5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day

Good morning. It’s nonfarm payrolls day, China is boosting stimulus efforts and Tesla refreshes the Model 3. Here’s what’s moving markets. — [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Good morning. It’s nonfarm payrolls day, China is boosting stimulus efforts and Tesla refreshes the Model 3. Here’s what’s moving markets. — [Sam Unsted]( Jobs day US nonfarm payrolls and unemployment data are set to take center stage on Friday and markets are [in a holding pattern]( ahead of those crucial reports. Economists expect 170,000 jobs added in the nonfarm payrolls release, and for unemployment to hold steady at 3.5%. A benign jobs report could be the “last piece of the Goldilocks jigsaw’’ that could mean the Federal Reserve pauses rate hikes, according to Bank of America, though it said the [risk of a hard landing]( for the economy remains. China stimulus China has [intensified its efforts]( to boost the economy and support its currency amid investor concerns about its growth outlook. The country’s central bank will trim the amount of foreign currency deposits banks have to hold for the first time this year after a fresh round of stimulus for its troubled property sector and new tax breaks for child care and education. Model 3 Tesla has [unveiled the first refresh of the Model 3 sedan]( and has cut the price of its premium cars in the US and China, a push by Chief Executive Elon Musk to boost sales for the electric-vehicle maker. The cuts follow reductions in price that Tesla made last month. They are set to take another toll on margins, which dropped to a four-year low in the second quarter. Holding pattern Action in Treasuries and the dollar is muted ahead of the jobs report, while commodities prices from oil to [metals]( are rising on China’s latest stimulus plans. Stocks across Europe are marginally higher. In US premarket trading, chipmaker Broadcom is declining after a [downbeat forecast]( while PC maker Dell Technologies is up nearly 10% on [signs of a rebound](. Coming Up… Payrolls and unemployment data will take top billing but ISM manufacturing numbers later in the session will also garner some attention. The Fed’s Loretta Mester is due to speak at the European Central Bank and Cleveland Fed's Center for Inflation Research conference. What We’ve Been Reading This is what’s caught our eye over the past 24 hours. - Banks are [cracking down]( on return-to-office laggards. - The ECB [questions the power]( of an inverted yield curve. - A slick website for a [billionaire-backed city](. - [Huge metals scam]( hits a European copper producer. - Donald Trump says he’s the[“hottest brand in the world.”]( - Powering the Gulf’s [$50 billion spending spree](. - [Magic mushrooms]( and easing major depression. And finally, here's what Katie’s interested in this morning My favorite type of sentence is one that includes both “screaming” and “Treasury” in it. Luckily for me, Ian Lyngen of BMO Capital Markets delivered a beauty this week. “The 10-year Treasury in my mind is a screaming buy,” Lyngen said on Bloomberg Television. “I think that from here the path forward for nominal 10-year yields is going to be lower.” Specifically, Lyngen sees benchmark 10-year yields returning to a range between 3.5% to 3.75% by the end of this year as investor confidence in the Federal Reserve’s inflation-fighting prowess builds, en route to reaching 3% in the first half of 2024. For context, 10-year yields broke decisively above 3% last August and have climbed since. Evidently, Lyngen isn’t alone. While this August saw 10-year yields climb for a fourth straight month, a big bid returned to the bond market in recent weeks: after rocketing as high as 4.36% on an intraday basis, the rate is sitting at about 4.1%. But even as the selloff loses steam, some of the world’s biggest investment firms aren’t yet ready to give the all clear. As reported by Bloomberg’s Michael Mackenzie, money managers from the likes of BlackRock Inc., T. Rowe Price Group Inc. and the Vanguard Group expect yields to resume their climb higher as a still-strong US economy threatens further Fed hikes. Follow Bloomberg's Katie Greifeld on Twitter [@kgreifeld]( Like Bloomberg's Five Things? [Subscribe for unlimited access]( to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? 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