housing and Consumption?](” Further Reading Beware of banking at [a non-bank](. — Marc Rubinstein [Walmart]( is coming for Target. — Andrea Felsted China and India share [a bad habit](. — The Editors The scary new age of [turbulence](. — Lara Williams Xi’s just not into your [pipeline](, Vladimir. — David Fickling China’s factories are hard at work but [no one’s buying](. — Tim Culpan Sometimes, it’s your fault you got [scammed](. — Paul J. Davies The BHP-Anglo [tango]( continues. — Chris Hughes Walk of the Town: The Long Shadow of War UK Prime Minister Sunak rattled off several reasons for wanting to win the July general elections. But, according to Adrian Wooldridge, the most significant rationale was [the shadow of war](. Russia and China are making the world a more dangerous place; and the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House could mean that the US withdraws from NATO — and Europe must fend for itself. “The age of the peace dividend and Pax Americana is long over,” says Adrian. That specter brought me to the cool shadows of a corner in Gordon Square Garden. The park was a gathering place for the famous members of the Bloomsbury Group (Virginia Woolf, her sister Vanessa Bell, John Maynard Keynes, the Strachey brothers and others) who lived in its periphery. But I was looking for someone else who used to frequent the garden: Noor Inayat Khan, sometimes called Nora, the daughter of the leader of an influential Sufi cleric from Baroda, India and his American wife. She was a writer of children’s books and a pacifist, but that’s not why a monument has been raised in her memory. After fleeing France (where her family lived) at the onset of World War II, she decided she had to do something to fight Hitler’s advance. She joined the Women’s Auxiliary Air Force and later was recruited by the intelligence division of Britain’s air force. Monument to a war hero. Photograph by Howard Chua-Eoan/Bloomberg She was an unlikely warrior. At first, her trainers thought she was panicky and not particularly well suited for challenging physical activity except running. Yet, she proved confident and courageous. Under the code name Madeleine, she became the first woman wireless telegraph operator sent into Nazi-occupied France to coordinate activity with the resistance against the Germans. When things grew dire, she refused to return to England, arguing that she was the only Allied personnel capable of receiving and transmitting messages left in the country. Betrayed by an acquaintance, she was deported to Dachau where she was executed on Sept. 13, 1944. According to legend, her last word was “Liberté.” She was posthumously awarded Britain’s highest honor for gallantry, the George Cross. Drawdown Thanks for sticking with me. Here’s a toast to you. ”Let’s eat, drink and be merry for tomorrow we… Eh, let’s forget about that last part.” Illustration by Howard Chua-Eoan/Bloomberg Notes: Please send fatalistic drumbeats and feedback to Howard Chua-Eoan at hchuaeoan@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Instagram](, [TikTok](, [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. 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