Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Americas

Good morning. US stock futures are flatlining as traders wait to see if US jobs data due later Friday will cement bets on when the Federal R [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Good morning. US [stock futures are flatlining]( as traders wait to see if US jobs data due later Friday will cement bets on when the Federal Reserve can start to ease monetary policy. The dollar is little changed while treasury yields are edging higher. -[Morwenna Coniam]( Want to receive this newsletter in Spanish? [Sign up to get the Five Things: Spanish Edition newsletter](. Eyes on employment Today’s US employment report for May is expected to add new [evidence that the labor market is gradually cooling](, even if hiring rebounded from April. Employers are expected to have boosted payrolls by 180,000 last month, while average hourly earnings likely advanced 3.9% over the last 12 months, matching April’s rate when wage growth hit its slowest mark in almost three years. Fed in focus Rate-cut expectations have escalated in the past week, encouraged by the slew of weaker-than-forecast US data, as well as policy easing from the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank.  Swap markets are pricing a full Fed cut by November, with a strong likelihood of one in September. Still, JPMorgan and Citigroup are among the few banks predicting the Fed [will ease next month](. Bond bonanza Growing optimism over rate cuts have propelled global government bonds to post their longest rising streak since November, while another day of gains would mark the best run since May 2022. Still, while good for bonds, Bank of America warns that Fed easing would be the [“first hint of trouble”](for the economy, with the chance of a hard landing increasing if the market grows more confident of lower rates in the second half of 2024. China stops buying gold China’s central bank didn’t buy [any gold last month](, ending a massive purchasing spree that ran for 18 months and helped push the precious metal to a recent record high. China had been stocking up reserves since November 2022, leading a flurry of purchases by the world’s central banks amid rising geopolitical tensions. The risk for gold bulls now is that China’s earlier appetite has left the metal vulnerable to any potential shift in demand. Apartment investors wiped out Much of the worry over US commercial property has centered on the office market. Still, multifamily buildings make up the biggest share of properties with potential distress, with more than $56 billion worth of real estate at risk of financial trouble. When interest rates started spiking two years ago, values tanked, with much of the unraveling being centered on personal investors. Read about the crisis in [today’s Big Take here](. What We’ve Been Reading This is what’s caught our eye over the past 24 hours. - GameStop speculators may be in for a wild ride as [meme maven](Keith Gill returns to YouTube - [Saudi Arabia](is set for a $11.2 billion haul from its sale of Aramco - Trump [tax cut renewal]( is winning Wall Street, but could cost $4.6 trillion - UK tech mogul Lynch [beats HP fraud case]( in stunning US loss - [Apple to debut passwords app]( in challenge to 1Password and LastPass And finally, here's what Katie’s interested in this morning Three makes a trend, but unless something truly shocking happens when US employment figures drop on Friday, the Federal Reserve isn’t going to complete the rate-cut triple crown next week. The Bank of Canada was the first Group of Seven central bank to cut interest rates, delivering a 0.25% reduction earlier this week with the promise of more to come. The European Central Bank followed suit, though its message about the future was somewhat mixed, saying it will take longer for inflation to reach its 2% target. Virtually no one is expecting the Fed to make a similar move next week. Bond traders see the US central bank on hold until November, while the most dovish outliers — JPMorgan and Citigroup among them — don’t expect the Fed to ease until July’s meeting. Citigroup’s forecast for a July rate cut — the first of four this year — “depends on softer labor market data including on Friday,” Andrew Hollenhorst, chief US economist at the bank, said on Wednesday. Needless to say, the stakes are high as we head into 8:30 am New York time. Economists expect that the US economy added 180,000 jobs in May, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.9%. However, labor market data from the past few days have revived bond bulls. Private payrolls increased by a less-than-anticipated 152,000 last month, while US job openings fell to the lowest level since 2021 in April. Katie Greifeld is an anchor for Bloomberg TV in New York. Follow her on X @kgreifeld. [Bloomberg Markets Wrap: The latest on what's moving global markets. Tap to read.]( Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things to Start Your Day: Americas Edition newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. 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