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Brexit extension is granted, HSBC eyes a revamp and Trump’s military win provides some consolation.
Means and ways
The European Union [agreed]( to delay Brexit by three months to Jan. 31 after French President Emmanuel Macron [dropped]( his opposition to the plan. While the move eases the risks of a no-deal divorce, Boris Johnson still looks likely to fall short of the two-thirds majority he needs to secure an early general election in today’s House of Commons vote. That’s because an extension on its own doesn’t satisfy the opposition Labour Party’s position that it won’t support a snap poll until the risk of a no-deal Brexit is completely removed. There are still [other ways]( for the prime minister to get the election he wants though, including through a no-confidence vote.
HSBC miss
HSBC said it’s embarking on its biggest [overhaul]( in years after third-quarter profit missed estimates. The bank warned of significant write-offs to come, likely to cover its European businesses and technology spending. While HSBC is heavily exposed to turbulence in Hong Kong, the bank said earnings there have been resilient. Other results to watch today include Alphabet Inc., AT&T Inc. and T-Mobile US Inc.
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No respite
President Donald Trump scored a win over the weekend with the [killing]( of Islamic State commander Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, but back in Washington, business grinds on. The House’s impeachment inquiry [resumes]( today with another slate of witnesses, after testimony last week bolstered the investigation into whether the president pressured the government of Ukraine for his personal political benefit. Last night wasn’t a great one for Trump either, with the president drawing [jeers]( from the hometown crowd at the World Series.
Markets mixed
Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.3% while Japan’s Topix index was little changed as Ă‚ÂĂ‚ÂĂ‚ÂĂ‚ÂĂ‚ÂĂ‚Âinvestors took profits following recent gains. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.2% lower at 5:45Ă‚ a.m. Eastern TimeĂ‚ with investors [bracing]( for a big week of corporate earnings. S&P 500 futures pointed to aĂ‚ positive start, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.842% and gold edged higher.
Coming up…
It’s a jam-packed week for central banks and economic data, with monetary decisions due from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and Bank of Canada, while U.S. GDP figures arrive on Wednesday and payrolls follow on Friday. The earnings slate is also full, with Facebook Inc., Mastercard Inc., GE Co., Pfizer Inc., Bristol-Myers Squibb Co., Bayer AG, Sony Corp. and Volkswagen AG among big names reporting this week.
What we've been reading
This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.
- Baghdadi [death]( eliminates Islamic State chief but not the group.
- JPMorgan weighs shifting [thousands]( of jobs out of New York area.
- It’s [gloom]( and doom at metals week.
- [Christine Lagarde]( faces peril on all sides at the ECB.
- Why [quantum computers]( will be super awesome, someday.
- What would happen if we [abolished]( time zones?
And finally, here’s what Joe's interested in this morning
Over the last several weeks, Tracy Alloway and I have recorded a series of podcasts that have greatly improved my understanding of the global financial system and important themes in macro-economics. It wasn't intentional really, but if you listen to a handful of them in the right order, you'll hopefully learn as much as I did about the state of the world right now. First I'd start with [this episode featuring Michael Pettis](, in which he explains the global spillovers that have resulted from the high savings rate in China. As a result of financial repression and a poor safety net, workers save an extraordinary amount of money, which then flows into world markets, having all kinds of repercussions (many of them undesirable). After that, [check out our latest episode with Brad Setser](, which explores the unusual world of Taiwanese life insurers. The country's high savings rate has led to a gigantic domestic life insurance industry, which has led to massive investment abroad in dollar-denominated assets. [Brad and a pseudonymous co-author]( have done fascinating work looking at how these firms hedge their currency risk. Then go back to this April, [for our chat with Zoltan Pozsar of Credit Suisse](, who connected the dots early on between voracious demand for dollar-denominated assets from foreign buyers (particularly out of Asia) and the brewing tension in the repo market. Finally, to round out the general ideas, [listen to Richard Koo]( on governments failing to learn the importance of Japan, [David Levy]( on the problem of too much private sector debt, and finally [David Beckworth on why the U.S. dollar has remained so stubbornly dominant for so long](, which really ties this all together. I learn a ton talking to Tracy and our guests, and I'm pretty confident that if you check out these latest few you'll feel more knowledgeable as well.
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