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Todayâs Agenda
- Trumpâs health is [one more mystery for markets](.
- But keeping it a mystery [isnât helping Trump politically](.
- [Cities]( and [cinemas]( are still suffering from an absence of people.
- Maybe all this misery is a [sign things are about to change]( for the better.
Trump and Covid
The coronavirus pandemic turned investors into amateur epidemiologists almost overnight, and now President Donald Trumpâs illness with the disease has them moonlighting in Kremlinology as well. Â
Is the president dangerously sick, as his apparently unprecedented treatment with an [experimental]( cocktail of drugs suggests, or is he ready to [return]( to the White House, feeling [better]( than he has in 20 years? The stock market, for some reason, allegedly keeps rising and falling as the answer to that question shifts with every rumor and risky limo ride. As Mohamed El-Erian writes, [the outlook for the economy and markets was uncertain enough]( before the president of the United States fell ill. Some traders had apparently convinced themselves [herd immunity had prematurely arrived in the U.S.](, suggests John Authers. Seeing the disease roll [unchecked]( through the White House, from the president to his body man and all staffers in between, casts doubt on such notions.Â
There would be much more certainty, for better or worse, if officials were being transparent about the presidentâs health. But [not even Trumpâs doctors have been honest about his progress](, notes Jonathan Bernstein, not to mention the (now also infected) White House press staff. This approach may have been designed to keep the president and markets happy, but it has deprived Trump of the sort of national upwelling of sympathy enjoyed by his U.K. counterpart, Boris Johnson.Â
Such good feelings may have temporarily boosted Johnsonâs standing, but [Trumpâs situation is very different](, writes Therese Raphael. Johnson was far more popular than Trump when he fell ill and has mostly taken the virus far more seriously. Voters [blame]( Trump for his own illness and that of many Americans. Markets may have rallied today partly on hopes Trump will get well soon. But theyâre also starting to price in the likelihood heâll be [replaced]( soon, too.
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Cities and Cinemas Suffering
Meanwhile, the pandemic is [surging]( again around the country, threatening more death, misery and economic destruction. Even in places where it is relatively quiet, [well-off professionals are still mostly working from home,]( writes Justin Fox, crushing the economies of the cities that need their commuting, shopping and dining dollars.Â
People still arenât jamming into movie theaters, either, leading to delays of the blockbuster fare that keeps them in business. Today the opening of âDuneâ got [pushed back]( nearly an entire year. Last week the latest Bond flick, âNo Time to Die,â also got moved to 2021, which was the [last straw for the U.K.âs Cineworld Group](, operator of Regal theaters, notes Alex Webb. Itâs closing hundreds of locations and possibly ending tens of thousands of jobs. There may be hope for our cities and movie theaters, but life will need to soon get back to a normal that includes people returning to them.
Further Pandemic Reading: Who [should get a vaccine first](? The answer depends partly on how effective it is. â Mark BuchananÂ
Bonus Economic Reading: All recoveries start out K-shaped, with lower-income workers catching up last. [This one should be no different](. â Michael R. StrainÂ
There Must Be a Pony in Here Somewhere
Thereâs a cliche that says itâs always darkest before the dawn, which is [absolutely not true]( in a scientific sense but could still hold some metaphorical water. It is entirely possible, Tyler Cowen writes, that all of the fear, anger and general discontent so many of us feel these days is simply [a sign of vast changes afoot in technology and culture](, much of which could actually be good. Yes, thereâs a pandemic, recession and climate catastrophe happening, but humanity is also making huge leaps in health care, clean energy and other technologies that could help solve those problems.Â
Telltale Charts
LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton Petco Lamborghini Aflac SE (note to self: double-check those names) might just be [ditching Tiffany to get a better prize in Cartier](, writes Andrea Felsted.Â
Further Reading
Republicans [donât really want the Supreme Court to end abortion]( rights, or they would have done it by now. â Frank WilkinsonÂ
Bank regulators are right to [worry about how banks account for real-estate risks]( these days. â Elisa MartinuzziÂ
After the George Floyd protests, [immigrant businesses in Minneapolis are suffering]( from a lack of local leadership. â Adam MinterÂ
Around Gettysburg, [race is still an open wound in America](. â Frank Barry
I [plan to die with nothing](, having spent my money on experiences, charities and my kids while Iâm still alive. â Farnoosh TorabiÂ
ICYMI
The CDC says [coronavirus can spread indoors]( beyond 6 feet.
Exxon plans a [huge surge in carbon emissions](.
Americans [are driving less](.
Kickers
The U.K.âs [poor Excel skills hid a surge]( in Covid-19 cases.
How to [build a lay-down desk](.
The [economics of vending machines](.
The remaining [eight MLB playoff teams](, ranked.Â
Note: Please send lay-down desks and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.
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