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Trump’s health is another mystery we didn’t need

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Mon, Oct 5, 2020 09:05 PM

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[Bloomberg]( Follow Us //link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/click/21701197.65070/aHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0dGVyLmNvbS9ib3Bpbmlvbg/582c8673566a94262a8b49bdB608fa701 This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, an experimental drug cocktail of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - Trump’s health is [one more mystery for markets](. - But keeping it a mystery [isn’t helping Trump politically](. - [Cities]( and [cinemas]( are still suffering from an absence of people. - Maybe all this misery is a [sign things are about to change]( for the better. Trump and Covid The coronavirus pandemic turned investors into amateur epidemiologists almost overnight, and now President Donald Trump’s illness with the disease has them moonlighting in Kremlinology as well.  Is the president dangerously sick, as his apparently unprecedented treatment with an [experimental]( cocktail of drugs suggests, or is he ready to [return]( to the White House, feeling [better]( than he has in 20 years? The stock market, for some reason, allegedly keeps rising and falling as the answer to that question shifts with every rumor and risky limo ride. As Mohamed El-Erian writes, [the outlook for the economy and markets was uncertain enough]( before the president of the United States fell ill. Some traders had apparently convinced themselves [herd immunity had prematurely arrived in the U.S.](, suggests John Authers. Seeing the disease roll [unchecked]( through the White House, from the president to his body man and all staffers in between, casts doubt on such notions. There would be much more certainty, for better or worse, if officials were being transparent about the president’s health. But [not even Trump’s doctors have been honest about his progress](, notes Jonathan Bernstein, not to mention the (now also infected) White House press staff. This approach may have been designed to keep the president and markets happy, but it has deprived Trump of the sort of national upwelling of sympathy enjoyed by his U.K. counterpart, Boris Johnson. Such good feelings may have temporarily boosted Johnson’s standing, but [Trump’s situation is very different](, writes Therese Raphael. Johnson was far more popular than Trump when he fell ill and has mostly taken the virus far more seriously. Voters [blame]( Trump for his own illness and that of many Americans. Markets may have rallied today partly on hopes Trump will get well soon. But they’re also starting to price in the likelihood he’ll be [replaced]( soon, too. Sponsored Content by Canalyst The Madness Every earnings season, thousands of analysts spend 40% of their time manually entering identical numbers into nearly identical spreadsheets. Hundreds of funds already use [Canalyst]([’s]( 4000+ fundamental models and seamless earnings updates to [get ahead](.  Cities and Cinemas Suffering Meanwhile, the pandemic is [surging]( again around the country, threatening more death, misery and economic destruction. Even in places where it is relatively quiet, [well-off professionals are still mostly working from home,]( writes Justin Fox, crushing the economies of the cities that need their commuting, shopping and dining dollars. People still aren’t jamming into movie theaters, either, leading to delays of the blockbuster fare that keeps them in business. Today the opening of “Dune” got [pushed back]( nearly an entire year. Last week the latest Bond flick, “No Time to Die,” also got moved to 2021, which was the [last straw for the U.K.’s Cineworld Group](, operator of Regal theaters, notes Alex Webb. It’s closing hundreds of locations and possibly ending tens of thousands of jobs. There may be hope for our cities and movie theaters, but life will need to soon get back to a normal that includes people returning to them. Further Pandemic Reading: Who [should get a vaccine first](? The answer depends partly on how effective it is. — Mark Buchanan Bonus Economic Reading: All recoveries start out K-shaped, with lower-income workers catching up last. [This one should be no different](. — Michael R. Strain There Must Be a Pony in Here Somewhere There’s a cliche that says it’s always darkest before the dawn, which is [absolutely not true]( in a scientific sense but could still hold some metaphorical water. It is entirely possible, Tyler Cowen writes, that all of the fear, anger and general discontent so many of us feel these days is simply [a sign of vast changes afoot in technology and culture](, much of which could actually be good. Yes, there’s a pandemic, recession and climate catastrophe happening, but humanity is also making huge leaps in health care, clean energy and other technologies that could help solve those problems. Telltale Charts LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton Petco Lamborghini Aflac SE (note to self: double-check those names) might just be [ditching Tiffany to get a better prize in Cartier](, writes Andrea Felsted. Further Reading Republicans [don’t really want the Supreme Court to end abortion]( rights, or they would have done it by now. — Frank Wilkinson Bank regulators are right to [worry about how banks account for real-estate risks]( these days. — Elisa Martinuzzi After the George Floyd protests, [immigrant businesses in Minneapolis are suffering]( from a lack of local leadership. — Adam Minter Around Gettysburg, [race is still an open wound in America](. — Frank Barry I [plan to die with nothing](, having spent my money on experiences, charities and my kids while I’m still alive. — Farnoosh Torabi ICYMI The CDC says [coronavirus can spread indoors]( beyond 6 feet. Exxon plans a [huge surge in carbon emissions](. Americans [are driving less](. Kickers The U.K.’s [poor Excel skills hid a surge]( in Covid-19 cases. How to [build a lay-down desk](. The [economics of vending machines](. The remaining [eight MLB playoff teams](, ranked. Note: Please send lay-down desks and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](.  Like Bloomberg Opinion Today? [Subscribe to Bloomberg All Access]( and get much, much more. You’ll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](.  You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022

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