5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day

Jobs day arrives, Biden warns on Russia and winter doldrums hit UK. It’s finally US jobs day. The median estimate in Bloomberg survey is for [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Jobs day arrives, Biden warns on Russia and winter doldrums hit UK. Jobs jostle It’s finally US jobs day. The median estimate in Bloomberg survey is for a gain of 255k in September non-farm payrolls, a slower pace than the 315k rate seen the previous month. While that gave rise to a narrative that the Federal Reserve may rethink its most aggressive tightening campaign since the 1980s, several officials have pushed back with a[resolutely hawkish tone](. Guggenheim Partners’ Scott Minerd heard the message loud and clear and thinks the Fed will continue with rate increases until “[something breaks.](” But should the data disappoint, it will validate views by Bill Gross, Doubleline’s Jeffrey Gundlach and Pimco’s Andrew Balls, who have all argued that [bonds are attractive now](.  Biden’s warning President Joe Biden said the US is trying to find an “off-ramp” for Russian President Vladimir Putin and worries his threats to use tactical nuclear weapons are real and could lead to “[Armageddon](.” European leaders affirmed Biden’s warning, saying that it shows the seriousness of the threat from Moscow’s escalation in Ukraine. Putin has renewed his nuclear threats as he announced the annexation of Ukrainian territory, some of which Russia doesn’t control, and with the call-up of 300,000 reservists to reinforce his flagging invasion. Winter doldrums The UK woke up this morning to front pages warning about the [risk of winter power cuts](, as the country heads into the season with the smallest margin of back-up power supplies in seven years. That's not the only alarm bell being sounded, with firms suggesting [their hiring plans are grinding to a halt]( and Halifax suggesting the [housing market is also showing signs of weakness](. Amid the negative headlines, UK markets are fairly quiet today, giving you time for this story taking a historic view of how [the BOE finally embraced]( its role as a market maker of last resort. Subdued markets It’s a day of small moves in markets as traders await US data, with S&P 500 futures little changed along with Bloomberg’s dollar gauge as of 6:16 a.m. in New York. Treasury yields are up slightly, climbing one to two basis points across the curve. Equities were mixed in Europe, with technology shares underperforming following warnings from chipmakers over a “[breathtaking](” drop in demand. Coming up… Away from the jobs data, traders are gearing up for yet more Fed speakers. Today's line up features John Williams, Neel Kashkari and Raphael Bostic -- all of whom are talking after the payrolls number. Next week, all eyes will be on Washington as global finance ministers and central bankers converge on the US capital for the International Monetary Fund's annual meetings. What we’ve been reading Here’s what caught our eye over the past 24 hours: - Amazon [abandons its robot]( - Americans fill the void left by Russians in the [superyacht world]( - The Mets are turning into [Steve Cohen’s version of `Moneyball’Â]( - Michelin [gives — and takes — starsÂ]( - [House of Porsche](: who’s who in car-billionaire clan - [Credit Suisse’s next step](is buying its own debt - [London’s priciest home]( is owned by Evergrande’s founder And finally, here’s what Simon’s interested in this morning It can’t come round soon enough (some might say), but payrolls day is here again. After July’s huge upside surprise, last month’s number was much more in line. The estimate for September is 255k, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7%. There’s a drip feed of employment-related data all through the month, but little of it has been enough of an outlier to significantly tilt expectations for payrolls either way. The employment component of the ISM Manufacturing report dropped below 50, but that has marginal explanatory power with payrolls on a month-to-month basis. ADP’s measure of private payrolls was in line, while the inching up in unemployment claims is not sufficient to move the needle. There was much hoo-ha over the fall in the JOLTS’ measure of job openings on Tuesday, fanning speculation of a Fed pivot. But job openings only really make sense when viewed in relation to hires, and on that basis the number of job openings in the US labor market is still very high relative to hires. Nonetheless, multiple leading indicators show us that the cycle is peaking and the jobs market will soon start to slow, although we are unlikely to see this clearly in the data for a few months yet. Until then, the Fed is laser-focused on inflation (which we’ll get the latest read on next week). And while an unexpectedly very weak set of employment data would prompt the market to increase the size (and perhaps move back the start of) the Fed pivot, a single, notoriously noisy data point will not be enough for the Fed to be confident the inflation wind has changed. Payrolls are likely to be hotly anticipated for many more months to come. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things - Americas newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. [Unsubscribe]( [Bloomberg.com]( [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( [Ad Choices](