US GDP – Is a recession around the bend?

If you are unable to see the message below, [click here to view](. Will GDP once again fall below expectations or surprise thanks to the US consumer? [Visit our website]( [AvaTrade] TRADING PRODUCT US 2nd preliminary GDP – Thursday Aug 29 at 12:30 GMT As GDP growth continues to fall, discussion has shifted to an almost imminent recession – defined by two quarters of GDP contraction. Pundits point to a yield inversion, whereby the yields on 10 & 2-year bonds reverse as a signal; Democrats hope for one as close as possible to the 2020 elections; and –thanks to Trump’s raging trade wars –Europe is now threatened, as German GDP straddles the o-line from above. Over the past year, US GDP has consistently missed preliminary readings. And for this quarter, July’s first preliminary reading rested on 2.1%. Breaking below that would bode dark clouds ahead. Yet, the US is nowhere near recessionary territory. The labour market is still strong, inventories are down, and summertime consumer spending is up. Considering the weight of the US consumer as a major contributor to GDP, one expects import tariffs to make it progressively harder for the US consumer to hold up his end of the deal. Add to that a world less than enthusiastic about purchasing overpriced US goods and services, and the situation could soon become bleak. The 2nd reading of US economic growth on Thursday will include more real data than the 1st and provide a clearer indication of what that final number may be. An already weakening dollar has already priced in upcoming interest rate cuts. Watch as markets respond to the US economy. Trade the reaction. [TRADE USDJPY]( [Facebook]( [Twitter]( [LinkedIn]( [YouTube]( [Instagram]( Trading, CFDs, Spread-betting & Options carry risk and could result in the loss of your capital AVA Trade EU Ltd is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland (No.C53877). AVA Trade Ltd is regulated by the B.V.I Financial Services Commission. Ava Capital Markets Australia Pty Ltd is regulated by the ASIC (No.406684). Ava Capital Markets Pty is regulated by the South African Financial Services Board (FSP No.45984). Ava Trade Japan K.K. is regulated in Japan by the FSA (No.1662) and the FFAJ (No.1574). Read AvaTrade [risk disclosure]( before trading Forex, CFD’s, Spread-betting or FX Options. Forex/CFD, Spread-betting & FX Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Copyright © 2007-2019 AVA Trade EU Ltd. All rights reserved. [Unsubscribe](