How Pelosi won (again)

[BloombergOpinion]( [Early Returns]( [Jonathan Bernstein]( Two new pieces, from the [Washington Post]( and [Politico](, offer behind-the-scenes details about Representative Nancy Pelosi’s successful fight for a second stint as speaker of the House. Both tell the same story: Pelosi prevailed by demonstrating just how good she is at her job. As the Post put it, she won by “methodically undermining her opposition, tapping a vast network of allies and relying on a grab bag of political favors.” A few specifics are worth highlighting. One is that the rebels seriously misunderstood the political situation. The big Democratic win in the midterm elections changed the whole context. For both the caucus and the wider party, Pelosi was no longer the unpopular leader who was putting seats at risk; she was, instead, the leader who brought them back to victory. Or, as I said [in October](, “Parties rarely punish their leaders after winning, and even if criticism of Pelosi cost some candidates their elections, everyone who is voting in the Democratic caucus will have survived those attacks.” I quote myself not because I was clever in realizing this, but because it was perfectly obvious, and it doesn’t speak well of Representative Seth Moulton – a leader of the rebels – that he never seemed to grasp that basic idea. Second, while congressional leadership battles are usually personal and hinge on relationships within the caucus, this time seemed a little different. I suspect (and I’d love to see evidence from experts) that the relationships Pelosi called upon within the national party network were far more extensive than what was available to, say, Tip O’Neill or Sam Rayburn when they were in similar positions. Also, it sure seemed like there was real grass-roots support for Pelosi, possibly organized by the same people who have energized the resistance and who drummed up turnout in the midterms. Another interesting angle is Pelosi’s public perception. Her first speakership, from 2007 to 2011, was not much celebrated by the news media. But a combination of the big midterm victory and the internal challenge to her leadership produced a kind of Ginsburgization of her, both in the traditional press and on social media. Here O’Neill again offers a useful comparison: Although the news media had generally dismissed him as a fossil by the 1970s, in his final years as speaker he ended up being recast as a kind but wily grandfather. Pelosi did have to compromise to keep the job (or at least to avoid a close vote) by accepting a four-year limit on her second run. But she didn’t give up much. At 78, she probably doesn’t want to stay for more than two more terms anyway. And while I’m sure her commitment is sincere, it’s worth noting that if future House Democrats wanted her to stick around, they could certainly release her from her pledge. (Although the complaints about a leadership team that’s been in place forever were quite reasonable, and are almost certainly widespread within the caucus.) O’Neill was the first modern speaker, and also the best at balancing the needs of his caucus, his party and the House as a whole. Pelosi, in her relatively brief previous stint in the job, was the only one of O’Neill’s successors to have come close to matching him. (The only modern Republican speaker who has been good at the job, John Boehner, was often stymied by the impossible context in which he found himself.) From what she’s demonstrated over the past month, from winning back her job to outmaneuvering (with Senator Chuck Schumer) the man in the Oval Office, Pelosi seems quite ready to take the gavel back. 1. Whitney K. Taylor at the Monkey Cage on [health care as a human right.]( 2. Jennifer Bendery on passage of a new [congressional sexual-harassment policy](. 3. Fred Kaplan on President Donald Trump’s [defense budget](. 4. Philip Klein makes some solid points about why [Beto O’Rourke is probably overrated]( as a presidential candidate. My general feeling: Almost anyone (Herman Cain! Howard Dean! Bruce Babbitt?!?) can have a momentary surge, but only some candidates have the fundamentals to capitalize on it. 5. And Amy Walter on the 2020 [nomination contest](. I disagree with her in some respects. Mainly, I think she sells short the ability of the party to influence what happens. But she’s always worth reading, and could be correct. Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click [here]( to subscribe. Also subscribe to [Bloomberg All Access]( and get much, much more. You’ll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close. Bloomberg L.P. ● 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 [Web]( ● [Facebook]( ● [Twitter]( [Feedback]( ● [Unsubscribe](