Russia’s fearful elite

In Russia there’s room only for endorsement of Vladimir Putin’s leadership or silence. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( They are too afraid to say it publicly but some among Russia’s political and business elite are beginning to worry that they have a Putin problem. The torrent of international condemnation unleashed by the Russian president’s decision to go to war in Ukraine has made his country the world’s most sanctioned economy, with threats of worse to come. Thousands of Russian troops have been killed in an invasion with unclear objectives and few concrete achievements to date. Key Reading: - [Kremlin Insiders Are Alarmed Over Growing Cost of Putin’s War]( - [China Says it Will Keep Boosting Strategic Ties With Russia]( - [Putin Calls Time on Foreign Listings in Fresh Hit to Tycoons]( - [Sanctioned Russian Billionaire Tinkov Slams ‘Insane’ Ukraine War]( - [Russia Learns to Roll With Economic Punches as Shock FadesÂ]( Such enormous costs would spark intense debate in most countries, but in Russia there’s room only for endorsement of Vladimir Putin’s leadership, or silence. While a growing number of insiders regard the war as a catastrophic mistake, they view the risks of imprisonment and personal ruin as too great to consider challenging him. Putin’s domestic omnipotence is a problem for the U.S. and its allies as they crank up the sanctions pressure. The president dismisses warnings from his top officials about the devastating economic impact, convinced Russians support what he regards as a historic mission. His dominance also creates dangerous uncertainty over whether Putin would resort to nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Most of his inner circle were in the dark about his decision to invade, so who in the Kremlin could persuade him not to embark on a path that could lead to World War III? It’s a measure of their powerlessness that some in Russia are quietly hoping the West will show Putin a way out that lets him save face. But there’s little mood in the U.S. and Europe to reward him for inflicting such devastation on Ukraine. That may throw responsibility back to those in the Russian elite who are desperate to avert disaster for themselves and their country to find the courage to press Putin to change course. Destroyed houses in Irpin, Ukraine. Photographer: Alexey Furman/Getty Images Sign up [here]( for the Special Daily Brief: Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and share this newsletter with others too. They can sign up [here](. Global Headlines Kettle threat | Putin’s forces are threatening to [encircle]( an area on the eastern front in Ukraine that, according to one military analyst, holds as much as 40% of Kyiv’s troops in the region. After pounding the 300-mile line of contact with artillery, Russia may have more success with its new assault than it did in the first phase of the war, [Marc Champion]( reports. - Follow the latest with our [rolling coverage](. French showdown | French President Emmanuel Macron and Marine le Pen are gearing up for their only live TV [debate]( tonight in Paris just days before this weekend’s presidential runoff. Macron faces a tougher challenge than in 2017, when the nationalist leader gave a disastrous performance in a bruising sparring match in which they traded insults and clashed over how to fix a sluggish economy and fight terrorism. - Macron leads in polls, but he still faces one big risk: Voters are angry over the highest [inflation]( since the 1980s, and Le Pen is campaigning on the French losing their spending power. - Warnings are piling up that financial markets are underestimating the risks of a surprise Le Pen victory, which would be the biggest electoral [shock]( to European markets since Brexit. Anger spirals | The first fatality after weeks of protests in Sri Lanka over food and fuel shortages [intensified]( calls for President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to resign, with an opposition leader saying he was “responsible for every death.” The economic crisis, the worst since the country gained independence more than 70 years ago, has brought citizens to the streets demanding the ouster of the Rajapaksa family. Protesters near the president’s office in Colombo yesterday.  Source: AFP/Getty Images Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [The Islands the West Forgot But China Didn’t: Ruth Pollard]( - [Boris Johnson Won’t Find Refuge in Rwanda: Therese Raphael]( - [Le Pen’s Plan for Europe Is a Gift to Putin: Lionel Laurent]( Losing steam | Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s failed attempt to bring the electricity sector under state control takes the wind out of his nationalist agenda, [Max de Haldevang]( writes. Read [how]( the rest of AMLO’s term is unlikely to see much progress on his core plans to change the electoral system and the Defense Ministry. Explainers you can use - [How Sinn Fein’s Growth Is Roiling Irish Politics]( - [Climate Crisis? Fund Managers Stick With Big Oil: Green Insight]( - [The Weeks That Shook Twitter: How Elon Musk Built His Stake]( Tangled ties | The U.S. and Australian governments have voiced their [concern]( about the “lack of transparency” of a new security agreement between China and the Solomon Islands, a diplomatic victory for Beijing in a region which has usually turned to Washington and Canberra for support. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said yesterday the deal had officially been signed. Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with [David Westin]( weekdays from 12 to 1 p.m. ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2 p.m. ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here]( or check out prior episodes and guest clips [here](. News to Note - A Hong Kong court handed a 40-month prison [sentence]( to the first person convicted under a colonial-era sedition law since the handover to China, a sign authorities plan stiff punishments for critical speech as part of a broader political crackdown. - China is set to ratify two international treaties on forced [labor]( amid criticism over its treatment of the Uyghur ethnic minority, which has hurt trade ties with the U.S. and Europe. - The International Monetary Fund [slashed]( its world growth forecast by the most since the early months of the pandemic, and projected even faster inflation, after Russia invaded Ukraine and China renewed virus lockdowns. - The Joe Biden administration is at a [loss]( in responding to a federal judge’s ruling striking down the pandemic mask requirement for plane and rail travel. - Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa is neck-and-neck in opinion polls before Sunday’s elections with an opposition that vowed to [reverse]( policies it says undermine democracy and the rule of law. And finally ... Kim Jong Un’s North Korea is livening up its formerly staid state television broadcasts by mixing in drone footage, computer graphics, music video-style cuts and made-for-TV moments. One of the glossiest [productions]( from his propaganda machine came last month for a weapons test that combined feature-film shots and Kim in sunglasses and a black leather jacket apparently ordering his army — in slow motion — to fire an intercontinental ballistic missile. Kim walks around an intercontinental ballistic missile on March 24. Source: Korean Central News Agency/KNS via AP Photo Like Balance of Power? [Get unlimited access to Bloomberg.com](, where you'll find trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022