A shake-up in South Africa

South Africa's election is likely to weaken the ANC [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. The party that Nelson Mandela led to power 30 years ago is likely to remain in control — just — following today’s election in South Africa. That’s not because voters think President Cyril Ramaphosa’s African National Congress has done a stellar job. On the contrary, residents have had to endure an energy crisis, endemic corruption and [massive unemployment](. Two things [are working]( in the ANC’s favor: apathy and a splintered opposition. In excess of 50 parties are trying to convince voters — more than half of whom abstained in the last election — of the need to dislodge the 112-year-old party. Their options are bleak. The opposition’s Multi Party Charter is already [in danger of unraveling](, and the ANC paints the choice as between “[stability and chaos](.” WATCH: One reason the country remains divided is a legacy of its urban planning, which forced many black South Africans to the periphery of cities. Source: Bloomberg Almost all opinion polls leading up to voting day suggested that while it won’t win a majority, it will still be the biggest party. That means working with rival groups to govern Africa’s most developed economy. Any deal with the leftist Economic Freedom Fighters, which wants to nationalize banks and mines, or the uMkhonto weSizwe Party, whose leader is the graft-tainted former President Jacob Zuma, would turn off business and the rising Black middle class. There could be link-up with the business-friendly Inkatha Freedom Party or the Democratic Alliance. That would allow Ramaphosa to pursue reforms that have stabilized power supply and promised private participation in the near collapsed rail and port networks, while at the same time improve the provision of roads, water and health to the poorest areas. Business people appear confident about the election outcome, with [the rand gaining]( the most against the dollar of 16 major currencies over the past three months. A poor electoral performance could be the wake-up call the ANC needs to tackle the grave problems that have plagued South Africa since the days of apartheid. — [Arijit Ghosh]( Keeping warm in Slovo Park informal settlement outside Johannesburg on May 3. Photographer: Leon Sadiki/Bloomberg Global Must Reads The Israeli strike on a Palestinian encampment in Rafah that left dozens dead won’t prompt US President Joe Biden to freeze additional arms shipments to the country. The bombing – which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described as a “tragic mistake” – was short of [the large-scale military operation]( that the US has warned Israel against, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said. President Vladimir Putin appointed Alexey Dyumin to a [powerful post]( as secretary of Russia’s State Council, continuing the rise of an official who was his former personal bodyguard. Dyumin, 51, once claimed to have protected the president from a bear and is among an inner circle of officials who play ice hockey with him. The jury in former US President Donald Trump’s criminal hush-money trial will [begin considering their verdict]( after Judge Juan Merchan today gives the 12-person panel instructions on how to apply the law to the case. Trump faces 34 counts of falsifying business records for payments made to his former lawyer, Michael Cohen. Mexico’s election this year is by far the most violent since 2018, with 749 people connected to the races affected by political attacks that range from [threats to kidnappings and murders](. The country is headed for its largest-ever vote on Sunday, with 20,367 posts on the ballot, including the president, Mexico City’s mayor, eight governorships and 628 congressional seats, and numerous local positions. Opposition supporters in Mexico City on May 19. Photographer: Stephania Corpi/Bloomberg At least 20 Chinese students holding valid visas and studying at universities including Harvard, Yale and Johns Hopkins have been denied entry to the US since November, [Sheridan Prasso]( writes, citing personal accounts, their lawyers, blog posts and the Chinese government. The visa cancellations run [counter to efforts to expand education,]( cultural and business ties as agreed to by Biden and President Xi Jinping last year, and add to other anti-China actions like tariffs and the enforced sale of TikTok. Venezuela withdrew an invitation to European Union election monitors, reducing the chances that the international community [will accept the results]( of July’s presidential vote. Thai prosecutors decided to formally charge former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in a [royal defamation case](, creating fresh legal risks for the head of the political dynasty that controls the country’s ruling party. Leader Kim Jong Un said deploying spy satellites is essential to protect North Korea’s sovereignty after one of its rockets [failed in flight](, as his regime made good on a threat to drop “filth” on South Korea from balloons it sent over the border. Washington Dispatch Representative Bob Good of Virginia, the chairman of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, has long been an ardent warrior for the Republican Party and its causes. Even so, he’s run afoul of Trump, the party’s presidential candidate, who yesterday [endorsed his primary opponent](. The congressman, Trump exclaimed in a post on his Truth Social platform, “turned his back on our incredible movement, and was constantly attacking and fighting me until recently, when he gave a warm and ‘loving’ Endorsement — But really, it was too late.” Trump didn’t say how Good had fallen from grace, but he did support Ron DeSantis early in the primary campaign before switching to Trump. Since then, however, Good’s X feed has overflowed with praise for Trump and scorn for Democrats. Both he and his primary opponent, John McGuire, were among the many Republican politicians who went to the Manhattan courthouse where the former president is on trial. One thing to watch today: The US Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report on economic conditions is likely to show continued expansion through May even as surveys point to mixed conditions. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Bloomberg One year after President Bola Tinubu came to office, investor excitement over [his reforms has faded](, with some saying they’ll reconsider their positions if Nigeria stabilizes its currency and enacts more change. And Finally On Japan’s windy western coast, the world’s largest nuclear plant sits idle. Once the [crown jewel]( in a strategy to boost atomic power to 50% of the country’s energy mix by 2030, the Kashiwazaki Kariwa plant’s potential output of 8.2 gigawatts was enough to power more than 13 million households. Instead, its seven reactors were shuttered following the 2011 tsunami and meltdown at the Fukushima Dai-Ichi plant in eastern Japan that prompted the government to rethink its dependence on nuclear energy. That decision’s proving costly in resource-poor Japan. The operating floor inside the reactor unit 7 at Kashiwazaki Kariwa plant on Nov. 6, 2023. Photographer: Shoko Oda/Bloomberg More from Bloomberg - Listen to the [Big Take Asia podcast]( on rebooting the world’s biggest nuclear plant - Check out our [Bloomberg Investigates]( film series about untold stories and unraveled mysteries - [Bloomberg Opinion]( for a roundup of our most vital opinions on business, politics, economics, tech and more - [Next Africa](, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed - [Economics Daily]( for what the changing landscape means for policy makers, investors and you - [Green Daily]( for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance - Explore more newsletters at [Bloomberg.com](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. 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