[Altos Weekly Traders Edge] The Odds of Fixing Inflation While Avoiding a Recession...details inside

[HOLIDAY SPECIAL Claim Your ChatGPT: 5 Stocks for the Coming AI Boom report – FREE]( It's lifting Artificial Intelligence to a new level, answering follow up questions… admitting mistakes… challenging incorrect premises… rejecting inappropriate requests… and more. [Click here]( to claim your copy FREE » Sponsor Is A Soft Landing In The Bag? Weekly Market Overview Hi Traders, In recent discussions about the U.S. economy, there has been a shift in sentiment towards the possibility of a soft landing, a scenario where the economy slows down enough to control inflation without triggering a recession. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and our research team have expressed optimism about this outcome. Yellen, known for her cautious optimism, hinted last month that a soft landing is achievable, and our team, choed this sentiment, suggesting that while it's not yet a reality, it's within reach. This optimism is reflected in the financial markets, with bonds and equities showing positive trends. November was reportedly the best month ever for a standard 60/40 portfolio, as cited by financial media. A key factor behind this optimism is the rapid decline of inflation in the developed world, reversing what was once a significant surge in core prices. The nature of inflation is such that the impact of one-off shocks, like those experienced recently, tends to diminish over time. This leads to a natural decline in the year-over-year rate of inflation. However, the crucial question is whether these shocks have altered the underlying inflation trend, potentially leading to a higher post-shock inflation rate. This question remains unanswered and will likely remain so until more data becomes available, possibly by late 2024 or early 2025. The debate over the soft landing hinges on the concept of the kinked Phillips Curve. Achieving a soft landing, in this context, means transitioning to a state where inflation is close to the target rate, satisfying central bank requirements. However, if inflation remains uncomfortably high, the path forward becomes more challenging, potentially necessitating tighter policies and higher unemployment to achieve a modest reduction in inflation. Our perspective is particularly interesting in this debate. We emphasizes that the recent inflation shock was primarily driven by supply-side factors, rather than demand-side stimulus. This viewpoint suggests that the supply curve was temporarily shifted due to the impacts of COVID-19 and the Ukraine war but is now realigning, indicated by the falling inflation. However, the assumption that the supply side is easily adjustable might be overly optimistic. Global supply chains are currently influenced by geopolitics and trends like de-risking and near-shoring, which are less conducive to disinflationary pressures than in the past. Moreover, the substantial demand-side stimulus administered during the pandemic may have structurally altered the macroeconomic environment, skewing it towards higher inflation. While the supply side was a key driver of the fading inflation, this view raises the possibility that a soft landing might not be as certain as previously thought. For an inflation-targeting central bank, the source of inflation, whether supply-side or demand-side, is secondary to the inflation rate itself. The question of whether the U.S. economy will achieve a soft landing remains open. While there is optimism among experts and positive signs in financial markets, the complexities of supply and demand dynamics, influenced by recent global events and policy responses, add layers of uncertainty. The definitive answer may only become clear with time, as more economic data becomes available and the impacts of recent shocks on the inflation trend are fully understood. - The Team at Altos Trading Sponsor See how you can take advantage of market volatility with [TST’s top NASDAQ and NYSE stock alerts.]( [Click here]( to get free stock picks sent [directly to your email today]( (By clicking the link above, you are opting in to get a free subscription to our Top Stock Tips newsletter. You are also agreeing to the terms of our [privacy policy](. Unsubscribe at any time) Missed our latest Live Weekly Market Review? No problem, we’ve saved it for you! In this session, we explored the Market Overview, giving a comprehensive analysis and pinpointing key levels that are driving the market. We also examined the 36-Month Moving Average, revealing long-term market trends. A special topic of our discussion was on Option Strategy for the FED Meeting, explaining how to use options to profit from the market volatility. Our interactive segment, “Share Your Favorite Symbol,” ignited a lively and diverse discussion among participants. We concluded with our informative Ticker Q&A Roundtable. Don’t miss our live sessions every Tuesday evening for the latest market insights. If you can’t join us live, the recorded session will be available for you by Wednesday noon, allowing you to catch up at your convenience. This week our topics were... - Market Overview - Mapping Out Key Levels - Review 36-Month MA - Option Strategy for the FED Meeting - Share Your Favorite Symbol! - Ticker Q&A Roundtable [CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE FREE REPLAY]( Sponsor [New Customers earn 5.25% APY* (variable)]( Store your money with Cash Reserve, a high-yield account built for peace of mind. New customers earn 5.25% variable APY*—that’s 13x higher than the national savings rate. ** Plus, your money’s FDIC-insured up to $2M†at our program banks and no limits on withdrawals and transfers. **The national average savings account interest rate is reported by the FDIC (as of 5/15/23) as the average annual percentage yield (APY) for savings accounts with deposits under $100,000. [Sign Up Now!]( Disclaimer: The Altos Trading Alert Newsletter is published as an information service for subscribers, and it includes opinions as to buying, selling and holding various stocks and other securities. However, the publishers of the Altos Trading Alert Newsletter are not brokers or investment advisers, and do not provide investment advice or recommendations directed to any particular subscriber or in view of the particular circumstances of any particular person. Altos Trading, including its owner, does not participate in any trades issued through the alert services. Subscribers to Altos Trading or any other persons who buy, sell or hold securities should do so with caution and consult with a broker or investment adviser before doing so. Trading securities and options involves risk. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Investors need a broker to trade securities and options, and must meet suitability requirements. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performance figures are based on actual recommendations. Due to the time critical nature of trading, brokerage fees, and the activity of other subscribers, there is no guarantee that subscribers will mirror the performance of the service. Performance numbers shown are based on trades subscribers could enter based on the trade alerts. Altos Trading, LLC assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred by any individual or entity as a result of trade alerts or strategies taught through courses or coaching services. 7154 W State Street Suite 169 Boise Idaho 83714 USA Disclaimer: The Altos Trading Alert Newsletter is published as an information service for subscribers, and it includes opinions as to buying, selling and holding various stocks and other securities. However, the publishers of the Altos Trading Alert Newsletter are not brokers or investment advisers, and do not provide investment advice or recommendations directed to any particular subscriber or in view of the particular circumstances of any particular person. Altos Trading, including its owner, does not participate in any trades issued through the alert services. Subscribers to Altos Trading or any other persons who buy, sell or hold securities should do so with caution and consult with a broker or investment adviser before doing so. Trading securities and options involves risk. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Investors need a broker to trade securities and options, and must meet suitability requirements. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performance figures are based on actual recommendations. Due to the time critical nature of trading, brokerage fees, and the activity of other subscribers, there is no guarantee that subscribers will mirror the performance of the service. Performance numbers shown are based on trades subscribers could enter based on the trade alerts. Altos Trading, LLC assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred by any individual or entity as a result of trade alerts or strategies taught through courses or coaching services. 7154 W State Street Suite 169 Boise Idaho 83714 USA [Unsubscribe]( | [Change Subscriber Options](