Problems in common

Brazil’s President Lula is in the US today to meet with Joe Biden. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( On the face of it, US President Joe Biden and his Brazilian counterpart, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, have a lot in common. Biden, 80, and Lula, 77, are political veterans who share a humble background, and espouse a progressive politics of social equality and a commitment to fighting climate change. Key reading - [Biden, Lula Put On Pro-Democracy Show Under Bolsonaro’s Shadow]( - [Brazil Capital Reels After Anti-Lula Rioters Storm Congress]( - [Bolsonaro Takes Post-Presidency Florida Tour to a Trump Resort]( - [Bolsonaro Finds a Refuge Near ‘Most Magical Place on Earth’]( - [Lula Brushes Off Scholz’s Appeal to Send Arms to Kyiv]( Both overcame populist opponents — and each is still grappling with a deeply polarized society that saw eerily similar right-wing insurrections targeting the heart of democratic institutions. Yet sparks might still fly when Biden welcomes Lula to Washington today. Lula has made it clear that he won’t simply fall in behind the US, and will make his voice heard on international affairs. As [Simone Iglesias]( and [Jordan Fabian]( write, he has shunned attempts to get Brazil to support Ukraine’s war effort, suggesting Kyiv shares the blame for Russia’s invasion. Where US-China ties have soured further over the downing of an alleged surveillance balloon, Lula is pushing his own peace plan for Ukraine, with China as a possible mediator. He’s set to visit Beijing next month. The Brazilian leader also wants US embargoes on Cuba and Venezuela dropped, a demand that’s likely to go nowhere with Biden. Adding to the potential awkwardness, there’ll be an elephant in the room when they meet: common adversaries brooding in Florida. Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has been vacationing in the Sunshine State since Dec. 30, while former US President Donald Trump, a Bolsonaro ally, has based himself in Florida as he prepares for a potential rematch with Biden in 2024. For all the outward similarities, the fact that Democrats are pushing for his expulsion makes Bolsonaro’s continued presence in the US Biden’s problem more than Lula’s. The Brazilian leader gives every sign of being perfectly happy for it to remain so. — [Alan Crawford]( Lula in Brasilia on Jan. 30 Photographer: Arthur Menescal/Bloomberg Coming Soon: Understand power in Washington through the lens of business, government and the economy. Find out how the worlds of money and politics intersect in the US capital. [Sign up now for the new Bloomberg Washington newsletter](, delivered Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays. Click [here]( for this week’s most compelling political images. And if you’re enjoying this newsletter, [sign up here](. Global Headlines Missile claim | Ukraine accused Russia of [launching]( two cruise missiles in an attack that violated the air space of NATO member Romania, ratcheting up concern of an escalation between the alliance and Moscow. Romania denied missiles crossed its air space. The rockets were [part of a barrage]( that began with early-morning drone attacks that triggered power blackouts across Ukraine. - Russia said it will cut oil output by 500,000 barrels a day next month, following through on a [threat to retaliate]( against sanctions and sending oil prices sharply higher. Rising anger | Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan faces [criticism]( from earthquake survivors and opposition parties over the country’s poor construction record and what they say has been an inadequate response to one of its worst natural disasters. With the national death toll passing 16,500, critics say delays in sending heavy machinery missed a window to potentially save tens of thousands of people buried under rubble. - Turkey is seeking the green light from Russia to use [new border crossings]( to deliver aid to quake survivors in northwest Syria, sources say. - Follow our rolling coverage of the disaster [here](. Volunteers keep warm around a fire during rescue operations in Hatay. Photographer: Cansu Yildirann/Bloomberg Election calculus | China said it’s willing to forge [closer ties]( with Taiwan’s main opposition party as campaign season heats up for a presidential election on the democratically run island in January. Chinese President Xi Jinping appears to be calculating that easing off could boost the chances of a candidate from the Kuomintang, which shares the view that Taiwan is part of China. - More than half of Taiwanese [surveyed]( in a recent poll say they support a visit by US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy — even though Beijing responded to a trip by his predecessor by launching missiles over Taiwan. - Representative Ro Khanna, a California Democrat who represents much of Silicon Valley, said he plans to visit both [China and Taiwan]( to try to stabilize the US-Chinese trade relationship and boost ties to the Taiwanese semiconductor industry. The UK avoided a recession last year by the [narrowest of margins]( after the cost-of-living crisis and industrial action hit the economy during December. The economy was 0.8% smaller than its size at the end of 2019, making the UK the only Group of Seven country that has yet to fully recover output lost during the pandemic. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [Nigeria’s Democracy Is Fine, But Not Much Else: Bobby Ghosh]( - [China Will Benefit From ‘Finding’ Its Lost Children: Adam Minter]( - [Tax Havens Cast a Long Shadow on Adani: Andy Mukherjee]( Campaign hints | Biden sent his strongest signal yet of a bid for [re-election]( with a show of strength in a union hall near Madison, a heavily Democratic part of a swing state that will help crown the winner of the 2024 contest. He has given every indication that he plans to seek a second term and he received only encouragement in Wisconsin. - House Republicans on a panel focusing on the “weaponization” of the federal government alleged that the Justice Department and other agencies made a priority of [singling out]( and suppressing conservatives. Explainers you can use - [Section 230 and How Online Speech Is Moderated in US]( - [The Tech Behind Those Amazing, Flawed New Chatbots]( - [IMF Says Public Support Needed to Change Climate Policies]( Leading candidate | Nigerian businessman and ex-governor Peter Obi remains the [top choice]( to become the West African nation’s next president, according to a new poll. Dismissed by his opponents from the two dominant parties as a “social media candidate,” Obi’s rise has been fueled by disenchantment with the status quo, even if the man seeking to secure Nigeria’s biggest electoral upset on Feb. 25 hardly has an anti-establishment background. Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with [David Westin]( on weekdays from 12 to 1pm ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2pm ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here](. News to Note - Britain’s Labour Party posted another [convincing]( special-election victory in a boost for leader Keir Starmer’s efforts to return it to power after almost 13 years in opposition. - Hong Kong made its first [arrest]( for CBD after criminalizing the cannabis-derived product increasingly used worldwide to treat pain and anxiety. - Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s economic plan may be [derailed]( by any serious damage to billionaire Gautam Adani’s business empire as the conglomerate operates the country’s largest chunk of infrastructure projects, analyst Sadanand Dhume told Bloomberg Television. - Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim received [positive]( ratings in a new survey, with a majority of people polled welcoming his unity government, a boost ahead of six state elections that must be held this year. Pop quiz (no cheating!) Millions of dollars from which country are being smuggled into Afghanistan, helping the Taliban evade sanctions imposed after the US withdrawal in 2021? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net. And finally ... Public finances in developed economies are buckling as retirement promises made to previous generations [collide]( with the realities of an aging population. Yet despite near-universal agreement from economists that people will need to work for longer, save more or receive less, many countries haven’t legislated to increase the retirement age. Some are softening planned reforms as the political and social backlash escalates. France is experiencing major strikes over pension reforms. Photographer: Nathan Laine/Bloomberg Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Politics newsletter. 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